December Medium/ Long Range

[psuhoffman]

Bad solutions don’t lock in either. But the problem is we have a box about 100 miles wide (sometimes smaller depending on the setup) we need the storm to track. Anything outside that box is a fail. 
 

We don’t care or notice if it ends up 200 v 300 miles outside the box in either direction because the result is the same for us. No snow. The permutations that result in no snow exponentially outnumber those that do in any threat from range. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m looking at this through Tapatalk and seeing that the message sent weird… no idea what’s up. Apologies if that sent as something truly odd.

Just delete your last 2 posts. Kinda seizure inducing.

[WEATHER53]

10 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

12z pain train 

 

 

Show all scenarios winter model crap.  Low over Norfolk or central Great Lakes.  It continues ridiculous. They need to use NHC parameters who can pinpoint a tropical low 300 miles east of Puerto Rico and place  it correctly 7 days later ashore at Cape Coral   
We do have cold air so that’s good enough for now and maybe when we get to 24-72 hours we will have some accurate predictive tools.

 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Just delete your last 2 posts. Kinda seizure inducing.

So annoying. Wonder if the iOS update broke something with Tapatalk. Warning to others - think it had to do with me typing in numbers.

back on topic now - apologies all!

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

Show all scenarios winter model crap.  Low over Norfolk or central Great Lakes.  It continues ridiculous. They need to use NHC parameters who can pinpoint a tropical low 300 miles east of Puerto Rico and place  it correctly 7 days later ashore at Cape Coral   
We do have cold air so that’s good enough for now and maybe when we get to 24-72 hours we will have some accurate predictive tools.

 

It’s 10 days away. 

[87storms]

15 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

That's 10 days out. It will change lol

I noticed this forum goes through a period of tracking rust early in the season where the general vibe is that it actually makes sense to track anything in that range.  I'm not even sure we've ever tracked a storm successfully 10 days out.  LWX couldn't even get the forecast for sun correct yesterday lol.  I know it's different than tracking an actual storm system, but yea.

However, I don't want anyone to get confused...I'm down for a snowstorm, but today is literally the first legitimately cold day we've had of the season.  It's early.

[Benjamn3]

10 days away in early December I’d take this all with a massive grain of salt, I’m just glad it’s not 60 degrees. I expect absofuckinylutely nothing anymore.  

[stormy]

As long as we stay in moderate to severe drought, these types of dropouts will not be unusual.  Here's the deal:

 

 

 

[winter_warlock]

59 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I noticed this forum goes through a period of tracking rust early in the season where the general vibe is that it actually makes sense to track anything in that range.  I'm not even sure we've ever tracked a storm successfully 10 days out.  LWX couldn't even get the forecast for sun correct yesterday lol.  I know it's different than tracking an actual storm system, but yea.

However, I don't want anyone to get confused...I'm down for a snowstorm, but today is literally the first legitimately cold day we've had of the season.  It's early.

 Agreed!!!

[winter_warlock]

44 minutes ago, stormy said:

As long as we stay in moderate to severe drought, these types of dropouts will not be unusual.  Here's the deal:

 

 

 

210 hours out. It will change more then a few times lol

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, Benjamn3 said:

10 days away in early December I’d take this all with a massive grain of salt, I’m just glad it’s not 60 degrees. I expect absofuckinylutely nothing anymore.  

Amen brother!!!

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

So annoying. Wonder if the iOS update broke something with Tapatalk. Warning to others - think it had to do with me typing in numbers.

back on topic now - apologies all!

It happens  bro!!

[stormy]

36 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

210 hours out. It will change more then a few times lol

I hope you're right!   Droughts always break eventually.    What better way than with 6 - 12 inches of snow.   D.C. can have the 12 inches.  I'll take 6.

[WxUSAF]

2 hours ago, dailylurker said:

Now the EURO will have it lol

It moved a lot closer to something actually, yes.  

 

Look at the two shortwaves out west at 12z vs 0z

[winter_warlock]

17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It moved a lot closer to something actually, yes.  

 

Look at the two shortwaves out west at 12z vs 0z

Definitely  an improvement!

[CAPE]

Still a pretty decent signal on the 12z GEFS for the 8th.

[Terpeast]

Euro and gfs (at least the ops) might be switching places. But this has always been a low confidence outlook, and I’m not holding my breath until we’re 4-5 days out, which takes us to next Tuesday-Wednesday.

At least its cold and will be that way for a while. Reminds me of the 1980s when getting cold air was easy, but snow was hard to come by. 

[Ji]

The EPS snowfall mean has dropped from 3 inches to .08 inches in the past 36 hours for me smh

[CAPE]

This might be a good read for those who tend to get 'concerned' about the pattern shifting from favorable to unfavorable before we even get into the favorable period.

 

[Ji]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

This might be a good read for those who tend to get 'concerned' about the pattern shifting from favorable to unfavorable before we even get into the favorable period.

 

if you are trying to encourage us..that didnt really work

[Weather Will]

Cold day for the end of November.... baby steps...

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

if you are trying to encourage us..that didnt really work

The pattern change is probably temporary is the takeaway. Why do you care if its milder the second half of December? It just doesnt snow much in these parts until after Xmas- that's reality. Let the pattern become favorable again when we actually have a chance.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Cold day for the end of November.... baby steps...

Wintry feeling, a day before winter begins.

32 here now after a high of 37.

[Terpeast]

Just now, CAPE said:

The pattern change is probably temporary is the takeaway. Why do you care if its milder the second half of December? It just doesnt snow much in these parts until after Xmas- that's reality. Let the pattern become favorable again when we actually have a chance.

To add to this, even if we go milder after 12/10, we still have a ridge over AK which should maintain our source of cold air. It's not as if the pac jet will ape and wipe out all cold air from the entire NA continent, like it did early last December and we had to wait 4-5 weeks until it finally reloaded.

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

To add to this, even if we go milder after 12/10, we still have a ridge over AK which should maintain our source of cold air. It's not as if the pac jet will ape and wipe out all cold air from the entire NA continent, like it did early last December and we had to wait 4-5 weeks until it finally reloaded.

The h5 look on the LR GEFS for mid month might cause some panic, but it isn't a torch look for the east. Surface temps are actually slightly below normal for the MA verbatim at the end of the run. The EPS h5 look is still quite acceptable for mid month.

[Terpeast]

21 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The h5 look on the LR GEFS for mid month might cause some panic, but it isn't a torch look for the east. Surface temps are actually slightly below normal for the MA verbatim at the end of the run. The EPS h5 look is still quite acceptable for mid month.

Agree. More like U40s/L50s for the highs and lows around freezing or just below. Sometimes we can snow with that if well timed. 

End of GEFS run shows cold source developing even when we go mild. Wouldn’t take that long to get back into a colder pattern especially if it coincides with the MJO going into 7 and 8.

[MillvilleWx]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Euro and gfs (at least the ops) might be switching places. But this has always been a low confidence outlook, and I’m not holding my breath until we’re 4-5 days out, which takes us to next Tuesday-Wednesday.

At least its cold and will be that way for a while. Reminds me of the 1980s when getting cold air was easy, but snow was hard to come by. 

This is likely the story for the entire winter. One of the reasons I'm not bullish on snow for these parts and remained below normal for my forecast. Hopefully we can luck into a really good one. I do think that is on the table this year compared to some of our recent years. 

[NorthArlington101]

Well, we’re so cold we somehow pull a little snow out of that ugly evolution, so that’s nice.

[Terpeast]

28 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

This is likely the story for the entire winter. One of the reasons I'm not bullish on snow for these parts and remained below normal for my forecast. Hopefully we can luck into a really good one. I do think that is on the table this year compared to some of our recent years. 

Your contest numbers are slightly more bullish than my own…

[MillvilleWx]

11 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Your contest numbers are slightly more bullish than my own…

I upped them a touch after my initial. I think we see a few events for the region and one could be a big one if all things break. I think a colder winter is plausible this go around, but of course moisture and timing will be our biggest hurdles. I think we see plenty of storminess east of the Mississippi, but no blocking will likely cause a lot of failure.