December Medium/ Long Range

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

And that is going to take a strong NS wave to dig southward further west. GFS does this for the next weekend event, while the Euro misses- it does it with another piece of NS energy a couple days later, but yeah as depicted it's a warm storm with low pressure tracking to our west.

You wonder if the Canadian and GFS are better at handling the NS energy and therein homing in on a threat quicker than the Euro?

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

And that is going to take a strong NS wave to dig southward further west. GFS does this for the next weekend event, while the Euro misses- it does it with another piece of NS energy a couple days later, but yeah as depicted it's a warm storm with low pressure tracking to our west.

I see what you’re saying. It doesn’t have to completely phase, the NS just needs to dig enough to pick up energy from the SW. the CMC does it too. Euro completely misses by hundreds of miles, and then completely phases with a second NS wave. Drastically different solutions, very low confidence forecast. 

[CAPE]

Just now, Terpeast said:

I see what you’re saying. It doesn’t have to completely phase, the NS just needs to dig enough to pick up energy from the SW. the CMC does it too. Euro completely misses by hundreds of miles, and then completely phases with a second NS wave. 

Exactly. Need some interaction to get that energy involved. What the GFS does here is ideal-

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Exactly. Need some interaction to get that energy involved. What the GFS does here is ideal-

the ECMWF actually made a pretty drastic shift towards a more potent NS. hopefully it isn’t just a blip, because it’s much more similar to the GFS than 00z

[Kevin Reilly]

10 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm curious...anywhere I can see what the SSTs were for one of our major coastal storms?

December 19, 2009, we had 23.2" of snow and the SST at ACY was 53f.

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You wonder if the Canadian and GFS are better at handling the NS energy and therein homing in on a threat quicker than the Euro?

There are so many shortwaves embedded in the NS flow its chaos this far out. The character of the western ridge at specific times is critical too- the axis, whether its more amped or broader..

[Kevin Reilly]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

The Euro otoh progresses the ridge axis further east with somewhat lower amplitude, the NS energy in the flow doesnt dig south enough, and it keeps the southwestern energy buried underneath with no interaction.

Well, I see we are truly back to the good old days with Euro burying energy out west and GFS sending the energy out all at once to create our snowstorm.

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the ECMWF actually made a pretty drastic shift towards a more potent NS. hopefully it isn’t just a blip, because it’s much more similar to the GFS than 00z

Looks like a step in that direction. See what happens over the next few runs. The GFS will probably come up with completely different evolution lol.

[Terpeast]

24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the ECMWF actually made a pretty drastic shift towards a more potent NS. hopefully it isn’t just a blip, because it’s much more similar to the GFS than 00z

Are you looking at that energy over Alberta/Montana? 

Its so chaotic its hard to pick out the individual pieces

[brooklynwx99]

16 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Are you looking at that energy over Alberta/Montana? 

Its so chaotic its hard to pick out the individual pieces

yes, the piece over Western Canada that wasn’t really there at 00z

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yes, the piece over Western Canada that wasn’t really there at 00z

I figured, yeah. Lets hope it’s not just a blip, but a start of a trend. I think canadian has a compromise between the two camps

[Eskimo Joe]

4 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

December 19, 2009, we had 23.2" of snow and the SST at ACY was 53f.

Yup. Wind direction matters. You get a screaming east wind and it's sleet city. But turn that into a north-northeast or northeast wind and we're draining cold air from interior New England. Geography matters.

[Terpeast]

06z gfs phases the two pieces even more than 0z

old run

 

new run

[yoda]

I believe 12z ICON would be good for us... the run ends at 180, but 1037mb HP up top in Canada moving east in tandem with the moisture 

It is a bit slower than the GFS, but it looks to have the same idea.  Definitely not in the Euro camp 

[WxUSAF]

13 minutes ago, yoda said:

I believe 12z ICON would be good for us... the run ends at 180, but 1037mb HP up top in Canada moving east in tandem with the moisture 

It is a bit slower than the GFS, but it looks to have the same idea.  Definitely not in the Euro camp 

Agreed. Slower than gfs, but looks like 6z gfs with how it’s starting to phase the shortwaves.

[winter_warlock]

 Fwiw.  Sterling  mentions next weekends storm in their disco

. Always nice when they finally see what we see lol....

 

"The noted warm up is to be short lived as another shot
of cold advection invades the area. On Friday, area-wide high
temperatures return to the mid 30s to low 40s, with 20s in the
mountains. Another system may loom next weekend, but details vary
greatly between model solutions".

[Terpeast]

8 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Fwiw.  Sterling  mentions next weekends storm in their disco

. Always nice when they finally see what we see lol....

 

"The noted warm up is to be short lived as another shot
of cold advection invades the area. On Friday, area-wide high
temperatures return to the mid 30s to low 40s, with 20s in the
mountains. Another system may loom next weekend, but details vary
greatly between model solutions".

Yeah, they’re seeing the same thing we are. Just a very low confidence outlook at this point. Let’s hope the gfs/cmc trends this morning converge and the euro caves. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, they’re seeing the same thing we are. Just a very low confidence outlook at this point. Let’s hope the gfs/cmc trends this morning converge and the euro caves. 

Gfs looking totally different at uppers at 132hrs compared to last run. So there’s that… 

[Heisy]

Not loving what I see on the GFS through 135, less energy diving down from N/S and Baja energy seems weaker more positively tilted.


.

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs looking totally different at uppers at 132hrs compared to last run. So there’s that… 

Yeah and all in the bad direction so far lol

[TSSN+]

Just now, Heisy said:

Not loving what I see on the GFS through 135, less energy diving down from N/S and Baja energy seems weaker more positively tilted.


.

Yup euro wins when it comes to getting trash. It shows a snow storm at 180 it’s wrong but a cutter boom lock it in lol 

[Ji]

Yeah and all in the bad direction so far lol

We can’t even enjoy anything for 24 hours

[TSSN+]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Yeah and all in the bad direction so far lol

Yup totally expected. lol 

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Yup totally expected. lol 

Now the EURO will have it lol

[Heisy]

CMC looks somewhat intriguing at 144 hours see if it can produce anything though


.

[Heisy]

It does look like it wants to bring out the Baja low but idk if it will have enough juice from the N/S to create a strong enough low.



.

[TSSN+]

12z pain train 

 

 

[winter_warlock]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

12z pain train 

 

 

That's 10 days out. It will change lol

[TSSN+]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

That's 10 days out. It will change lol

Cutter lock it in haha. 

[winter_warlock]

Hey guys I wouldn't  get to discouraged  about any modeling  right now.. Its still 8 to 9 days out. It will change many times before we get inside 72 hours!! I wouldn't wanna be in the bullseye this far out lol