December Medium/ Long Range

[Jebman]

34 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

Then the west will dry out and the Mid Atlantic will turn very cold and become very active with numerous opportunities to maximize snow potential. Sorry, Palisades and Mammoth. It's the Mid Atlantic's turn this winter.

Reminds me of 2013-14 hmmmmm.........

[Daniel Boone]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm curious...anywhere I can see what the SSTs were for one of our major coastal storms?

Yeah, I did know but, can't remember right off. Noaa I think has those Archived. 

[yoda]

00z GFS looks good at 186...

[NorthArlington101]

00z GFS looks good at 186...

Mod snow everywhere at 192

Is this the first LR threat we’ve had sustain for two runs in a row? We back?

[NorthArlington101]

Solid 5-8” through 1am

[yoda]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Mod snow everywhere at 192

Is this the first LR threat we’ve had sustain for two runs in a row? We back?

We got it under 200 hours lol

[brooklynwx99]

the 8th might be trending towards a legit storm risk… more STJ involvement due to the Baja energy becoming more progressive, confluence is in place, Arctic airmass leading in, and ideal Pacific pattern 

[NorthArlington101]

Favorite part of that run - temps are mid to low 20s. Cold smoke.

[Scraff]

Love the GFS!  It’s good to at least see the possibilities popping up. Let’s hope it’s the December to remember. 

[NorthArlington101]

[yoda]

00z CMC is about a day later than the GFS, and drops a major ice storm into GA/SC/NC

Nice hit for S VA into NC snow wise... 

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z CMC is about a day later than the GFS, and drops a major ice storm into GA/SC/NC

Big hit for S VA into NC snow wise... 

Need it to come north a lil

[yoda]

Some of the soundings are fascinating in GA/SC... yes it's the CMC at Day 8... but 30 degrees with freezing rain and 850c temp of +8

[brooklynwx99]

you really want to see these earlier solutions with Baja energy ejecting… antecedent air mass is Arctic. wait longer and you run the risk of losing the confluence and a staler airmass

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

We got it under 200 hours lol

Gotta get it to Wednesday morn or it doesn't count, lol

[TSSN+]

Of course euro shows nothing and then rain. Hopefully the days of euro reign is over 

[Herb@MAWS]

2 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

Of course euro shows nothing and then rain. Hopefully the days of euro reign is over 

Hopefully the days of euro rain is over. 

[CAPE]

6z also has the MA snowstorm.

The GFS depicts near perfect timing with phasing multiple NS shortwaves, and involves significant energy from Baja.

[CAPE]

The Euro otoh progresses the ridge axis further east with somewhat lower amplitude, the NS energy in the flow doesnt dig south enough, and it keeps the southwestern energy buried underneath with no interaction.

[CAPE]

Strong signal on the 6z GEFS for a potential event a week out.

[frd]

49 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The Euro otoh progresses the ridge axis further east with somewhat lower amplitude, the NS energy in the flow doesnt dig south enough, and it keeps the southwestern energy buried underneath with no interaction.

Does the Euro bias of burying energy in the SW still exist after all these years ? 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The Euro otoh progresses the ridge axis further east with somewhat lower amplitude, the NS energy in the flow doesnt dig south enough, and it keeps the southwestern energy buried underneath with no interaction.

Not saying it's wrong but the euro, even after the upgrades, has been notorious for holding energy back in the SW.

[Ralph Wiggum]

37 minutes ago, frd said:

Does the Euro bias of burying energy in the SW still exist after all these years ? 

Ha! Yes.

[Terpeast]

0z CMC more similar to GFS than the Euro. Just a day later. Same with ens. The canadian has been doing just as well as these two so I wouldn’t sleep on the canadian. 

[Terpeast]

However! The canadian ens shows 2 waves, one on 12/9 and 12/11… which tells me that geps is split between gfs and euro camps. 

[CAPE]

41 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not saying it's wrong but the euro, even after the upgrades, has been notorious for holding energy back in the SW.

No idea which one is 'more correct'. Possibly neither. I was just explaining what leads to such different outcomes in the current GFS/Euro simulations.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

No idea which one is 'more correct'. Possibly neither. I was just explaining what leads to such different outcomes in the current GFS/Euro simulations.

The key is getting that sw energy to eject early enough. Dec 8 or 9 will work, but dec 10 might be too late as the pattern relaxes

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

No idea which one is 'more correct'. Possibly neither. I was just explaining what leads to such different outcomes in the current GFS/Euro simulations.

Makes perfect sense tbh. The energy in the SW, more often than not, seems to hold the key to many of out trackable events. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Makes perfect sense tbh. The energy in the SW, more often than not, seems to hold the key to many of out trackable events. 

Yeah esp when the pattern is NS dominant. Difficult to get a good moisture feed with modest waves embedded in a dominant flow from the NW.

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

The key is getting that sw energy to eject early enough. Dec 8 or 9 will work, but dec 10 might be too late as the pattern relaxes

And that is going to take a strong NS wave to dig southward further west. GFS does this for the next weekend event, while the Euro misses- it does it with another piece of NS energy a couple days later, but yeah as depicted it's a warm storm with low pressure tracking to our west.