Heisy Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 18z euro Ai was off the chart weeniegasm Mother of god.jpg. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 On 12/21/2024 at 3:29 AM, Heisy said: 18z euro Ai was off the chart weeniegasm Mother of god.jpg . Expand you know, maybe i can manifest the blizzard redux into existence if i just remind everyone about it everyday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 On 12/21/2024 at 2:49 AM, Terpeast said: I certainly believe that is possible, even after a warm and snowless stretch of winters here. Less snow overall, but more variance, and when the next big one hits, records are going to get shattered. Could be 2 weeks from now. Could be 10 years. Who knows Expand The winter of 2015-2016 is a perfect example of this. It was a shutout until that one event saved winter. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 I don't necessarily think our window of opportunity is limited to early- mid Jan. Looking way out there towards the end of Jan/into early Feb on the latest Euro weeklies(fwiw), a period where many have suggested the pattern will become hostile/shit the blinds- it probably does trend more towards a typical Nina, but this is far from a shutout pattern should it materialize. It in fact looks much like h5 leading up to the early Jan 2022 snowstorm. If that EPO ridge keeps on keeping on, we should continue to see opportunities for a wave to track underneath along the thermal boundary at times, with a flatter SER. 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 With the very cold temps coming. Over the weekend I had to post this!! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 On 12/21/2024 at 3:43 AM, CAPE said: I don't necessarily think our window of opportunity is limited to early- mid Jan. Looking way out there towards the end of Jan/into early Feb on the latest Euro weeklies(fwiw), a period where many have suggested the pattern will become hostile/shit the blinds- it probably does trend more towards a typical Nina, but this is far from a shutout pattern should it materialize. It in fact looks much like h5 leading up to the early Jan 2022 snowstorm. If that EPO ridge keeps on keeping on, we should continue to see opportunities for a wave to track underneath along the thermal boundary at times, with a flatter SER. Expand Great post! A lot of people freak out when they hear about the dreaded WAR/SER thinking everything is bad. I actually don't mind some SER influence so long as the thermal gradient lies somewhere south of here, mainly between CVA and SVA. This is one way to score in Ninas and can produce some cold smoke type events that don't necessarily need a bunch of QPF to cash. This season is still not one I'm banking on a big storm just given all that has to go right for it to occur, but we can manage with a variety of setups with this being one of the better ones to chose from for a light to moderate type event. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 On 12/21/2024 at 3:29 AM, Heisy said: 18z euro Ai was off the chart weeniegasm Mother of god.jpg . Expand Noticed this too when assessing guidance as the 00z comes in. Can't say I hate it. The 6hr precip panels were actually very nice to look at for the period of interest after 1/1. I'm keeping the faith as we turn the calendar forward. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 On 12/21/2024 at 3:53 AM, MillvilleWx said: Great post! A lot of people freak out when they hear about the dreaded WAR/SER thinking everything is bad. I actually don't mind some SER influence so long as the thermal gradient lies somewhere south of here, mainly between CVA and SVA. This is one way to score in Ninas and can produce some cold smoke type events that don't necessarily need a bunch of QPF to cash. This season is still not one I'm banking on a big storm just given all that has to go right for it to occur, but we can manage with a variety of setups with this being one of the better ones to chose from for a light to moderate type event. Expand Agree 100% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dendrimer77 Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 On 12/21/2024 at 3:53 AM, MillvilleWx said: Great post! A lot of people freak out when they hear about the dreaded WAR/SER thinking everything is bad. I actually don't mind some SER influence so long as the thermal gradient lies somewhere south of here, mainly between CVA and SVA. This is one way to score in Ninas and can produce some cold smoke type events that don't necessarily need a bunch of QPF to cash. This season is still not one I'm banking on a big storm just given all that has to go right for it to occur, but we can manage with a variety of setups with this being one of the better ones to chose from for a light to moderate type event. Expand I prefer the gradient to be from approximately Shot Pump down to the hell pits of Charlotte, being that I live in Charlottesville. Here's to hoping we can all score a solid winter storm (or three) worthy of a Jeb walk and a few brews along the way! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 On 12/21/2024 at 3:53 AM, MillvilleWx said: Great post! A lot of people freak out when they hear about the dreaded WAR/SER thinking everything is bad. I actually don't mind some SER influence so long as the thermal gradient lies somewhere south of here, mainly between CVA and SVA. This is one way to score in Ninas and can produce some cold smoke type events that don't necessarily need a bunch of QPF to cash. This season is still not one I'm banking on a big storm just given all that has to go right for it to occur, but we can manage with a variety of setups with this being one of the better ones to chose from for a light to moderate type event. Expand Once we get into Jan, thumps to dryslot/west track work here (and waaay down here hi!) without a -30 airmass needed in advance lol. While not ideal, who cares because ideal works less than a third of the time anyway. Even that might be a stretch too lolol. Imo only, if ensembles are right....., early Jan is a heater pattern for the MA. Doesn't mean big storm but small stuff in succession is the next best thing 13 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 On 12/21/2024 at 4:56 AM, Dendrimer77 said: I prefer the gradient to be from approximately Shot Pump down to the hell pits of Charlotte, being that I live in Charlottesville. Here's to hoping we can all score a solid winter storm (or three) worthy of a Jeb walk and a few brews along the way! Expand I prefer Climax gradients. They're more fun and I live just north of it lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 On 12/21/2024 at 2:21 AM, Terpeast said: A year ago, I did a statistical experiment to see how much our annual snowfall climo would change in the next couple of decades, and what I found was that while it would go down by 15-20% overall, the biggest storms would become even wetter with bigger snowfall totals provided it is still cold enough. Jan 6-8, 1996 was a very cold storm, and if it happened today, our totals would actually be much bigger than it was then. Instead of IAD getting 25”, the same storm might actually produce 33” if it happened in a warmer (and wetter) climate. Imagine that. Expand On 12/21/2024 at 2:57 AM, bncho said: Spoof totals to excite the snow weenies! IAD: 32.8” DCA: 25.9” BWI: 29.1” Expand Meh...DCA will still find a way to never record more than 17.8 inches, even while locations right nearby are pushing 3 feet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 21, 2024 Author Share Posted December 21, 2024 On 12/21/2024 at 1:59 PM, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Meh...DCA will still find a way to never record more than 17.8 inches, even while locations right nearby are pushing 3 feet!! Expand There’s a reason I use IAD and it’s not just because I live closest to it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 On 12/21/2024 at 3:39 AM, Eskimo Joe said: The winter of 2015-2016 is a perfect example of this. It was a shutout until that one event saved winter. Expand Not only a shutout prior to that big storm, but record warmth that December beforehand! I still recall going out Christmas Eve and it was literally hazy and humid out. A lot of people like to frown on that winter as a one-and-done failure. That is sort of true, but I think people overlook that we actually were a little colder than normal that January (when the blizzard occurred) into the first half of February. We also did get a small snow/ice event around Presidents' Day. And I think there were a couple of other at least small trackable threats that ended up not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 Today’s 12z run is gonna be the most important run since the winter solstice. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 On 12/21/2024 at 2:00 PM, Terpeast said: There’s a reason I use IAD and it’s not just because I live closest to it Expand Likewise, I live in suburban MD now. For several years I lived in DC, around the Capitol Hill neighborhood. But even there, I noticed the amount of snow I got was more than what DCA reported (not hugely different, but noticeable!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 On 12/21/2024 at 2:11 PM, 87storms said: Today’s 12z run is gonna be the most important run since the winter solstice. Expand Damn. sun angle is working against us now after the official solstice late last night! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 On 12/21/2024 at 2:13 PM, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Damn. sun angle is working against us now after the official solstice late last night! Expand Got to get some snow before sun angle season starts next Friday 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 Euro says we all snow shower Christmas eve. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 On 12/21/2024 at 2:09 PM, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Not only a shutout prior to that big storm, but record warmth that December beforehand! I still recall going out Christmas Eve and it was literally hazy and humid out. A lot of people like to frown on that winter as a one-and-done failure. That is sort of true, but I think people overlook that we actually were a little colder than normal that January (when the blizzard occurred) into the first half of February. We also did get a small snow/ice event around Presidents' Day. And I think there were a couple of other at least small trackable threats that ended up not happening. Expand Was living in York-New Salem and commuting to Gaithersburg. We had praying mantis on the Christmas garland it was so warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 On 12/21/2024 at 2:11 PM, 87storms said: Today’s 12z run is gonna be the most important run since the winter solstice. Expand "Of all the 12Z runs I've seen, this one is definitely the most....recent" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 This is no joke, I swear. Last night I dreamed that somehow the jet stream oriented itself so that it was running directly from Mongolia right over the pole to us. I was like a Cassandra telling people to be ready for record cold but my neighbors didn't believe me. Unfortunately I woke up before anything happened but it's gotta be a sign for something. 6 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 On 12/21/2024 at 2:28 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Euro says we all snow shower Christmas eve. Expand Euro has had a patch of snow showers for us on Christmas Eve on and off for a couple of days. I’m just skeptical because the system is pretty far north and as depicted it wouldn’t be anything more than a half hour of snow tv. Easy to miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 On 12/21/2024 at 2:38 PM, IronTy said: This is no joke, I swear. Last night I dreamed that somehow the jet stream oriented itself so that it was running directly from Mongolia right over the pole to us. I was like a Cassandra telling people to be ready for record cold but my neighbors didn't believe me. Unfortunately I woke up before anything happened but it's gotta be a sign for something. Expand It’s a sign of something alright…. Seek help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 On 12/21/2024 at 2:38 PM, IronTy said: This is no joke, I swear. Last night I dreamed that somehow the jet stream oriented itself so that it was running directly from Mongolia right over the pole to us. I was like a Cassandra telling people to be ready for record cold but my neighbors didn't believe me. Unfortunately I woke up before anything happened but it's gotta be a sign for something. Expand @WEATHER53 approves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 Winter solstice, no snow before the 1st, someone feeling lucky should give us new mojo and open the January thread.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 Not a peep on the 12z gfs? Sheesh. Miller B bomb just misses right after NY but the followup system around the 6th just misses a full phase beast. Going to be fun tracking soon! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 On 12/21/2024 at 5:51 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Not a peep on the 12z gfs? Sheesh. Miller B bomb just misses right after NY but the followup system around the 6th just misses a full phase beast. Going to be fun tracking soon! Expand Would be nice to track something while off of work! Let's go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 Any thoughts on the Tuesday night system off North Carolina trending better and glancing the south east parts of this forum? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 On 12/21/2024 at 2:13 PM, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Damn. sun angle is working against us now after the official solstice late last night! Expand That's ok...daytime snow is where it's at. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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