December Medium/ Long Range

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

Spoof totals to excite the snow weenies!
IAD: 32.8”
DCA: 25.9”
BWI: 29.1”
 

2009-10 and 2016 is also proof that this is already happening (inflated snow storm totals in a warming climate). Not just here, but also in other places. 

[bncho]

Just now, Terpeast said:

2009 and 2016 is also proof that this is already happening (inflated snow storm totals in a warming climate). Not just here, but also in other places. 

Being serious though, you’re 100% right. Areas that are still more than cold enough for snow have seen increases in average snow totals.

Now we just need a blizzard to hit. 2016-2009=7. 2009-2003=6. 2016+7=2023. (7+6)/2=6.5. 2016+6.5=2022.5. We’re due for a blizzard, according to the math.
Let’s get 3ft of snow.

[Heisy]

18z euro Ai was off the chart weeniegasm

Mother of god.jpg






.

[bncho]

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

18z euro Ai was off the chart weeniegasm

Mother of god.jpg






.

you know, maybe i can manifest the blizzard redux into existence if i just remind everyone about it everyday.

[Eskimo Joe]

49 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I certainly believe that is possible, even after a warm and snowless stretch of winters here. Less snow overall, but more variance, and when the next big one hits, records are going to get shattered. 

Could be 2 weeks from now. Could be 10 years. Who knows

The winter of 2015-2016 is a perfect example of this. It was a shutout until that one event saved winter.

[CAPE]

I don't necessarily think our window of opportunity is limited to early- mid Jan. Looking way out there towards the end of Jan/into early Feb on the latest Euro weeklies(fwiw), a period where many have suggested the pattern will become hostile/shit the blinds- it probably does trend more towards a typical Nina, but this is far from a shutout pattern should it materialize. It in fact looks much like h5 leading up to the early Jan 2022 snowstorm. If that EPO ridge keeps on keeping on, we should continue to see opportunities for a wave to track underneath along the thermal boundary at times, with a flatter SER.

 

[winter_warlock]

With the very cold temps coming.  Over the weekend I had to post this!!

 

[MillvilleWx]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I don't necessarily think our window of opportunity is limited to early- mid Jan. Looking way out there towards the end of Jan/into early Feb on the latest Euro weeklies(fwiw), a period where many have suggested the pattern will become hostile/shit the blinds- it probably does trend more towards a typical Nina, but this is far from a shutout pattern should it materialize. It in fact looks much like h5 leading up to the early Jan 2022 snowstorm. If that EPO ridge keeps on keeping on, we should continue to see opportunities for a wave to track underneath along the thermal boundary at times, with a flatter SER.

 

Great post! A lot of people freak out when they hear about the dreaded WAR/SER thinking everything is bad. I actually don't mind some SER influence so long as the thermal gradient lies somewhere south of here, mainly between CVA and SVA. This is one way to score in Ninas and can produce some cold smoke type events that don't necessarily need a bunch of QPF to cash. This season is still not one I'm banking on a big storm just given all that has to go right for it to occur, but we can manage with a variety of setups with this being one of the better ones to chose from for a light to moderate type event. 

[MillvilleWx]

24 minutes ago, Heisy said:

18z euro Ai was off the chart weeniegasm

Mother of god.jpg






.

Noticed this too when assessing guidance as the 00z comes in. Can't say I hate it. The 6hr precip panels were actually very nice to look at for the period of interest after 1/1. I'm keeping the faith as we turn the calendar forward. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Great post! A lot of people freak out when they hear about the dreaded WAR/SER thinking everything is bad. I actually don't mind some SER influence so long as the thermal gradient lies somewhere south of here, mainly between CVA and SVA. This is one way to score in Ninas and can produce some cold smoke type events that don't necessarily need a bunch of QPF to cash. This season is still not one I'm banking on a big storm just given all that has to go right for it to occur, but we can manage with a variety of setups with this being one of the better ones to chose from for a light to moderate type event. 

Agree 100%

[Dendrimer77]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

Great post! A lot of people freak out when they hear about the dreaded WAR/SER thinking everything is bad. I actually don't mind some SER influence so long as the thermal gradient lies somewhere south of here, mainly between CVA and SVA. This is one way to score in Ninas and can produce some cold smoke type events that don't necessarily need a bunch of QPF to cash. This season is still not one I'm banking on a big storm just given all that has to go right for it to occur, but we can manage with a variety of setups with this being one of the better ones to chose from for a light to moderate type event. 

I prefer the gradient to be from approximately Shot Pump down to the hell pits of Charlotte, being that I live in Charlottesville. Here's to hoping we can all score a solid winter storm (or three) worthy of a Jeb walk and a few brews along the way!

[Bob Chill]

6 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Great post! A lot of people freak out when they hear about the dreaded WAR/SER thinking everything is bad. I actually don't mind some SER influence so long as the thermal gradient lies somewhere south of here, mainly between CVA and SVA. This is one way to score in Ninas and can produce some cold smoke type events that don't necessarily need a bunch of QPF to cash. This season is still not one I'm banking on a big storm just given all that has to go right for it to occur, but we can manage with a variety of setups with this being one of the better ones to chose from for a light to moderate type event. 

Once we get into Jan, thumps to dryslot/west track work here (and waaay down here hi!) without a -30 airmass needed in advance lol. While not ideal, who cares because ideal works less than a third of the time anyway. Even that might be a stretch too lolol. 

Imo only, if ensembles are right....., early Jan is a heater pattern for the MA. Doesn't mean big storm but small stuff in succession is the next best thing 

 

[Bob Chill]

6 hours ago, Dendrimer77 said:

I prefer the gradient to be from approximately Shot Pump down to the hell pits of Charlotte, being that I live in Charlottesville. Here's to hoping we can all score a solid winter storm (or three) worthy of a Jeb walk and a few brews along the way!

I prefer Climax gradients. They're more fun and I live just north of it lol

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

11 hours ago, Terpeast said:

A year ago, I did a statistical experiment to see how much our annual snowfall climo would change in the next couple of decades, and what I found was that while it would go down by 15-20% overall, the biggest storms would become even wetter with bigger snowfall totals provided it is still cold enough. 

Jan 6-8, 1996 was a very cold storm, and if it happened today, our totals would actually be much bigger than it was then. Instead of IAD getting 25”, the same storm might actually produce 33” if it happened in a warmer (and wetter) climate. 

Imagine that. 

 

10 hours ago, bncho said:

Spoof totals to excite the snow weenies!
IAD: 32.8”
DCA: 25.9”
BWI: 29.1”
 

Meh...DCA will still find a way to never record more than 17.8 inches, even while locations right nearby are pushing 3 feet!! 

[Terpeast]

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

 

Meh...DCA will still find a way to never record more than 17.8 inches, even while locations right nearby are pushing 3 feet!! 

There’s a reason I use IAD and it’s not just because I live closest to it 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

10 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The winter of 2015-2016 is a perfect example of this. It was a shutout until that one event saved winter.

Not only a shutout prior to that big storm, but record warmth that December beforehand!  I still recall going out Christmas Eve and it was literally hazy and humid out.  A lot of people like to frown on that winter as a one-and-done failure.  That is sort of true, but I think people overlook that we actually were a little colder than normal that January (when the blizzard occurred) into the first half of February.  We also did get a small snow/ice event around Presidents' Day.  And I think there were a couple of other at least small trackable threats that ended up not happening.

[87storms]

Today’s 12z run is gonna be the most important run since the winter solstice.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

There’s a reason I use IAD and it’s not just because I live closest to it 

Likewise, I live in suburban MD now.  For several years I lived in DC, around the Capitol Hill neighborhood.  But even there, I noticed the amount of snow I got was more than what DCA reported (not hugely different, but noticeable!).

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, 87storms said:

Today’s 12z run is gonna be the most important run since the winter solstice.

Damn.  sun angle is working against us now after the official solstice late last night!

[WxUSAF]

14 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Damn.  sun angle is working against us now after the official solstice late last night!

Got to get some snow before sun angle season starts next Friday 

[Eskimo Joe]

Euro says we all snow shower Christmas eve.

[Eskimo Joe]

19 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Not only a shutout prior to that big storm, but record warmth that December beforehand!  I still recall going out Christmas Eve and it was literally hazy and humid out.  A lot of people like to frown on that winter as a one-and-done failure.  That is sort of true, but I think people overlook that we actually were a little colder than normal that January (when the blizzard occurred) into the first half of February.  We also did get a small snow/ice event around Presidents' Day.  And I think there were a couple of other at least small trackable threats that ended up not happening.

Was living in York-New Salem and commuting to Gaithersburg. We had praying mantis on the Christmas garland it was so warm.

[IronTy]

23 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Today’s 12z run is gonna be the most important run since the winter solstice.

"Of all the 12Z runs I've seen, this one is definitely the most....recent"

[IronTy]

This is no joke, I swear.  Last night I dreamed that somehow the jet stream oriented itself so that it was running directly from Mongolia right over the pole to us.  I was like a Cassandra telling people to be ready for record cold but my neighbors didn't believe me.  Unfortunately I woke up before anything happened but it's gotta be a sign for something.  

[IUsedToHateCold]

16 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Euro says we all snow shower Christmas eve.

Euro has had a patch of snow showers for us on Christmas Eve on and off for a couple of days. I’m just skeptical because the system is pretty far north and as depicted it wouldn’t be anything more than a half hour of snow tv. Easy to miss 

[TSSN+]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

This is no joke, I swear.  Last night I dreamed that somehow the jet stream oriented itself so that it was running directly from Mongolia right over the pole to us.  I was like a Cassandra telling people to be ready for record cold but my neighbors didn't believe me.  Unfortunately I woke up before anything happened but it's gotta be a sign for something.  

It’s a sign of something alright…. Seek help 

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

This is no joke, I swear.  Last night I dreamed that somehow the jet stream oriented itself so that it was running directly from Mongolia right over the pole to us.  I was like a Cassandra telling people to be ready for record cold but my neighbors didn't believe me.  Unfortunately I woke up before anything happened but it's gotta be a sign for something.  

@WEATHER53 approves.

[Weather Will]

Winter solstice, no snow before the 1st, someone feeling lucky should give us new mojo and open the January thread....

[Ralph Wiggum]

Not a peep on the 12z gfs? Sheesh. Miller B bomb just misses right after NY but the followup system around the 6th just misses a full phase beast. Going to be fun tracking soon!

[adelphi_sky]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not a peep on the 12z gfs? Sheesh. Miller B bomb just misses right after NY but the followup system around the 6th just misses a full phase beast. Going to be fun tracking soon!

 

Would be nice to track something while off of work! Let's go!