December Medium/ Long Range

[Chris78]

I'm not on board until Chuck is....

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

I'm not on board until Chuck is....

We might be turning the corner to a little more of a snowy time.  I had a lot of roll forward stuff that was showing a +NAO January, so if the 1st week ends up with a big Greenland block that is a different pattern than my analogs. I want to see if it stays consistent though, because last year models missed a few times at that range.. 

[psuhoffman]

Look I know, but the fact is the best cold enso match to todays eps is 1996 and it’s not close 

 

[Weather Will]

Blizzard of 2025...EPS extended  control Day 7 ending 10th; 

[WxUSAF]

I was going to check some of the CIPS analogs so this is nice to see. Early December analogs often were a bunch of traces…which is what we got.

 

[Jebman]

More good news, MUCH less west coast interaction with the jet, MORE Mid Atlantic troughs from now on into April 2025.

Numerous opportunities to time cold with storms resulting in widespread accumulating snow throughout the Mid Atlantic.

Get those shovels ready!

[Paleocene]

59 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I'm not on board until Chuck is....

That was an eerily positive Chuck post. Spidey senses tingling

[cbmclean]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I was going to check some of the CIPS analogs so this is nice to see. Early December analogs often were a bunch of traces…which is what we got.

 

Gee, top analog 1985-01-21.  Merely the day that RDU set it's all-time record low of an incredible -9 F.  The height of the January 1985 polar outbreak.

[bncho]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Look I know, but the fact is the best cold enso match to todays eps is 1996 and it’s not close 

 

I have said it a lot here…
But I am rooting for a Jan 6-8, 1996 redux.
And it just might happen.

NO FEBRUARY 2024 BUST AHHHHH.

[Eskimo Joe]

40 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We might be turning the corner to a little more of a snowy time.  I had a lot of roll forward stuff that was showing a +NAO January, so if the 1st week ends up with a big Greenland block that is a different pattern than my analogs. I want to see if it stays consistent though, because last year it missed a few times at that range.. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Great pattern continuing on 384hr GFS ensemble

Medium and long range models move a lot as per as what is happening currently, so I want see us make it past the Christmas major +EPO/+NAO pattern for the validity.

[Weather Will]

What we know is that we are going to have the coldest winter solstice this Sunday in a long time....WB 18Z NAM.

[frd]

 

Great post by Tomer on the pattern evolution going forward. 

I like it !   mentions the word snow ....   

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1870246071852572678

[WxUSAF]

8 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

Is the low spread on Monday morning still 0-30 on the models?

Narrowed a bit. GGEM still has low 0s widespread. Euro is mid 10s. GFS has some down bit to upper 10s-mid 20s.

[WxUSAF]

 

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Look I know, but the fact is the best cold enso match to todays eps is 1996 and it’s not close 

 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

“Who are you and what have you done to psuhoffman?”

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

“Who are you and what have you done to psuhoffman?”

lol 

Im still cautious. Long way to go before we’re measuring anything. But most of what I do is just math. Playing probabilities.  And the probabilities say -pdo cold enso years are likely to be garbage. But flukes happen. 1996 happened. 2014 happened. They aren’t the most likely outcome and you’ll lose betting on that outcome most often but they do happen. More likely than those level flukes one off storm flukes happen like Jan 2000 and Feb 2006.  
 

What I’m seeing opens the door to the possibility this is an anomaly year. That’s all. I’ll take my chances considering how things could look right now. Several years recently I was working on my “winters over” draft about now!  

[WVclimo]

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Gee, top analog 1985-01-21.  Merely the day that RDU set it's all-time record low of an incredible -9 F.  The height of the January 1985 polar outbreak.

Several of those analogs had historic cold snaps in the Mid-Atlantic.  January 1970, 1977, 1981 (along with 1985.)

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But flukes happen. 1996 happened. 2014 happened. They aren’t the most likely outcome and you’ll lose betting on that outcome most often but they do happen. More likely than those level flukes one off storm flukes happen like Jan 2000 and Feb 2006.  

95-96 was a +PDO, but SSTs are more a reflection of atmospheric conditions, so changing times aren't gauged well by the PDO. This could be one of those anomalous years. I'm actually surprised that the CPC is so cold in their 3-4 week forecast. They have the cold centered in the Tenn valley, which your composite for most snowy Winters showed. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Look I know, but the fact is the best cold enso match to todays eps is 1996 and it’s not close 

 

Go back and look at my post from this morning for that same period, focusing on the jet stream and h5. One astute poster asked if I was predicting a redux of the 96 storm.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Look I know, but the fact is the best cold enso match to todays eps is 1996 and it’s not close 

 

can’t wait for people to say this is cold and dry. this is perfect for amplification into confluence along with a decaying block and an Arctic air mass feeding in 

IF this is legit, this is the kind of pattern that presents high end potential from DC-BOS. just need to give it another week to see if the block is real… i think the Pacific is going to end up favorable 

[Mikeymac5306]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

I have said it a lot here…
But I am rooting for a Jan 6-8, 1996 redux.
And it just might happen.

NO FEBRUARY 2024 BUST AHHHHH.

Everyone on this board has been rooting for a Jan 6-8 1996 redux since Jan 9th 1996. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

can’t wait for people to say this is cold and dry. this is perfect for amplification into confluence along with a decaying block and an Arctic air mass feeding in 

IF this is legit, this is the kind of pattern that presents high end potential from DC-BOS. just need to give it another week to see if the block is real… i think the Pacific is going to end up favorable 

+PNA and -NAO are dry, but -EPO has a neutral precip correlation plus the most extreme negative temps.. so you could say that the current model look is actually a little better than that time in 95-96, although randomness does spike some storms in the H5 drier patterns. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, Mikeymac5306 said:

Everyone on this board has been rooting for a Jan 6-8 1996 redux since Jan 9th 1996. 

A year ago, I did a statistical experiment to see how much our annual snowfall climo would change in the next couple of decades, and what I found was that while it would go down by 15-20% overall, the biggest storms would become even wetter with bigger snowfall totals provided it is still cold enough. 

Jan 6-8, 1996 was a very cold storm, and if it happened today, our totals would actually be much bigger than it was then. Instead of IAD getting 25”, the same storm might actually produce 33” if it happened in a warmer (and wetter) climate. 

Imagine that. 

[cbmclean]

47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Several years recently I was working on my “winters over” draft about now!  

Be sure to take notes for the inevitable "what went wrong analysis" you have to write around 12/26 when the ensembles suddenly show a ridge from gulf to pole.

[bncho]

LOL
We’re going to get a the blizzard redux, and then twenty years later I’m going to be writing a book called “The Beginning of the End of Winters.”

[bncho]

17 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Imagine that. 

subtle foreshadowing

[wxdude64]

17 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

A year ago, I did a statistical experiment to see how much our annual snowfall climo would change in the next couple of decades, and what I found was that while it would go down by 15-20% overall, the biggest storms would become even wetter with bigger snowfall totals provided it is still cold enough. 

Jan 6-8, 1996 was a very cold storm, and if it happened today, our totals would actually be much bigger than it was then. Instead of IAD getting 25”, the same storm might actually produce 33” if it happened in a warmer (and wetter) climate. 

Imagine that. 

So, you're talking a 30% increase possible? (as he eyes his 32 inch total from Jan 6-8 1996)

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

So, you're talking a 30% increase possible? (as he eyes his 32 inch total from Jan 6-8 1996)

I certainly believe that is possible, even after a warm and snowless stretch of winters here. Less snow overall, but more variance, and when the next big one hits, records are going to get shattered. 

Could be 2 weeks from now. Could be 10 years. Who knows

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I certainly believe that is possible, even after a warm and snowless stretch of winters here. Less snow overall, but more variance, and when the next big one hits, records are going to get shattered. 

Could be 2 weeks from now. Could be 10 years. Who knows

Spoof totals to excite the snow weenies!
IAD: 32.8”
DCA: 25.9”
BWI: 29.1”