CAPE Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 On 12/20/2024 at 7:30 PM, cbmclean said: Not a fan of seeing Canada and Siberia torching at the same time. Expand As long as the Mongolian High is intact all is well with winter in the Mid Atlantic. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 On 12/20/2024 at 7:22 PM, AlexD1990 said: I'm not an expert AT ALL, bust isn't the ridge axis too far west? I thought we wanted it around ID, not off the coast of OR? Expand No that ridge along the Inside Passage up through Yukon helps drag polar air down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 It’s interesting that the sustained warmups are being can kicked this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 On 12/20/2024 at 6:37 PM, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS is amazing. notice the open STJ too, true split flow Expand That's a much better look with the epo bulging AND some Atlantic side help. Been burned so many times LR last decade so nice to see but not dusting off the snowblower..yet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 You love to see it from @griteater 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 On 12/20/2024 at 7:30 PM, cbmclean said: Not a fan of seeing Canada and Siberia torching at the same time. Expand you want them to torch… means it’s a -AO pattern with cold air being displaced 7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 On 12/20/2024 at 7:44 PM, WxUSAF said: You love to see it from @griteater Expand Was just about to post this. I saw someone in here speaking about the fabled long range torch that just hasn't materialized thus far. My Co-Op station (RSTM2) has recorded 3 60+ degree days this December, which is less than previous years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 On 12/20/2024 at 7:51 PM, brooklynwx99 said: you want them to torch… means it’s a -AO pattern with cold air being displaced Expand Yeah I know but there can be too much of a good thing there. Torch them too much and there is nothing there to displace, at least nothing helpful to us 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 On 12/20/2024 at 7:51 PM, brooklynwx99 said: you want them to torch… means it’s a -AO pattern with cold air being displaced Expand A 'torch' in Siberia in Jan is like -20c 3 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 On 12/20/2024 at 8:02 PM, cbmclean said: Yeah I know but there can be too much of a good thing there. Torch them too much and there is nothing there to displace, at least nothing helpful to us Expand it can be +15 over N Canada and it would be more than cold enough for us 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 On 12/20/2024 at 8:02 PM, cbmclean said: Yeah I know but there can be too much of a good thing there. Torch them too much and there is nothing there to displace, at least nothing helpful to us Expand That has to happen in order to get anomalous cold into the lowlands of the midlatitudes, in particular places that are moderated by proximity to oceans. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 On 12/20/2024 at 7:39 PM, Eskimo Joe said: No that ridge along the Inside Passage up through Yukon helps drag polar air down. Expand Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 On 12/20/2024 at 6:37 PM, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS is amazing. notice the open STJ too, true split flowWhat was the word you used last year to describe what the models were showing? Magical or something? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 On 12/20/2024 at 6:46 PM, WxUSAF said: Was just coming to post. EPS agrees. Pattern has lots of potential for first weekend in January. Euro op also was showing potential even earlier. Zero ensemble support for the op storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 On 12/20/2024 at 8:28 PM, Ji said: Zero ensemble support for the op storm lol Expand I think NYE is likely too early by 3-6 days for any real chance. Jan 3-6 is the window to keep an eye on IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 On 12/20/2024 at 8:27 PM, Ji said: What was the word you used last year to describe what the models were showing? Magical or something? Expand fantabulous, actually 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 On 12/20/2024 at 8:32 PM, WxUSAF said: I think NYE is likely too early by 3-6 days for any real chance. Jan 3-6 is the window to keep an eye on IMO. Expand I will be tracking our incoming HECS on my fight home January 4th. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 On 12/20/2024 at 8:32 PM, WxUSAF said: I think NYE is likely too early by 3-6 days for any real chance. Jan 3-6 is the window to keep an eye on IMO. Expand Rooting for a Jan 6-8, 1996 redux. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 20, 2024 Author Share Posted December 20, 2024 On 12/20/2024 at 8:32 PM, WxUSAF said: I think NYE is likely too early by 3-6 days for any real chance. Jan 3-6 is the window to keep an eye on IMO. Expand Yeah I think the NYE storm (if there is one) will likely be a cutter that brings about the cold air closer in. The second or third wave after that are the ones we'd have a chance with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 On 12/20/2024 at 8:27 PM, Ji said: What was the word you used last year to describe what the models were showing? Magical or something? Expand Please don't poke the bear. He got enough heat from us last year, he's aware. Full redemption this year, positive vibes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Below normal but dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 On 12/20/2024 at 9:48 PM, dallen7908 said: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Below normal but dry? Expand I’ll take my chances with that, gotta have cold to have snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 20, 2024 Author Share Posted December 20, 2024 On 12/20/2024 at 10:00 PM, Solution Man said: I’ll take my chances with that, gotta have cold to have snow Expand Same. That wintry week in January - we only got a total of 0.4-0.6 qpf but we had about 7-11" of snow depending on where you were in the region. That translates to only 1.6-2.4" for the month, which is drier than normal. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 On 12/20/2024 at 9:48 PM, dallen7908 said: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Below normal but dry? Expand Well, with the cup 1/2 full, ratios would be much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 On 12/20/2024 at 10:14 PM, Terpeast said: Same. That wintry week in January - we only got a total of 0.4-0.6 qpf but we had about 7-11" of snow depending on where you were in the region. That translates to only 1.6-2.4" for the month, which is drier than normal. Expand We're generally much better at precip than cold. DCA averages over 8 inches of precip in the winter...if we had the temps on our side, we might actually get bored of snow lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 I think 18z GFS would be a hit for the time period many have mentioned above in the last few pages. Yes, all caveats apply, but I don't hate the look at 384 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 On 12/20/2024 at 11:26 PM, mitchnick said: Yep. That was around the time as one of those storms on last night's Cfs I posted earlier today. That 700mb RH map is wonderfully savory. Expand https://giphy.com/gifs/reaction-mortal-kombat-mk-j3sauffiYNcio8tY40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 GFS and GFS ensembles got better on 1st week of January pattern today, increasing the -EPO signal This is LR GFS, but it's what models are showing right now, with big ridges pinching north. I would definitely take my chances with this in early Jan. Let's see if it stays consistent or changes in the next few days. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 20, 2024 Share Posted December 20, 2024 I'm not on board until Chuck is.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 21, 2024 Share Posted December 21, 2024 On 12/20/2024 at 11:44 PM, Chris78 said: I'm not on board until Chuck is.... Expand We might be turning the corner to a little more of a snowy time. I had a lot of roll forward stuff that was showing a +NAO January, so if the 1st week ends up with a big Greenland block that is a different pattern than my analogs. I want to see if it stays consistent though, because last year models missed a few times at that range.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now