December Medium/ Long Range

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS, at least the SER is squashed for awhile if this verifies.....and cold air is building back in with the can being kicked....

Not a fan of seeing Canada and Siberia torching at the same time.  

[CAPE]

End of the EPS run has a southern stream shortwave moving east with colder air in place.

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Not a fan of seeing Canada and Siberia torching at the same time.  

As long as the Mongolian High is intact all is well with winter in the Mid Atlantic.

[Eskimo Joe]

15 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

I'm not an expert AT ALL, bust isn't the ridge axis too far west? I thought we wanted it around ID, not off the coast of OR?

No that ridge along the Inside Passage up through Yukon helps drag polar air down.

[JenkinsJinkies]

It’s interesting that the sustained warmups are being can kicked this year.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS is amazing. notice the open STJ too, true split flow

That's a much better look with the epo bulging AND some Atlantic side help. Been burned so many times LR last decade so nice to see but not dusting off the snowblower..yet

[WxUSAF]

You love to see it 

from @griteater

 

[brooklynwx99]

21 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Not a fan of seeing Canada and Siberia torching at the same time.  

you want them to torch… means it’s a -AO pattern with cold air being displaced

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

You love to see it 

from @griteater

Was just about to post this. I saw someone in here speaking about the fabled long range torch that just hasn't materialized thus far. My Co-Op station (RSTM2) has recorded 3 60+ degree days this December, which is less than previous years.

[cbmclean]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you want them to torch… means it’s a -AO pattern with cold air being displaced

Yeah I know but there can be too much of a good thing there.  Torch them too much and there is nothing there to displace, at least nothing helpful to us 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you want them to torch… means it’s a -AO pattern with cold air being displaced

A 'torch' in Siberia in Jan is like -20c

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Yeah I know but there can be too much of a good thing there.  Torch them too much and there is nothing there to displace, at least nothing helpful to us 

it can be +15 over N Canada and it would be more than cold enough for us 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Yeah I know but there can be too much of a good thing there.  Torch them too much and there is nothing there to displace, at least nothing helpful to us 

That has to happen in order to get anomalous cold into the lowlands of the midlatitudes, in particular places that are moderated by proximity to oceans.

[AlexD1990]

43 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

No that ridge along the Inside Passage up through Yukon helps drag polar air down.

Thank you!

[Ji]

GEFS is amazing. notice the open STJ too, true split flow

What was the word you used last year to describe what the models were showing? Magical or something?

[Ji]

Was just coming to post. EPS agrees. Pattern has lots of potential for first weekend in January. Euro op also was showing potential even earlier. 

Zero ensemble support for the op storm lol

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Zero ensemble support for the op storm lol

I think NYE is likely too early by 3-6 days for any real chance. Jan 3-6 is the window to keep an eye on IMO. 

[brooklynwx99]

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

What was the word you used last year to describe what the models were showing? Magical or something?

fantabulous, actually

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think NYE is likely too early by 3-6 days for any real chance. Jan 3-6 is the window to keep an eye on IMO. 

I will be tracking our incoming HECS on my fight home January 4th. 

[bncho]

49 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think NYE is likely too early by 3-6 days for any real chance. Jan 3-6 is the window to keep an eye on IMO. 

Rooting for a Jan 6-8, 1996 redux.

[Terpeast]

51 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think NYE is likely too early by 3-6 days for any real chance. Jan 3-6 is the window to keep an eye on IMO. 

Yeah I think the NYE storm (if there is one) will likely be a cutter that brings about the cold air closer in. The second or third wave after that are the ones we'd have a chance with

[Ralph Wiggum]

58 minutes ago, Ji said:

What was the word you used last year to describe what the models were showing? Magical or something?

Please don't poke the bear. He got enough heat from us last year, he's aware. Full redemption this year, positive vibes.

[dallen7908]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Below normal but dry? 

[Solution Man]

11 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Below normal but dry? 

I’ll take my chances with that, gotta have cold to have snow

[Terpeast]

12 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

I’ll take my chances with that, gotta have cold to have snow

Same. That wintry week in January - we only got a total of 0.4-0.6 qpf but we had about 7-11" of snow depending on where you were in the region. That translates to only 1.6-2.4" for the month, which is drier than normal.

[frd]

6 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Below normal but dry? 

 

Well,  with the cup 1/2 full,  ratios would be much higher. 

 

 

 

[87storms]

49 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Same. That wintry week in January - we only got a total of 0.4-0.6 qpf but we had about 7-11" of snow depending on where you were in the region. That translates to only 1.6-2.4" for the month, which is drier than normal.

We're generally much better at precip than cold.  DCA averages over 8 inches of precip in the winter...if we had the temps on our side, we might actually get bored of snow lol.

[yoda]

I think 18z GFS would be a hit for the time period many have mentioned above in the last few pages.  Yes, all caveats apply, but I don't hate the look at 384

[yoda]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Yep. That was around the time as one of those storms on last night's Cfs I posted earlier today. That 700mb RH map is wonderfully savory.

https://giphy.com/gifs/reaction-mortal-kombat-mk-j3sauffiYNcio8tY40

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

GFS and GFS ensembles got better on 1st week of January pattern today, increasing the -EPO signal

This is LR GFS, but it's what models are showing right now, with big ridges pinching north. I would definitely take my chances with this in early Jan. Let's see if it stays consistent or changes in the next few days.