Scarlet Pimpernel Posted yesterday at 02:38 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:38 PM 9 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I gotta say that this December is more like the typical December I grew up with as a kid. Seasonably cold, gray, mostly wet, but sometimes flakes in the air. Some years we're good for a couple of inches, but nothing major. So this month has been more in line with that than the torchy ones we've been getting lately. But still not extraordinarily cold/BN. Just about near normal (but BN by today's climate standards). I was just thinking this the other day, at least for this area. Yeah, haven't had any snow this month other than maybe a couple of stray flakes. But to my knowledge, it's been one of the colder Decembers I can remember in awhile. Not extreme, but some solidly cold days and nights. Not those nearly 65 degree humid evenings! In fact, I saw that even DCA is about a degree or so below normal on the month so far. So if we avoid any torch the rest of the month, I'd have to say it's more in line with a "typical" December than we've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted yesterday at 03:22 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:22 PM 58 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I gotta say that this December is more like the typical December I grew up with as a kid. Seasonably cold, gray, mostly wet, but sometimes flakes in the air. Some years we're good for a couple of inches, but nothing major. So this month has been more in line with that than the torchy ones we've been getting lately. But still not extraordinarily cold/BN. Just about near normal (but BN by today's climate standards). It’s been a nice start to winter here. MRB is -2.6° for the month with only a few mild days so far. Should be at about -3.5° heading into Christmas Eve. Precip has been above normal and it’s already snowed a couple of inches. Happy to see the moisture showing up after such a dry year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted yesterday at 03:38 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:38 PM 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: I gotta say that this December is more like the typical December I grew up with as a kid. Seasonably cold, gray, mostly wet, but sometimes flakes in the air. Some years we're good for a couple of inches, but nothing major. So this month has been more in line with that than the torchy ones we've been getting lately. But still not extraordinarily cold/BN. Just about near normal (but BN by today's climate standards). Although I only have several 'T's' for snow this month, running about a -2 for temps, feels like Decembers of past. LOVE to have a repeat of this, I went digging when the 2009 thread came back up- my December 2009 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted yesterday at 03:44 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:44 PM 1 hour ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: There's a @ravensrule comment in there somewhere, I'm sure! I'm a master baster. He should bring his steak over for me to take care of. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted yesterday at 04:36 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:36 PM Is the low spread on Monday morning still 0-30 on the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted yesterday at 04:40 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:40 PM GFS continues to show a scattershot of chances around Christmas... nothing crazy, either light ice or light/mod snow. Weird snow map that will not come to pass for Dec. 26 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted yesterday at 04:42 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:42 PM 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS continues to show a scattershot of chances around Christmas... nothing crazy, either light ice or light/mod snow. Weird snow map that will not come to pass for Dec. 26 That has a -3% chance of happening. 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted yesterday at 04:49 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:49 PM 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That has a -3% chance of happening. yeah, that won't. But maybe we could Christmas miracle ourselves into something next week -- cold highs to the north sticking around. It won't be pretty, but maybe it isn't a pure shutout week, at least for tracking. need one of these events to happen at night! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: yeah, that won't. But maybe we could Christmas miracle ourselves into something next week -- cold highs to the north sticking around. It won't be pretty, but maybe it isn't a pure shutout week, at least for tracking. need one of these events to happen at night! This would be my 4th snow event this winter. We might be teeing up for a January MECS at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 2nd or 3rd here--none of them accumulating. We should create a January thread to boost hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago 43 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That has a -3% chance of happening. We need a probability snow map from Will asap. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 3 hours ago, Ji said: he isnt a met that you should trust/follow Oh I know.. that's why I said...."FWIW".. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Oh I know.. that's why I said...."FWIW".. lol Why is he not trustworthy? Does he steal snow from people's yards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago One of the better OP euro runs for the LR…Has a snow threat NYE and no ridge bridge . 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 6 minutes ago, Heisy said: One of the better OP euro runs for the LR… Has a snow threat NYE and no ridge bridge . It will be AN after Xmas, but doesn’t seem like a real multi day torch for our area. If we have a really warm day it’s probably with a cutter and fairly short lived. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It will be AN after Xmas, but doesn’t seem like a real multi day torch for our area. If we have a really warm day it’s probably with a cutter and fairly short lived. Is it just me or has an early early trend for this upcoming winter has been more short term warm-ups and back to cold? (It has been a breath of fresh cold air after seeing the opposite so many years!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Is it just me or has an early early trend for this upcoming winter has been more short term warm-ups and back to cold? (It has been a breath of fresh cold air after seeing the opposite so many years!). Yeah duration of warm ups have been modest. Although amplitude of warmups still outdoes the cold. 3 airports all just barely BN for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago GEFS is amazing. notice the open STJ too, true split flow 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS is amazing. notice the open STJ too, true split flow Was just coming to post. EPS agrees. Pattern has lots of potential for first weekend in January. Euro op also was showing potential even earlier. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Was just coming to post. EPS agrees. Pattern has lots of potential for first weekend in January. Euro op also was showing potential even earlier. big 50/50 showing up trapped by the -NAO. could have something larger showing up around the 6-10th, but that's a ways out there. lots of the pieces seem to be in place. very high confidence in a -EPO, and confidence in a -NAO is increasing by the day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago Just now, brooklynwx99 said: big 50/50 showing up trapped by the -NAO. could have something larger showing up around the 6-10th, but that's a ways out there. lots of the pieces seem to be in place. very high confidence in a -EPO, and confidence in a -NAO is increasing by the day Euro op kinda had my scenario from yesterday with a cutter (although it wasn’t a full on cutter) turn into a confluence source and put a follow on storm on a good track. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro op kinda had my scenario from yesterday with a cutter (although it wasn’t a full on cutter) turn into a confluence source and put a follow on storm on a good track. the GEPS sees the vision at 15 days out lmao perfect synoptics 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago Actually like GEFS and EPS a bit more, but i wouldn’t kick the GEPS out of bed. For D15, they all agree very well with the major features. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Actually like GEFS and EPS a bit more, but i wouldn’t kick the GEPS out of bed. For D15, they all agree very well with the major features. I hope no February 2024 flop 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the GEPS sees the vision at 15 days out lmao perfect synoptics That's a KU look. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's a KU look. I'm not an expert AT ALL, bust isn't the ridge axis too far west? I thought we wanted it around ID, not off the coast of OR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 5 minutes ago, Solution Man said: I hope no February 2024 flop That possibility is always on the table. Have to always keep that in mind. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago 3 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: I'm not an expert AT ALL, bust isn't the ridge axis too far west? I thought we wanted it around ID, not off the coast of OR? Well, in that panel it gives room for the trough axis to be west of us, which gives waves more room. Obviously there can be too much room at times. Everything is a balance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago WB 12Z EPS, at least the SER is squashed for awhile if this verifies.....and cold air is building back in with the can not being kicked.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 21 hours ago Share Posted 21 hours ago WB 12Z Day 13.5 compered to Day 14.5 yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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