December Medium/ Long Range

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This doesn't look so bad on the 384hr GFS ensemble mean

The thing is, I'm suspicious of the big +EPO ridge turning into a -NAO in the medium range (usually they don't run into each other like that). And for the last few days, the long range GEFS has tried to build a -EPO at the 384hr range, to lose it lately. That Pacific pattern has been stuck there for the last 3 days. Let's see what happens when we get closer. Verbatim, it's a good look, but I don't really like the evolution to getting there.  It might end up verifying as a slight -pna or something warmer. 

That particular panel, the way that it is, looks good though.  Let's see if the MJO remains strong going into the later phases.. Usually after such a strong +EPO, at H5 the pattern has to reload though. The ridging usually doesn't just go poleward all around and give us snow. 

[Kevin Reilly]

35 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

This doesn't look so bad on the 384hr GFS ensemble mean

The thing is, I'm suspicious of the big +EPO ridge turning into a -NAO in the medium range (usually they don't run into each other like that). And for the last few days, the long range GEFS has tried to build a -EPO at the 384hr range, to lose it lately. That Pacific pattern has been stuck there for the last 3 days. Let's see what happens when we get closer. Verbatim, it's a good look, but I don't really like the evolution to getting there.  It might end up verifying as a slight -pna or something warmer. 

That particular panel, the way that it is, looks good though. Let's see if the MJO remains strong going into the later phases.. Usually after such a strong +EPO, at H5 the pattern has to reload though. 

Ehh there's always a first let's try it out could be interesting to see something new with a +EPO turning into a

-NAO.... What can go wrong?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Ehh there's always a first let's try it out could be interesting to see something new with a +EPO turning into a

-NAO.... What can go wrong?

Maybe the models are weighing too heavily the MJO? Should be interesting to see if it holds this look the next few days..  I also think at that time we are hitting Day 40 on the +PNA phase, which is usually a complete cycle. 

[Ji]

Thousands of people on a weenie Facebook site thought we were getting 25 inches of snow tonight

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Ji said:

Thousands of people on a weenie Facebook site thought we were getting 25 inches of snow tonight

Did you mislead your followers Jay?

[Deck Pic]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Thousands of people on a weenie Facebook site thought we were getting 25 inches of snow tonight

was it wx risk

[NorthArlington101]

Unrelated, but I’m not giving up on a Christmas Eve/Day miracle. Most of the OPs have something wintry in the area. I guess I’d take a glaze of ice… something to spice it up. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Unrelated, but I’m not giving up on a Christmas Eve/Day miracle. Most of the OPs have something wintry in the area. I guess I’d take a glaze of ice… something to spice it up. 

EPO is raging positive.. it usually busts warm. 

[Deck Pic]

November/December Snow events of 1"+ IMBY since December 2009.  Sucks but I don't worry about December here in UHI central.  Even Mt PSU probably only averages 5-6" in December.  

12/16/10: 1.5"

12/8/13: 1"

12/9/17: 2.25"

11/15/18: 2"

12/16/20: 1"

 

 

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

November/December Snow events of 1"+ IMBY since December 2009.  Sucks but I don't worry about December here in UHI central.  Even Mt PSU probably only averages 5-6" in December.  

12/16/10: 1.5"

12/8/13: 1"

12/9/17: 2.25"

11/15/18: 2"

12/16/20: 1"

 

 

You need to move, that’s pitiful. 

[Deck Pic]

Just now, ravensrule said:

You need to move, that’s pitiful. 

It's pitiful for most of us - NW of a Manchester-Frederick-Winchester line there have been some nice events.   I don't think you have had many 4"+ events in December since 2009.  Maybe 3 or 4.  March is the new december.  

 

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

It's pitiful for most of us - NW of a Manchester-Frederick-Winchester line there have been some nice events.   I don't think you have had many 4"+ events in December since 2009.  Maybe 3 or 4.  March is the new december.  

 

I don’t keep track like you do but I’m sure you’re correct. It has gotten so bad here i just go to ski resorts 3-4 times a winter to get my snow fix. 

[Ji]

Did you mislead your followers Jay?

Not at all. I posted the forecast from Dec 2009

[wasnow215]

49 minutes ago, Ji said:

Thousands of people on a weenie Facebook site thought we were getting 25 inches of snow tonight

Based on that one GFS run last Thursday. Unreal 

[Bob Chill]

12 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, the -EPO developing during the first week of Jan is a near certainty, we are going to have that feature barring a complete mishandling of the Pacific. the potential -NAO just ups the ante, and there is increasing confidence that one is going to form. it's showing up on all ensembles around day 10

I want to wait another 5-7 days to see if it sticks around, but it's promising. I'm not going to let last year's debacle influence my thinking all that much

I like everything I see right now but no cold and no snow (for nearly 3 years lol) makes bobchill go something something.... 

Imo- as depicted, it's not a dry pattern and sets up the gulf/TN Valley connection. Broad bowl shape trough with blocking. Has the 8:30am-2:30pm trajectory look to me. I'm not sure further north than say Philly should like this setup except for cold. Not a big storm look up north and 3-6" only makes SNE'ers angry, apparently lolol. 

It's also not a nina pattern. There has been minimal classic Nina stuff at all so far imo other than NS activity. NH flow hasn't followed the rules and continues to look like a rebel. Current ens guidance looks like a nino lol

[WxUSAF]

Puff puff pass

 

[CAPE]

Towards the end of the EPS run a bit of a split flow develops as the NPJ retracts and the western US ridge amplifies- the STJ also links up so there might be a possibility of some energy taking the southern route going forward with colder air in place. Nice jet streak in a decent spot.

 

Looking at h5 there is an indication of pieces of energy in the southern stream flow. NS will be busy but with the -EPO/TPV combo in a Nina that's gonna be a thing.

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Towards the end of the EPS run a bit of a split flow develops as the NPJ retracts and the western US ridge amplifies- the STJ also links up so there might be a possibility of some energy taking the southern route going forward with colder air in place. Nice jet streak in a decent spot.

 

 

Looking at h5 there is some indication of pieces of energy in the southern stream flow. NS will be busy but with the -EPO/TPV combo in a Nina that's gonna be a thing.

So you’re calling for a Jan 96 redux? 

[CAPE]

Just now, nj2va said:

So you’re calling for a Jan 96 redux? 

Sure 

[brooklynwx99]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Towards the end of the EPS run a bit of a split flow develops as the NPJ retracts and the western US ridge amplifies- the STJ also links up so there might be a possibility of some energy taking the southern route going forward with colder air in place. Nice jet streak in a decent spot.

 

Looking at h5 there is an indication of pieces of energy in the southern stream flow. NS will be busy but with the -EPO/TPV combo in a Nina that's gonna be a thing.

GEFS cooking with oil now too

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS cooking with oil now too

Now if we can butter baste our steak...

[IronTy]

11 hours ago, Chris78 said:

How many more years do you  think were looking at a - pdo?

How many years are we into this - cycle?

7 years?

If you're a WB subscriber JD did a number of good posts on the PDO this year and you can probably go back and find them.  Going off memory I think the general theme was another 4-7yrs before it could be expected to flip.  

[winter_warlock]

Fwiw......

 

 

[cbmclean]

55 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Fwiw......

 

 

I feel like this board is 2 or 3 years ahead of this guy.  Obsessing over the MHO and the Polar Vortex is soooo 2021.  We've moved on to the PDI and the TNH and jet extensions

[Ji]

58 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Fwiw......

 

 

he isnt a met that you should trust/follow

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

he isnt a met that you should trust/follow

Why not?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

Now if we can butter baste our steak...

There's a @ravensrule comment in there somewhere, I'm sure!

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Towards the end of the EPS run a bit of a split flow develops as the NPJ retracts and the western US ridge amplifies- the STJ also links up so there might be a possibility of some energy taking the southern route going forward with colder air in place. Nice jet streak in a decent spot.

 

Looking at h5 there is an indication of pieces of energy in the southern stream flow. NS will be busy but with the -EPO/TPV combo in a Nina that's gonna be a thing.

That's certainly a good take and look. I would rather have this than any classic weak Nina pattern. A few ways we could muck this up but one recent way we've seen that runs the risk with the jet retraction and EPO ridging and split flow out west is the shred factory when the NS has its way with any STJ impulse. To counter this we are going to need some blocking or something to slow things down on the Atlantic side and allow for sharper trof/digging with our NS. I think we do achieve that but nothing anchored in for weeks. My wag has always been a one-off larger January storm. This is against most of thinking from our regular posters here...but Im still holding to this. Whether or not we pull a 2016 one and done not sure. Hopefully we sustain for a bit after.  Baby steps tho...these maps are a nice signal.

[Terpeast]

I gotta say that this December is more like the typical December I grew up with as a kid. Seasonably cold, gray, mostly wet, but sometimes flakes in the air. Some years we're good for a couple of inches, but nothing major. So this month has been more in line with that than the torchy ones we've been getting lately. But still not extraordinarily cold/BN. Just about near normal (but BN by today's climate standards).

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I like everything I see right now but no cold and no snow (for nearly 3 years lol) makes bobchill go something something.... 

Imo- as depicted, it's not a dry pattern and sets up the gulf/TN Valley connection. Broad bowl shape trough with blocking. Has the 8:30am-2:30pm trajectory look to me. I'm not sure further north than say Philly should like this setup except for cold. Not a big storm look up north and 3-6" only makes SNE'ers angry, apparently lolol. 

It's also not a nina pattern. There has been minimal classic Nina stuff at all so far imo other than NS activity. NH flow hasn't followed the rules and continues to look like a rebel. Current ens guidance looks like a nino lol

Uh, oh...are cute puppies and fuzzy bunnies at risk of being kicked??

The advertised pattern going into the first part of January does look good, though I understand the caution (especially after what happened last winter, weeks of "great looks" that disappeared as it got within 10 days).  I'd take a solid, moderate warning-level event any day, that sticks around for a bit afterward!  Funny that SNE'ers would be angry at "only" a 3-6" storm!  In these parts, there'd be partying in the streets if an area-wide event like that occurred!