December Medium/ Long Range

[WxUSAF]

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Gfs kinda has this at the end, but I’d expect one or even a couple really wound up cutters around NYD that helps reset the pattern toward a more favorable configuration. If we’re lucky, a proclivity for big precip producers will continue after cold air returns.

 

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

even a 50/50 signal as the block decays

An evolution that seems plausible based on long range guidance would be:

1. 1-2 strong cutters wave break during the Dec 29-Jan 2 period. This builds the NAO ridging.

2. They being in a cool, but not cold airmass for Jan 3-5.
 

3. Their remnants park in the 50/50 zone and provide confluence.

4. Another s/w approaches with a good track and acceptable airmass.

5. Profit

[psuhoffman]

37 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Lets hope the wheels don't come off this one like last Feb.

 

33 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

considering the blocking doesn’t rely on a cutter and the Pacific seems a lot more favorable, this seems a bit more solid

i’d like to give this another week though 

In both 2019 and 2024 the epic blocking looks would start to degrade before getting inside day 10. Usually they were handing out around day 15-20 and occasionally would get inside day 15 but never inside day 10. 
 

If this look can survive a few more days without getting can kicked my interest will increase exponentially 

[bncho]

39 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

An evolution that seems plausible based on long range guidance would be:

1. 1-2 strong cutters wave break during the Dec 29-Jan 2 period. This builds the NAO ridging.

2. They being in a cool, but not cold airmass for Jan 3-5.
 

3. Their remnants park in the 50/50 zone and provide confluence.

4. Another s/w approaches with a good track and acceptable airmass.

5. Profit

That sounds great!
But ever heard of taxes and the IRS?

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol this is ridiculous too. 50/50 signal at 2-3 weeks out is kinda wild. this is the kind of stuff we were looking for last year

But we did see this last year, constantly depicted by guidance in the LR, and it never really materialized. Other variables have influence ofc. Last winter (being a Nino)we didn't have the -EPO. I know some others don't agree, but in a current day Nina that is a key feature imo to bring cold/ flatten the SER tendency. We will need at least some help in the NA to slow/suppress the flow to increase our chances of a wave tracking further south, or a hell of a lot of luck. Hopefully we get a modest -NAO period in conjunction with an EPO ridge- which is what we are seeing at the end of the ens runs/ continuing with the extended guidance. Once the cold is in place, it comes down to wave timing, and maybe we get a little southern stream action as well. Drooling over depicted epic blocking possibilities on LR guidance is a fools errand, as usual, imo. Well timed transient -NAO episodes will have to do the trick, and often do in a Nina when we get moderate snow events.

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

But we did see this last year, constantly depicted by guidance in the LR, and it never really materialized. Other variables have influence ofc. Last winter (being a Nino)we didn't have the -EPO. I know some others don't agree, but in a current day Nina that is a key feature imo to bring cold/ flatten the SER tendency. We will need at least some help in the NA to slow/suppress the flow to increase our chances of a wave tracking further south, or a hell of a lot of luck. Hopefully we get a modest -NAO period in conjunction with an EPO ridge- which is what we are seeing at the end of the ens runs/ continuing with the extended guidance. Once the cold is in place, it comes down to wave timing, and maybe we get a little southern stream action as well. Drooling over depicted epic blocking possibilities on LR guidance is a fools errand, as usual, imo. Well timed transient -NAO episodes will have to do the trick, and often do in a Nina when we get moderate snow events.

i mean, the -EPO developing during the first week of Jan is a near certainty, we are going to have that feature barring a complete mishandling of the Pacific. the potential -NAO just ups the ante, and there is increasing confidence that one is going to form. it's showing up on all ensembles around day 10

I want to wait another 5-7 days to see if it sticks around, but it's promising. I'm not going to let last year's debacle influence my thinking all that much

[brooklynwx99]

also, that look is 2-3 weeks out, not 5-6 weeks out like last year. it's continuing the progression on the ensembles, so it's not like it's showing that for no reason

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also, that look is 2-3 weeks out, not 5-6 weeks out like last year. it's continuing the progression on the ensembles, so it's not like it's showing that for no reason

My recollection is we were teased with classic Nino looks and NA blocking on the extended products for months, then ultimately seeing it advertised within a couple weeks on ens guidance when it finally went poof. Regardless, my expectation for the evolving longwave pattern is a significant -EPO developing and persisting for the first 10 days or so of Jan, with the Pacific puke induced Canadian heat ridge evolving into a modest -NAO. Beyond that, we shall see.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

My recollection is we were teased with classic Nino looks and NA blocking on the extended products for months, then ultimately seeing it advertised within a couple weeks on ens guidance when it finally went poof. Regardless, my expectation for the evolving longwave pattern is a significant -EPO developing and persisting for the first 10 days or so of Jan, with the Pacific puke induced Canadian heat ridge evolving into a modest -NAO. Beyond that, we shall see.

I think the overall pattern here is a lot safer since the Pacific looks locked into moving favorably... last year was pretty much fully dependent on the Atlantic, and the Atlantic itself was contingent on a cutter leading to massive wave breaking. very precarious

[yoda]

Of course all caveats apply, but I liked the look at the end of the 18z GFS 

[rjvanals]

18z euro would give most of us a white Christmas 

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

18z euro would give most of us a white Christmas 

Some flakes in the air at least, maybe a coating in places. Who would complain about that?

[Chris78]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Some flakes in the air at least, maybe a coating in places. Who would complain about that?

I can think of 1. 

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, yoda said:

Of course all caveats apply, but I liked the look at the end of the 18z GFS 

A legitimate NA (omega) block, amped EPO ridge, and a ridge bridge. Hell yeah. Odds of it verifying...

[frd]

28 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A legitimate NA (omega) block, amped EPO ridge, and a ridge bridge. Hell yeah. Odds of it verifying...

 

All we can ask is being  in the game.    

 

 

[Terpeast]

31 minutes ago, CAPE said:

A legitimate NA (omega) block, amped EPO ridge, and a ridge bridge. Hell yeah. Odds of it verifying...

Op takes low from S VA to Michigan… right. But a strong cutter like that will bring the cold air in real fast. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

But we did see this last year, constantly depicted by guidance in the LR, and it never really materialized. Other variables have influence ofc. Last winter (being a Nino)we didn't have the -EPO. I know some others don't agree, but in a current day Nina that is a key feature imo to bring cold/ flatten the SER tendency. We will need at least some help in the NA to slow/suppress the flow to increase our chances of a wave tracking further south, or a hell of a lot of luck. Hopefully we get a modest -NAO period in conjunction with an EPO ridge- which is what we are seeing at the end of the ens runs/ continuing with the extended guidance. Once the cold is in place, it comes down to wave timing, and maybe we get a little southern stream action as well. Drooling over depicted epic blocking possibilities on LR guidance is a fools errand, as usual, imo. Well timed transient -NAO episodes will have to do the trick, and often do in a Nina when we get moderate snow events.

I share the skepticism but ironically the pacific was in a more Nina base state last year than this one so far.  I don’t know what it means. I think enso is decreasing in impact, especially when it’s weak or in contradiction with the pacific background state. But let me be clear, when I say I’m interested in that look, it’s with the notion maybe we get a window where we could get a snowstorm. A. Singular. One. I’m not suggesting 2010 or 1996 are walking through that door. I’m just hoping for a 2006 or 2000 here. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Op takes low from S VA to Michigan… right. But a strong cutter like that will bring the cold air in real fast. 

Sorry it had to do that, I’m not back yet. 

[WxUSAF]

 

[MN Transplant]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

AMS week in New Orleans, so that tracks.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, the -EPO developing during the first week of Jan is a near certainty, we are going to have that feature barring a complete mishandling of the Pacific. the potential -NAO just ups the ante, and there is increasing confidence that one is going to form. it's showing up on all ensembles around day 10

I want to wait another 5-7 days to see if it sticks around, but it's promising. I'm not going to let last year's debacle influence my thinking all that much

I agree to an extent but I do think there is an applicable lesson to be taken from what happened regarding the long range teases in both 2019 and 2024. In both cases the dominant long wave influence was a strongly -pdo pacific base state. In both cases the extended guidance wanted to quickly morph the pattern into a canonical look for the SSTs.  Additionally NWP did a similar thing day 15+ in 2021 when a kind of hybrid pattern dominated yet at range the extended often wanted to resume a more canonical Nina look. I think guidance is over weighting enso SSTs at range. I don’t know the physics behind it but that seems too much a coincidence. 
 

But that isn’t necessarily what’s going on here. Actually guidance is bucking a standard weak cold enso look. Now that doesn’t mean it’s right. Maybe it’s wrong for a different reason now but I don’t think it’s doing the same thing as last year fwiw. 

[Chris78]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree to an extent but I do think there is an applicable lesson to be taken from what happened regarding the long range teases in both 2019 and 2024. In both cases the dominant long wave influence was a strongly -pdo pacific base state. In both cases the extended guidance wanted to quickly morph the pattern into a canonical look for the SSTs.  Additionally NWP did a similar thing day 15+ in 2021 when a kind of hybrid pattern dominated yet at range the extended often wanted to resume a more canonical Nina look. I think guidance is over weighting enso SSTs at range. I don’t know the physics behind it but that seems too much a coincidence. 
 

But that isn’t necessarily what’s going on here. Actually guidance is bucking a standard weak cold enso look. Now that doesn’t mean it’s right. Maybe it’s wrong for a different reason now but I don’t think it’s doing the same thing as last year fwiw. 

How many more years do you  think were looking at a - pdo?

How many years are we into this - cycle?

7 years?

[WEATHER53]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Talking about Jan 12-17 Mr Tomer is bullshit 

We have wised   up to the always 15-20 days away crap that murdered last winter

Also I don’t see more than 1-2 days of warmth coming up oscillating with some very good cold   .No 5-10 days of awful warmth 

[aldie 22]

17 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

AMS week in New Orleans, so that tracks.

Im in Maine Jan 14-15 

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

How many more years do you  think were looking at a - pdo?

How many years are we into this - cycle?

7 years?

Im less sure of the larger PDO cycle, but we don’t need a wholesale PDO flip we just need the current near record negative one to end. There are cycles within cycles of the PDO.  Within the decades long larger cycles there are shorter spikes. We don’t need a crazy positive PDO. 2010 was neutral. 2014 was slightly negative.  A lot of the snowy winters in the 60s were neutral or slightly negative. But we need the -2 to -3 dip within the longer -pdo to end. 
 

There is some regularity to these cycles too. The last 3 severe -pdo periods lasted 4-9 years. We’re now 5 years in so it could start to flip anytime now. But it might take a few more years. 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Talking about Jan 12-17 Mr Tomer is bullshit 

We have wised   up to the always 15-20 days away crap that murdered last winter

Also I don’t see more than 1-2 days of warmth coming up oscillating with some very good cold   .No 5-10 days of awful warmth 

Merry Christmas. 

[SnowLover22]

On 12/12/2024 at 8:12 PM, SnowLover22 said:

PDO trending upwards the first half of December. @psuhoffman what is your target value out of curosity.

 

If I am understanding the PDO correctly, the general "trough pattern" over the North Western Pacific Ocean that has been ongoing and forecast on the models should act to continue to help cause the PDO Index to rise. 

 

Lets get this at -1.00 by January 1st

 

[Weather Will]

WB  latest GEFS extended is cooling North America faster the first week of January this run.....

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

My recollection is we were teased with classic Nino looks and NA blocking on the extended products for months, then ultimately seeing it advertised within a couple weeks on ens guidance when it finally went poof. Regardless, my expectation for the evolving longwave pattern is a significant -EPO developing and persisting for the first 10 days or so of Jan, with the Pacific puke induced Canadian heat ridge evolving into a modest -NAO. Beyond that, we shall see.

2019 was always an epic-looking Week 3 of the weeklies.  Sometimes the tail end of the ENS would start to look good but it would then disappear.  Rinse and repeat all winter.

Last year it was well it was progressing nicely from d16 up to d10.  I seem to remember it breaking the d10 barrier at one point, and then completely collapsing. 

 

 

[cbmclean]

Also in 2021 the ensembles kept showing us getting a portion of the Midwest cold.  It didn't happen.  And yes I am still bitter.

[87storms]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

AMS week in New Orleans, so that tracks.

I'm going via my work (my company is actually one of the sponsors) and my first and only concern was the timing of it.  We're still decent at January snow here.