December Medium/ Long Range

[wxdude64]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m sure he could throw that in for free, what with the holidays and all. 

 

[MillvilleWx]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That was the storm that saved the winter. https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2006/12-Feb-06.html

One of the greatest snowstorms I ever witnessed. Had 4.5”/hr at the height with pure TSSN+ for over a hour. Measured right around 20” in Carney. Randallstown had over 2’ 

The things I would do for that storm again 

[CAPE]

6 hours ago, HighStakes said:

Euro remains considerably colder for the weekend against the GFS. Also negates any significant warm up after the cold shot.

Both the GEFS and EPS have high pressure pressing southward along the east coast for much of Christmas week with the last bit of Canadian cold hanging on, while the rest of the continent is overcome by the Pacific onslaught and above normal temps. Lucky us!

[Ralph Wiggum]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Both the GEFS and EPS have high pressure pressing southward along the east coast for much of Christmas week with the last bit of Canadian cold hanging on, while the rest of the continent is overcome by the Pacific onslaught and above normal temps. Lucky us!

Best.

Christmas present.

Ever.

[cbmclean]

Not sure if this will verify, but it it does, we deserve it!!  During this -PDOom period, cold has been shunted away from the eastern Conus like we had a laser shield around us.  Which, with the SER, we kind of have had a shield..

[frd]

31 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Both the GEFS and EPS have high pressure pressing southward along the east coast for much of Christmas week with the last bit of Canadian cold hanging on, while the rest of the continent is overcome by the Pacific onslaught and above normal temps. Lucky us!

Canada is also well above normal with some of their anomalies in excess of 30 degrees above normal. That indicates no further cold intrusions for the U.S. for the foreseeable future.

[Interstate]

40 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

One of the greatest snowstorms I ever witnessed. Had 4.5”/hr at the height with pure TSSN+ for over a hour. Measured right around 20” in Carney. Randallstown had over 2’ 

The things I would do for that storm again 

Yep I remember this like it was yesterday. The governor closed all roads during the height of the storm. 

[psuhoffman]

39 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

One of the greatest snowstorms I ever witnessed. Had 4.5”/hr at the height with pure TSSN+ for over a hour. Measured right around 20” in Carney. Randallstown had over 2’ 

The things I would do for that storm again 

I remember people complaining because the snow melted fast because it got into the 50s 3 days after the storm.  Imagine that now. How the mighty have fallen. 

[Kevin Reilly]

20 minutes ago, frd said:

Canada is also well above normal with some of their anomalies in excess of 30 degrees above normal. That indicates no further cold intrusions for the U.S. for the foreseeable future.

Winter over after December 23rd the reindeer didn’t see its antlers shadow 6 days until Spring!

[CAPE]

39 minutes ago, frd said:

Canada is also well above normal with some of their anomalies in excess of 30 degrees above normal. That indicates no further cold intrusions for the U.S. for the foreseeable future.

A week of above normal isnt a disaster.

[87storms]

Winter over after December 23rd the reindeer didn’t see its antlers shadow 6 days until Spring!

It is kinda wild, though, that in 3 months it’ll be March Madness. Relying on backloaded winters is risky business. It’ll be go time soon.


.

[mdhokie]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Canada is also well above normal with some of their anomalies in excess of 30 degrees above normal. That indicates no further cold intrusions for the U.S. for the foreseeable future.

But what about Mongolia?

[WEATHER53]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Ya we are talking about the same thing just using different terminology 

Yea and now we know 

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

One of the greatest snowstorms I ever witnessed. Had 4.5”/hr at the height with pure TSSN+ for over a hour. Measured right around 20” in Carney. Randallstown had over 2’ 

The things I would do for that storm again 

Big time thunder snow here. 4/5 reports  and 3”ph rates. 

weird sounding in heavy snow-not rumbling ; more like a muffled blast

 

[brooklynwx99]

welp. CP Nino?

[brooklynwx99]

omfg

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

omfg

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

you're getting colder air filtering under the block. wouldn't take all that long with a -EPO. the first system around NYD is likely too warm, though any follow up as the block decays could be larger. we'll see. I just like seeing the -EPO/-NAO developing

[CAPE]

29 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you're getting colder air filtering under the block. wouldn't take all that long with a -EPO. the first system around NYD is likely too warm, though any follow up as the block decays could be larger. we'll see. I just like seeing the -EPO/-NAO developing

Yeah the EPO ridge is the key to getting cold again. The +heights on the panel from your post are mostly a result of the anomalous warmth that builds across Canada in the days prior. Once the EPO ridge develops and colder air starts to get reestablished,  hopefully we see a period with the NAO neutral/slightly negative. The very end of the latest EPS/GEFS hinting at it and the Weeklies are depicting this at least for a time in early Jan. That's probably our first potential window.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

omfg

I remember a pattern like this a few years back sorry I don't recall specifically, but there was a sprawling 500mb ridge across Canada, we'll thought this has got to produce, and I'm almost certain we got shutout due to temp issues and cold air source blocked.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

And there's exactly what it looked like lol. Thanks @CAPE

It is all about where that look progresses at h5. That look itself verbatim really doesn't do much for us.

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I remember a pattern like this a few years back sorry I don't recall specifically, but there was a sprawling 500mb ridge across Canada, we'll thought this has got to produce, and I'm almost certain we got shutout due to temp issues and cold air source blocked.

As @CAPE posted above, that’s not blocking it’s the anomalous warmth in Canada showing those hgts. 

[CAPE]

lol NAM

Someone should start a thread.

[dailylurker]

42 minutes ago, CAPE said:

lol NAM

Someone should start a thread.

For rain? Looks like it gives eastern areas a wet weekend lol

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

For rain? Looks like it gives eastern areas a wet weekend lol

Its snow on the 12km

Other guidance has some precip but mostly rain for our area.

[brooklynwx99]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

As @CAPE posted above, that’s not blocking it’s the anomalous warmth in Canada showing those hgts. 

if you advert anomalously warm air up towards Greenland, it can act like a block. nature doesn’t care why heights are high over the Davis Strait as long as they are 

it wouldn’t be the 1-2nd that you’d see a storm risk, it would be more like the 3-6th as the -EPO brings in colder air and the high heights over northern Canada weaken

[frd]

27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if you advert anomalously warm air up towards Greenland, it can act like a block. nature doesn’t care why heights are high over the Davis Strait as long as they are 

it wouldn’t be the 1-2nd that you’d see a storm risk, it would be more like the 3-6th as the -EPO brings in colder air and the high heights over northern Canada weaken

Big changes start during this time frame as alluded to you and @CAPE

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1869713225148686705

 

[CAPE]

18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if you advert anomalously warm air up towards Greenland, it can act like a block. nature doesn’t care why heights are high over the Davis Strait as long as they are 

it wouldn’t be the 1-2nd that you’d see a storm risk, it would be more like the 3-6th as the -EPO brings in colder air and the high heights over northern Canada weaken

It's a bit wonky the way it forms and as advertised it doesn't become the classic rex block with a low in the 50-50 position(trough is displaced further out in the N Atlantic). No cold air around  until the ridge goes up out west. Lets see how persistent it is as we get colder air in place. If it doesn't block/divert the flow and keep HP locked in to our north with storms tracking underneath then it isn't very useful lol. We have seen this pretty frequently in recent winters.

[stormy]

13 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

And lack of stj influence means lack of Miller As to run into our cold air at the right time and from the snow making direction 

Thanks!   You are 100% right!

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Big changes start during this time frame as alluded to you and @CAPE

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1869713225148686705

 

The big 3 global ensembles have a significantly -EPO at the end of their 0z runs. Slightly -AO and NAO. GEFS surface temps still a bit on the warm side but the Euro has about average trending slightly below. Canadian a bit colder.