December Medium/ Long Range

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Let’s hope the extended guidance isn’t correct. Yes it’s a cold look but assuming those day 20-30 looks are correct I don’t like the long wave configuration at all to get a meaningful snowstorm. Maybe a clipper or a weak wave but there is no STJ and the trough axis is too far east to amplify a NS wave in time. It would be a frustrating pattern imo. 
 

Let’s hope the day 15 is correct and it doesn’t roll forward to that. 

And besides...has there ever been a time we've had an STJ in a non-nin̈o?

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

That is more Nina, but I'll be honest I'm not wasting much time on the extended post ensemble guidance, the skill beyond week 3 is so low it's really just for fun.  But the genesis of the January pattern is now within range on the end of the ensembles.  This is the look that had my interest on the EPS and its been there for a few runs...GEPS also...a little less so on GEFS but I think its just slower to get to it.  

This is more so a nino pacific look, along with the correlated Atlantic side blocking and a split flow across N Amer.  This would be a rare look in a cold enso season.  But enso has not been as reliable lately so who knows.  I am not making any definitive calls on anything yet, this is all way way way out there...but I've taken heat for pretty much debbing on everything this season so far...so I thought it was worth it to say this is the first time I've seen anything that at least peaked my interest and made me take a second look.  

And more Mongolian push reloading 

[rjvanals]

Interesting that the 12z models still give us a bit of hope for WAA snow on Christmas 

[CAPE]

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Let’s hope the extended guidance isn’t correct. Yes it’s a cold look but assuming those day 20-30 looks are correct I don’t like the long wave configuration at all to get a meaningful snowstorm. Maybe a clipper or a weak wave but there is no STJ and the trough axis is too far east to amplify a NS wave in time. It would be a frustrating pattern imo. 
 

Let’s hope the day 15 is correct and it doesn’t roll forward to that. 

That day 15 look is devoid of cold. Those +heights in the NA are a remnant of the bad pattern leading up to it. We can't snow with that. The pattern needs to progress to the -EPO/TPV combo to bring the cold. The risk is cold and dry, but gotta have the cold. The trough will probably broaden/shift west as the ridge axis does(typical Nina). Keep the EPO ridge and time a wave or 2. That's how we win lately in a Nina. Forget big snow. Forget your 40" climo average. Be content with a few light/ moderate events. Beach chase if there is an offshore bomb.

[87storms]

23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And besides...has there ever been a time we've had an STJ in a non-nin̈o?

I'm beginning to wonder if the STJ even exists anymore.  The lack of a consistent southern stream or fetch of moisture from the GOM is actually starting to get a little weird.

[HighStakes]

Euro remains considerably colder for the weekend against the GFS. Also negates any significant warm up after the cold shot.

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I'm beginning to wonder if the STJ even exists anymore.  The lack of a consistent southern stream or fetch of moisture from the GOM is actually starting to get a little weird.

It was active last year, was it not? But we couldn't get any stable blocking.

[psuhoffman]

32 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And besides...has there ever been a time we've had an STJ in a non-nin̈o?

Of course...we have had snowstorms in a nina, and most of them have some STJ influence.  It's really hard for us to get a significant snow here from a pure NS wave.  It's just, unfortunately, not nearly as common in a nina, but not impossible.  

 

Here is an example.  One of our best cold enso snowstorms of this century.  It was a hybrid of a digging NS wave phasing with a STJ wave.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Of course...we have had snowstorms in a nina, and most of them have some STJ influence.

Is that how we got that snow event on the second day of spring in 2018?

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That day 15 look is devoid of cold. Those +heights in the NA are a remnant of the bad pattern leading up to it. We can't snow with that. The pattern needs to progress to the -EPO/TPV combo to bring the cold. The risk is cold and dry, but gotta have the cold. The trough will probably broaden/shift west as the ridge axis does(typical Nina). Keep the EPO ridge and time a wave or 2. That's how we win lately in a Nina. Forget big snow. Forget your 40" climo average. Be content with a few light/ moderate events. Beach chase if there is an offshore bomb.

Everyone is free to root for what they want.  Keep in mind we have different situations...where you are actually has a significantly better chance of getting lucky in a EPO TNH pattern than 95 west.  So some of what I am about to say is very specific to 95 west... but no thank you on the TNH EPO thing...because its damn near impossible to get a snowstorm in those patterns here and I root for snowstorms not pity flakes.  That is me, everyone is free to be happy with some mood flakes, but for me its snowstorm or bust.  I don't mean HECS, a 6" storm can be fine also, but I am not in this game to track 1-2" naissance events.  Frankly if you tell me now that I will get 12" the rest of this winter and it will all come 1-2" at a time, I would say forget it I would rather just get shut out and not waste my time worrying about it and move on with my life.  2023 when I got absolutely no snow was much less frustrating to me than 2009 when I got 20" but it all came 1" at a time and I was left wanting to punch cute woodland creatures by the end of the year.  

 

So I will take my chances with the Nino split flow look, because thats how I actually get snowstorms.  Just because it's getting warmer does not mean suddenly there is some other path to getting real snowstorms...if it gets too warm for that to work it will just mean we dont get snowstorms anymore.  But I am not rooting for the wrong pattern just because the right one might not work anymore...I'll keep banging my head into that wall until its proven that we've warmed too much for it to work...and at that point I will check out completely and not look at all anymore same as I would if I lived in Florida in winter.  

[Maestrobjwa]

46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Of course...we have had snowstorms in a nina, and most of them have some STJ influence.  It's really hard for us to get a significant snow here from a pure NS wave.  It's just, unfortunately, not nearly as common in a nina, but not impossible.  

 

Here is an example.  One of our best cold enso snowstorms of this century.  It was a hybrid of a digging NS wave phasing with a STJ wave.  

Couldn't make out the date...this February 11, 2011?

[CAPE]

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Everyone is free to root for what they want.  Keep in mind we have different situations...where you are actually has a significantly better chance of getting lucky in a EPO TNH pattern than 95 west.  So some of what I am about to say is very specific to 95 west... but no thank you on the TNH EPO thing...because its damn near impossible to get a snowstorm in those patterns here and I root for snowstorms not pity flakes.  That is me, everyone is free to be happy with some mood flakes, but for me its snowstorm or bust.  I don't mean HECS, a 6" storm can be fine also, but I am not in this game to track 1-2" naissance events.  Frankly if you tell me now that I will get 12" the rest of this winter and it will all come 1-2" at a time, I would say forget it I would rather just get shut out and not waste my time worrying about it and move on with my life.  2023 when I got absolutely no snow was much less frustrating to me than 2009 when I got 20" but it all came 1" at a time and I was left wanting to punch cute woodland creatures by the end of the year.  

 

So I will take my chances with the Nino split flow look, because thats how I actually get snowstorms.  Just because it's getting warmer does not mean suddenly there is some other path to getting real snowstorms...if it gets too warm for that to work it will just mean we dont get snowstorms anymore.  But I am not rooting for the wrong pattern just because the right one might not work anymore...I'll keep banging my head into that wall until its proven that we've warmed too much for it to work...and at that point I will check out completely and not look at all anymore same as I would if I lived in Florida in winter.  

Understood. Jan 22 was a pretty good month for a big chunk of our subforum though, not just the eastern part.

Again, I think what you are referring to at D15 is essentially something transient that resembles a good pattern- not a Nino like pattern that's going to persist. Take a look at h5 and the North American surface temps on the EPS between Dec 28 and Jan 1.

At the end of the run you can see the jet retraction/retrograding NPAC trough and the western ridge start to go up. That is the beginning of scouring out the Pacific air from our source region. Now all the extended products could be wrong- but they continue that pattern progression.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Couldn't make out the date...this February 11, 2011?

Feb 2006, the lead up to the storm that dropped 10-20" across the area.  Probably our second best cold enso snowstorm of the last 30 years.  

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Understood. Jan 22 was a pretty good month for a big chunk of our subforum though, not just the eastern part.

Again, I think what you are referring to at D15 is essentially something transient that resembles a good pattern- not a Nino like pattern that's going to persist. Take a look at h5 and the North American surface temps on the EPS between Dec 28 and Jan 1.

At the end of the run you can see the jet retraction/retrograding NPAC trough and the western ridge start to go up. That is the beginning of scouring out the Pacific air from our source region. Now all the extended products could be wrong- but they continue that pattern progression.

Obviously this is my bias but it wasn't really that good up here...

But this is where I am coming from.  In the last 30 years there have been 17 cold enso seasons.  In those seasons I have had 17 snowstorms of 8" or more.  So we are not talking about some super rare thing here, it's not impossible.  And I checked, all of these also featured accumulating snowfall into the DC/Balt area and most of the were warning level there also!  

 

So this is what we are looking for, and it doesn't look all that different from what we look for in a warm enso...the fact is to get a 8" snowstorm we need the same things whether its a nino or a nina, its just harder to get in a nina so it happens less often...but not NEVER just less. 

So my point is, we need to hope we get a transient nino look and luck into a snowstorm during that because that is how we get snowstorms in a nina, not typically from a TNH EPO pattern, those are cold/dry most of the time.  

[psuhoffman]

The scoreboard right now is kinda my point...we've been in a TNH EPO driven cold pattern since Thanksgiving and we have absolutely nothing to show for it outside the higher elevations.  We have to get the trough axis further west and some STJ injected into the pattern or its likely to be more of the same.  

[stormy]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The scoreboard right now is kinda my point...we've been in a TNH EPO driven cold pattern since Thanksgiving and we have absolutely nothing to show for it outside the higher elevations.  We have to get the trough axis further west and some STJ injected into the pattern or its likely to be more of the same.  

I completely agree with the last sentence. During our snowdrought, STJ action has been limited.

[Weather Will]

WB latest EPS extended.... patience will be needed. Hopefully something to track by the end of the first week of January. Maps for 7 day period ending the 13th.

[peribonca]

18z nam got pretty close to a good ole fashion naming at 42-48h

[beavis1729]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The scoreboard right now is kinda my point...we've been in a TNH EPO driven cold pattern since Thanksgiving and we have absolutely nothing to show for it outside the higher elevations.  We have to get the trough axis further west and some STJ injected into the pattern or its likely to be more of the same.  

Ding ding ding.  This is the same issue in the Midwest/Plains/Great Lakes too. 

While one could say we've had a relatively chilly December (I say "relatively" since the 1991-2020 normals have warmed so much from 30-40 years ago, so you really need a -5F departure these days in Dec to be meaningful), only the downwind areas of the great lakes have seen any respectable snow this season.  And when it warms up in between, even the lake snow melts except for far northern areas...so we're left with bare ground in the source regions...in which case any better/colder pattern which may come along in Jan can't maximize the cold.  If it's not one thing, it's another.   

This pattern would be fine later in the season if there were already widespread snow on the ground, as it would help preserve snow cover and reinforce cold temps.  But not in Nov/early Dec - just bad timing.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Feb 2006, the lead up to the storm that dropped 10-20" across the area.  Probably our second best cold enso snowstorm of the last 30 years.  

That was the storm that saved the winter. https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2006/12-Feb-06.html

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That was the storm that saved the winter. https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2006/12-Feb-06.html

That’s realistically what we’re rooting for in a cold enso.  There were two examples in 50 years with more than one significant snow. 1996 and 2014. Those were unicorn fluke season. For the rest of the cold enso we hope to get lucky one time. March 99, Jan 2000, Feb 2006, Jan 2011, March 2018 it can happen. If we don’t get that one lucky hit then it’s probably gonna be a total dud like 2008, 2012, 2017, 2023

[87storms]

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Everyone is free to root for what they want.  Keep in mind we have different situations...where you are actually has a significantly better chance of getting lucky in a EPO TNH pattern than 95 west.  So some of what I am about to say is very specific to 95 west... but no thank you on the TNH EPO thing...because its damn near impossible to get a snowstorm in those patterns here and I root for snowstorms not pity flakes.  That is me, everyone is free to be happy with some mood flakes, but for me its snowstorm or bust.  I don't mean HECS, a 6" storm can be fine also, but I am not in this game to track 1-2" naissance events.  Frankly if you tell me now that I will get 12" the rest of this winter and it will all come 1-2" at a time, I would say forget it I would rather just get shut out and not waste my time worrying about it and move on with my life.  2023 when I got absolutely no snow was much less frustrating to me than 2009 when I got 20" but it all came 1" at a time and I was left wanting to punch cute woodland creatures by the end of the year.  

 

So I will take my chances with the Nino split flow look, because thats how I actually get snowstorms.  Just because it's getting warmer does not mean suddenly there is some other path to getting real snowstorms...if it gets too warm for that to work it will just mean we dont get snowstorms anymore.  But I am not rooting for the wrong pattern just because the right one might not work anymore...I'll keep banging my head into that wall until its proven that we've warmed too much for it to work...and at that point I will check out completely and not look at all anymore same as I would if I lived in Florida in winter.  

I don't mind nuisance snow early in the season (like now), but after a few of them it's go time.  It also depends on whether it's a holiday...1-2" on Chrismukkah or NYE would be cool.

[87storms]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Understood. Jan 22 was a pretty good month for a big chunk of our subforum though, not just the eastern part.

Again, I think what you are referring to at D15 is essentially something transient that resembles a good pattern- not a Nino like pattern that's going to persist. Take a look at h5 and the North American surface temps on the EPS between Dec 28 and Jan 1.

At the end of the run you can see the jet retraction/retrograding NPAC trough and the western ridge start to go up. That is the beginning of scouring out the Pacific air from our source region. Now all the extended products could be wrong- but they continue that pattern progression.

The 2nd and 3rd Jan '22 snowstorms were cool, but the first one that gave Cabin John several inches and Frederick several flakes made me question my post count (even more than I already do).

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, stormy said:

I completely agree with the last sentence. During our snowdrought, STJ action has been limited.

And lack of stj influence means lack of Miller As to run into our cold air at the right time and from the snow making direction 

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EPS extended.... patience will be needed. Hopefully something to track by the end of the first week of January. Maps for 7 day period ending the 13th.

Can you post the 700hr H5 map?  I wanna see something....

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

And lack of stj influence means lack of Miller As to run into our cold air at the right time and from the snow making direction 

Ya we are talking about the same thing just using different terminology 

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Can you post the 700hr H5 map?  I wanna see something....

Unfortunately it was sponsored by a Nigerian prince and is currently under embargo due to an unfortunate technicality with his treasury. He told me if you wire me 10k he can clear it up and he will send you a million dollars and release the images!  

[ravensrule]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Unfortunately it was sponsored by a Nigerian prince and is currently under embargo due to an unfortunate technicality with his treasury. He told me if you wire me 10k he can clear it up and he will send you a million dollars and release the images!  

Randy thinks you’re talking about porn. Please don’t excite him unnecessarily. 

[cbmclean]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Unfortunately it was sponsored by a Nigerian prince and is currently under embargo due to an unfortunate technicality with his treasury. He told me if you wire me 10k he can clear it up and he will send you a million dollars and release the images!  

If Nigerian scammers started sending e-mails to east coast snow weenies to release feet of impounded Nigerian snow for a small up-front payment, I'm not completely confident we could all resist the temptation.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Randy thinks you’re talking about porn. Please don’t excite him unnecessarily. 

I’m sure he could throw that in for free, what with the holidays and all.