NorthArlington101 Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Ensembles this morning start to cool Canada down around Jan 1-2, so I’m thinking we start to see colder air build back in around Jan 3-5 just in time for my Jan 7-14 vacay. Last time I was there was the Jan 3, 2022 storm. Book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 15 hours ago, cbmclean said: What are you using to visualize the state of the "Mongolian resource". After it reasserts itself this weekend, what is the time frame you believe it will start to impact the sensible weather in the eastern conus? 500 mb current maps and then allow 8 ish days for it to arrive here when the set up is correct there. Does not matter much what’s downstream, that higher pressure will work down here. This method allows for observation of actual current weather and I can forecast from decades of observational experience and outcomes what will occur next with this aspect . It’s not microscopic with 30 outcomes changing every 6 hours. It’s a binocular style approach covering just that one single aspect that works very effectively for outcomes in our region as yo cold air Thank you for asking 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 Gfs and GGEM both took a small step back from overnight for Friday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Gfs and GGEM both took a small step back from overnight for Friday. We need a "shocker" emoji. The temperature anomalies over Hudson Bay are pretty crazy warm on the GFS. Ugly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 lol GGEM near 0F Monday morning. GFS upper 10s/low 20s. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 3 minutes ago, dailylurker said: We need a "shocker" emoji. The temperature anomalies over Hudson Bay are pretty crazy warm on the GFS. Ugly Time for JB to start tweeting about how upper 30s are “still cold!” For Canada. In late December. Along Hudson Bay. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 33 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Ensembles this morning start to cool Canada down around Jan 1-2, so I’m thinking we start to see colder air build back in around Jan 3-5 In return from Revelstoke on the 4th so the timing checks out. Euro 15 day snowfall…there are still some rooms available at the lodge lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Time for JB to start tweeting about how upper 30s are “still cold!” For Canada. In late December. Along Hudson Bay. It’s the coldest 35 degrees ever 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 26 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: 500 mb current maps and then allow 8 ish days for it to arrive here when the set up is correct there. Does not matter much what’s downstream, that higher pressure will work down here. This method allows for observation of actual current weather and I can forecast from decades of observational experience and outcomes what will occur next with this aspect . It’s not microscopic with 30 outcomes changing every 6 hours. It’s a binocular style approach covering just that one single aspect that works very effectively for outcomes in our region as yo cold air Thank you for asking Legit question not trying to fight trying to learn. The correlation to cold is legitimate, however doesn’t it depend on the mid latitude long wave pattern across North America? That cold does not necessarily have to get directed here, and so how do you factor in that part of the equation? Thanks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Time for JB to start tweeting about how upper 30s are “still cold!” For Canada. In late December. Along Hudson Bay. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 42 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Gfs and GGEM both took a small step back from overnight for Friday. Don't know what any of that means. I only speak German now. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Legit question not trying to fight trying to learn. The correlation to cold is legitimate, however doesn’t it depend on the mid latitude long wave pattern across North America? That cold does not necessarily have to get directed here, and so how do you factor in that part of the equation? Thanks. I dont know the mechanics but when Mongo is in the pink and especially the deeper pinks/reds then that cold air almost always bullies its way to us . And again Im not sure why but when the long wave is as you stated, the Mongo region is in the blue already anyway . Probably not cause and effect yet it is consistent Many of us who started in 60’s didn’t have the tools that exist now. We kinda had to learn how to forecast from the ground up. It’s not exactly appropriate to this discussion but may shed light I think on how we end up in “conflict” at times. Thanks for the question 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 Euro sucked for Friday, but perhaps the more interesting thing is it has some areas just NW of the cities below freezing from Saturday morning through Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 51 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: lol GGEM near 0F Monday morning. GFS upper 10s/low 20s. Euro splits the difference lol. Has me about 10 degrees Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 6 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Euro splits the difference lol. Has me about 10 degrees Monday morning. I guess it's nice to know it can still be cold... but so annoying we can't get things to line up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Best case scenario is when the pac jet starts to retract we get enough cross polar flow to replenish our cold source quickly. Worst case would be we don’t and we waste 1-2 weeks of a better long wave pattern with unworkable temps then by the time it’s getting cold enough the pattern is breaking down. The synergy between the jet extension and the -------PDO/SER is killer for us because when Canada starts to reload, the SER goes all Gandalf "YOU SHALL NOT PASS" and slows /prevents the cold from reaching us. This year there seems to be a tendency for -EPO/+TNH which we have seen can have the capability of squashing the SER so there may be reason, if not for optimism, at least reduced pessimism: maybe it will be different this year. Of course we might just end up back to cold and dry, but I personally prefer that to flametorch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I guess it's nice to know it can still be cold... but so annoying we can't get things to line up. That's definitely the downside of relying on -EPO. Will we see "domestic" cold return to workability when/if the PDO shifts? Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I guess it's nice to know it can still be cold... but so annoying we can't get things to line up. It has been frustrating however it looks like things could be lining up for a 2-3 week period after New Year's. Teleconnections look good. Hopefully things stay on track. Then it's just timing and luck as you know. EPO goes negative around 12/29 at the same time PNA goes positive. Also looks like AO head towards negative with a slightly negative NAO. Just give us a decent shot at a couple moderate events with a light event or 2 thrown in during January. That's all I ask for! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 17 Author Share Posted December 17 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: In return from Revelstoke on the 4th so the timing checks out. Euro 15 day snowfall…there are still some rooms available at the lodge lol Yeah I couldn’t book any major trips this year because I was going through some stuff earlier and now I just started my new job. But keeping an eye on canaan when it gets cold again, and I have the points saved up for another trip out west next year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 25 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I guess it's nice to know it can still be cold... but so annoying we can't get things to line up. Do you not remember last year right before Christmas when the high was 8 degrees in Baltimore? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 Just now, Interstate said: Do you not remember last year right before Christmas when the high was 8 degrees in Baltimore? Nah, I've got a goldfish memory. You could tell me anything. Feel like a BN December is out of the ordinary lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: Do you not remember last year right before Christmas when the high was 8 degrees in Baltimore? Shoveled that cold for days and days. So much cold shoveling. Be careful, I said, don't overexert yourself, shoveling the cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 12 minutes ago, Interstate said: Do you not remember last year right before Christmas when the high was 8 degrees in Baltimore? What? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 18 minutes ago, HighStakes said: What? I need some of the strong stuff he is smoking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 32 minutes ago, Interstate said: Do you not remember last year right before Christmas when the high was 8 degrees in Baltimore? 2 years ago.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: In return from Revelstoke on the 4th so the timing checks out. Euro 15 day snowfall…there are still some rooms available at the lodge lol How are you getting WB maps to display in mm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 1 hour ago, Interstate said: Do you not remember last year right before Christmas when the high was 8 degrees in Baltimore? Two years ago Xmas eve had a low of 6 at BWI. BWI hasn’t had a high temp in the single digits in decades? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Two years ago Xmas eve had a low of 6 at BWI. BWI hasn’t had a high temp in the single digits in decades? Sorry I was mistaken... it was two years ago. And the wind was howling too. That was the only real cold spell of that winter I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 EPS with a quick pattern change. By Jan 1?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 17 Share Posted December 17 I believe you're thinking of Christmas Eve 2022 when the high was 20 but it felt much colder. The last Arctic outbreak I can remember was January 5 and 6th of 2018 when the high temperature failed to reach 20 in Baltimore. The last day with a sub-10 high was January 19 of 1994 when the high was 5. The lowest high ever (3 F) occurred on February 10, 1899 during "the greatest Arctic outbreak in history" according to David Ludlum. Temperatures fell to 0 F along the beaches of the Gulf Coast and ice flowed from the mouth of the Mississippi River into the Gulf ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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