jayyy Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 IconThe ICON the only model that shifted? Not gonna hold my breath if that’s the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 Gfs made a massive jump 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 Gfs made a massive jump … show us the maps padawan (I’m on my phone) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 17, 2024 Author Share Posted December 17, 2024 Judging from the 500mb vort, the gfs and icon aren’t that far off from each other. Icon is more negatively tilted and I think that’s what we need here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 CMC shifted close too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 … show us the maps padawan (I’m on my phone)Phones can also show images 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 WB 0Z EURO: 7am, 1pm and 7pm temps Christmas Day... not a torch... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 The shortwave energy is sharper and goes more neutral over the last few runs of the GFS. The surface reflection from the weak clipper is also a bit stronger so maybe between it and the developing offshore low we get a bit of moisture transport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 Dang. Only icon gets it done, but overnight runs were a lot closer. On a different note, big disparity for post-Xmas torch potential. Euro/EPS seem to keep us wedged, so temps are AN but nothing I’d call a torch. Gfs suite doesn’t do that so we’d be popping some of those ridiculous +20F days potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 50 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Dang. Only icon gets it done, but overnight runs were a lot closer. On a different note, big disparity for post-Xmas torch potential. Euro/EPS seem to keep us wedged, so temps are AN but nothing I’d call a torch. Gfs suite doesn’t do that so we’d be popping some of those ridiculous +20F days potentially. Surface temps aside, that height pattern in Canada that all ens are showing down the line is prob a shutout pattern. At least for me down here. The quicker we see the other side of that come into focus the better. On another note, I'll be in Bethesda for Xmas. Not all that jazzzed about returning to the fray but at least I know the local customs and my way around lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 Surface temps aside, that height pattern in Canada that all ens are showing down the line is prob a shutout pattern. At least for me down here. The quicker we see the other side of that come into focus the better. On another note, I'll be in Bethesda for Xmas. Not all that jazzzed about returning to the fray but at least I know the local customs and my way around lolMake sure you catch a Washington wizards NBA game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 30 minutes ago, Ji said: Make sure you catch a Washington wizards NBA game Crossed my mind. The last minute ticket game is fun. Last game I went to was in a Corp box. I think Amgen. Some guy got 4 tickets for free at work and didn't want to pay taxes on the gift so he sold them for $300. There was a fully stocked bar/kitchen lol. Corp execs did show up but they didn't give a crap about why we were there. It was a blast. Never forget it. Wiz beat Brooklyn to cap it off lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Surface temps aside, that height pattern in Canada that all ens are showing down the line is prob a shutout pattern. At least for me down here. The quicker we see the other side of that come into focus the better. On another note, I'll be in Bethesda for Xmas. Not all that jazzzed about returning to the fray but at least I know the local customs and my way around lol Yea, unfortunately we’ve seen numerous times recently that when Canada torches we just can’t overcome it even when we do get lucky with a perfect track wave. Best case scenario is when the pac jet starts to retract we get enough cross polar flow to replenish our cold source quickly. Worst case would be we don’t and we waste 1-2 weeks of a better long wave pattern with unworkable temps then by the time it’s getting cold enough the pattern is breaking down. We’ve seen that story a few times lately also. The winter might break based on that variable. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 GEPS and GEFS with 2 markedly different looks at range. Would be quite a contrast wrt apparent weather for us: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Surface temps aside, that height pattern in Canada that all ens are showing down the line is prob a shutout pattern. At least for me down here. The quicker we see the other side of that come into focus the better. On another note, I'll be in Bethesda for Xmas. Not all that jazzzed about returning to the fray but at least I know the local customs and my way around lol After Friday-Saturday, there’s maybe a Hail Mary window right around Xmas. GGEM showed this last night. But otherwise, we’re shitting the blinds until first weekend in January I think. And agree with @psuhoffman that winter probably turns based on how much we cash in during January. I hold little hope for February and March this year given cool ENSO climo. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 GEPS and GEFS with 2 markedly different looks at range. Would be quite a contrast wrt apparent weather for us: Looks more like differences in timing than pattern. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 17, 2024 Author Share Posted December 17, 2024 41 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: After Friday-Saturday, there’s maybe a Hail Mary window right around Xmas. GGEM showed this last night. But otherwise, we’re shitting the blinds until first weekend in January I think. And agree with @psuhoffman that winter probably turns based on how much we cash in during January. I hold little hope for February and March this year given cool ENSO climo. FWIW raindance thinks Jan will be warm and Feb cold for us. Normally I'd disregard, but he's been killing it for the last 8 years apparently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 27 minutes ago, 87storms said: Looks more like differences in timing than pattern. Yeah all the ensembles depict the same general pattern evolution. Canadian is quickest in getting some colder air eastward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 12z ICON holds steady, if not a little improved, for snow Friday. Temp issues in the beltway, though. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 For my part of northern Balt county, that would be an absolute miracle. Dying of thirst in a snow desert miracle. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 All Hail Der Kaiser! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Dang, new ENS suite to bug the people with Pivotal subscriptions to check? Crazy. Also just realized that the ICON has an ens suite on Pivotal. It does support it's OP, btw. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 17, 2024 Author Share Posted December 17, 2024 Ensembles this morning start to cool Canada down around Jan 1-2, so I’m thinking we start to see colder air build back in around Jan 3-5 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Ensembles this morning start to cool Canada down around Jan 1-2, so I’m thinking we start to see colder air build back in around Jan 3-5 just in time for my Jan 7-14 vacay. Last time I was there was the Jan 3, 2022 storm. Book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 15 hours ago, cbmclean said: What are you using to visualize the state of the "Mongolian resource". After it reasserts itself this weekend, what is the time frame you believe it will start to impact the sensible weather in the eastern conus? 500 mb current maps and then allow 8 ish days for it to arrive here when the set up is correct there. Does not matter much what’s downstream, that higher pressure will work down here. This method allows for observation of actual current weather and I can forecast from decades of observational experience and outcomes what will occur next with this aspect . It’s not microscopic with 30 outcomes changing every 6 hours. It’s a binocular style approach covering just that one single aspect that works very effectively for outcomes in our region as yo cold air Thank you for asking 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 Gfs and GGEM both took a small step back from overnight for Friday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Gfs and GGEM both took a small step back from overnight for Friday. We need a "shocker" emoji. The temperature anomalies over Hudson Bay are pretty crazy warm on the GFS. Ugly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 lol GGEM near 0F Monday morning. GFS upper 10s/low 20s. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 3 minutes ago, dailylurker said: We need a "shocker" emoji. The temperature anomalies over Hudson Bay are pretty crazy warm on the GFS. Ugly Time for JB to start tweeting about how upper 30s are “still cold!” For Canada. In late December. Along Hudson Bay. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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