87storms Posted Monday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:37 PM Man—the tension I’ve seen throughout this whole website is wild. Getting an area-wide 1-3” of snow would be the equivalent of achieving world peace.You must be new here. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Monday at 05:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:47 PM EURO AI actually looks pretty interesting for Friday, of course it's too warm though. But perhaps if we get a little deeper low we can also get a little cooler temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Monday at 06:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:04 PM The bolded is the bottom line. For a lot of us, we have had bupkis so far. On top of many years of...the same. Watching weeks go by where in theory it might have had a chance to snow and getting nothing is less than ideal. In any event, maybe more posters who have actually seen measureable snow can keep putting up snapshots of OP runs at range showing deep reds of over north america. That is the truly helpful stuff. One step closer...Sent from my Pixel 8 Pro using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted Monday at 06:16 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:16 PM Well, looks like a temperature-appropriate christmas is maybe in the cards? That would be nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Monday at 06:21 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:21 PM Guessing people won’t be shocked to learn the 12z EPS was a step back - lost a lot of the interested members. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Monday at 06:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:34 PM 12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Guessing people won’t be shocked to learn the 12z EPS was a step back - lost a lot of the interested members. I mean if New England is capitulating then it's going to be bad here too. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Monday at 06:36 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 06:36 PM 1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I mean if New England is capitulating then it's going to be bad here too. They’re capitulating in mid December? Sheesh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Monday at 06:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:37 PM Just now, Terpeast said: They’re capitulating in mid December? Sheesh I'm referring to the weekend storm, though they're also seeing the long ranges potentially punting most of January. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Monday at 06:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:38 PM Looks like the gulf is closed for business for the late week clipper systems: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=midRH&runtime=2024121612&fh=102 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Monday at 06:39 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 06:39 PM 1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said: I'm referring to the weekend storm, though they're also seeing the long ranges potentially punting most of January. Yeah I wouldn’t be so quick to punt January. Ensembles/weeklies show the PNA ridge building back 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Monday at 06:53 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:53 PM 9 hours ago, CAPE said: The last few runs of the Euro weeklies are depicting an increasingly colder look for early to mid January. GFSX and CMC weeklies are advertising the same general h5 look for the first half of Jan. All 3 are hinting at +heights building into the NAO space. The Mongolian resource has stayed in play with no shutdown looming and reasserts again this weekend . Just gotta get a southern Miller A and not the to our west junk that the models can’t handle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Monday at 07:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:13 PM 12z CMC ens gets the longwave pattern back to a solid look by Jan 1. Temps are even a bit below normal. Probably a little too soon, but majority of guidance is moving towards this in the LR. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Monday at 07:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:17 PM The Canadian ensembles try to start cross polar flow by New Year's Day. We'll see how it goes, but hopefully we can at least prevent a torch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Monday at 07:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:27 PM 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: 12z CMC ens gets the longwave pattern back to a solid look by Jan 1. Temps are even a bit below normal. Probably a little too soon, but majority of guidance is moving towards this in the LR. It's rushing it, I don't get back until the 4th 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted Monday at 07:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:40 PM This look made me throw up a little - Hope CMC is right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Monday at 07:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:45 PM 5 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: This look made me throw up a little - Hope CMC is right! Looks like spv going to get squeezed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Monday at 07:58 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:58 PM 17 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: This look made me throw up a little - Hope CMC is right! Look at that torch in the Alps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Monday at 08:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:36 PM 1 hour ago, CAPE said: 12z CMC ens gets the longwave pattern back to a solid look by Jan 1. Temps are even a bit below normal. Probably a little too soon, but majority of guidance is moving towards this in the LR. Yeah, that looks plenty good enough. Hopefully, the GFS is incorrect in the magnitude and expansive area of above normal Temps in North America preceding this output. We definitely don't want a good pattern be ruined by not enough cold coming down from Source Region. We should be fine as long as CPF gets established even if Canada is torched ala GFS as it should cool rapidly. It looks as though some blocking is trying to take shape in this Output as well. We really would want that after CPF fills in the cold as we don't want a 01-02 situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Monday at 08:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:38 PM bamwx is getting nervous 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Monday at 09:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:26 PM 1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Look at that torch in the Alps. That's a 10 mb temp anomaly panel. Not very relevant to sensible weather. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted Monday at 09:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:36 PM 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: That's a 10 mb temp anomaly panel. Not very relevant to sensible weather. It's not meshing well with his holiday vacation plans in the stratosphere 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Monday at 09:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:41 PM The 1-4 week from the 3 pm CPC is warm and dry.................................... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted Monday at 09:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:45 PM 2 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: This look made me throw up a little - Hope CMC is right! Why are you looking at 10 HP temp anomalies? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Monday at 09:57 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:57 PM 15 minutes ago, TSG said: It's not meshing well with his holiday vacation plans in the stratosphere 2 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted Tuesday at 12:29 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:29 AM 5 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: The Mongolian resource has stayed in play with no shutdown looming and reasserts again this weekend . Just gotta get a southern Miller A and not the to our west junk that the models can’t handle What are you using to visualize the state of the "Mongolian resource". After it reasserts itself this weekend, what is the time frame you believe it will start to impact the sensible weather in the eastern conus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted Tuesday at 12:31 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:31 AM 4 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: This look made me throw up a little - Hope CMC is right! Wait, is that a stratospheric avocado in the other hemisphere? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Tuesday at 01:02 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:02 AM 32 minutes ago, cbmclean said: What are you using to visualize the state of the "Mongolian resource". After it reasserts itself this weekend, what is the time frame you believe it will start to impact the sensible weather in the eastern conus? Good question. Don't expect a logical answer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted Tuesday at 01:04 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:04 AM 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Good question. Don't expect a logical answer. "We sent three reporters to Ulaanbaatar to find out!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted Tuesday at 01:06 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:06 AM 5 hours ago, CAPE said: 12z CMC ens gets the longwave pattern back to a solid look by Jan 1. Temps are even a bit below normal. Probably a little too soon, but majority of guidance is moving towards this in the LR. The latest Euro Weeklies today show a workable pattern developing by the beginning of January. This run shows the first 3 weeks of next month should at least give us chances. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Tuesday at 01:15 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:15 AM 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The latest Euro Weeklies today show a workable pattern developing by the beginning of January. This run shows the first 3 weeks of next month should at least give us chances. The extended products have been pretty persistent with the idea of a cold period in January. We shall see if we get lucky with coincidence of antecedent cold and a well timed wave. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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