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December Medium/ Long Range


Terpeast
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The last few runs of the Euro weeklies are depicting an increasingly colder look for early to mid January.

1736640000-wxIcszxafMA.png

GFSX and CMC weeklies are advertising the same general h5 look for the first half of Jan. All 3 are hinting at +heights building into the NAO space.

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The beginning of the advertised pattern change on the extended products is evident at the very end of the latest ens runs. The NPJ is forecast to be (too) extended for the last week of the month, but around NYE there is some retraction that relocates the exit region, so the GoA trough retrogrades while a downstream h5 ridge starts to redevelop. The jet configuration has been shifting, so its hard to say how stable this will be. In general a retracted jet is favored in a Nina, but with the weak nature of it(and tropical forcing) who knows. When it retracts too far westward the characteristic Nina NPAC ridge develops.

1735603200-AZGyhT60pCI.png

 

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9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Friday snow chances are not dead btw. 6z EPS is a pretty decent look for D4-5 with an earlier transfer off hatteras. Euro AI also a better 6z run. 

There are some Miller B SECS-y looks that would make us mad, but definitely a vast improvement from the ens runs I’d been checking yesterday. More of a shot at something legitimate than it seems. 

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Just looked. Somewhat interesting.

1734739200-VgIxxTApzfE.png

Looks like coastal areas might have a better shot at something. Delmarva/coastal NJ, LI, etc. 

Very low expectations west of I-95 other than maybe some snow showers/snow TV

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24 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like coastal areas might have a better shot at something. Delmarva/coastal NJ, LI, etc. 

Very low expectations west of I-95 other than maybe some snow showers/snow TV

I’m not greedy. Just want some festive snow on my Xmas lights. We’re going to have a BN December. That alone seems amazing. Would be nice to have more than a T of snow out of it.

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20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m not greedy. Just want some festive snow on my Xmas lights. We’re going to have a BN December. That alone seems amazing. Would be nice to have more than a T of snow out of it.

We got that one quick evening snow shower 10 days or so ago, which looked really nice as it fell on the lights. No accumulation, but I'll take anything at this point. I'd kill for even .25" of slush to make the house look truly festive!

The below normal December is pretty amazing. Frustrating...but amazing.

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19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m not greedy. Just want some festive snow on my Xmas lights. We’re going to have a BN December. That alone seems amazing. Would be nice to have more than a T of snow out of it.

The bolded is the bottom line. For a lot of us, we have had bupkis so far. On top of many years of...the same.  Watching weeks go by where in theory it might have had a chance to snow and getting nothing is less than ideal.  In any event, maybe more posters who have actually seen measureable snow can keep putting up snapshots of OP runs at range showing deep reds of over north america. That is the truly helpful stuff. 

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The beginning of the advertised pattern change on the extended products is evident at the very end of the latest ens runs. The NPJ is forecast to be (too) extended for the last week of the month, but around NYE there is some retraction that relocates the exit region, so the GoA trough retrogrades while a downstream h5 ridge starts to redevelop. The jet configuration has been shifting, so its hard to say how stable this will be. In general a retracted jet is favored in a Nina, but with the weak nature of it(and tropical forcing) who knows. When it retracts too far westward the characteristic Nina NPAC ridge develops.

1735603200-AZGyhT60pCI.png

 

I can invision a scenario like yesterday happening in January but we get a region wide 3 - 5 " snow out of it with Cold air entrenched.

Snow to mix to dry slot.

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5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

The bolded is the bottom line. For a lot of us, we have had bupkis so far. On top of many years of...the same.  Watching weeks go by where in theory it might have had a chance to snow and getting nothing is less than ideal.  In any event, maybe more posters who have actually seen measureable snow can keep putting up snapshots of OP runs at range showing deep reds of over north america. That is the truly helpful stuff. 

Cold and dry-ish Niña periods are pretty normal historically. But yes, since BN periods are getting less frequent, it does hurt to let one go by without measurable snow to show for it. Even if it is December when we struggle to get much normally. 

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Just now, Chris78 said:

I can invision a scenario like yesterday happening in January but we get a region wide 3 - 5 " snow out of it with Cold air entrenched.

Snow to mix to dry slot.

If the storm yesterday was 12 hours faster, most of the area gets 1-3/2-4”.

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11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs says keep it moving 

Icon and GGEM both took a good step. Hard to imagine we get snow from the coastal, but I’m hoping we can get some snow from the primary before it loses its punch. Need some more south trends, but 12z moving that way.

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Cold and dry-ish Niña periods are pretty normal historically. But yes, since BN periods are getting less frequent, it does hurt to let one go by without measurable snow to show for it. Even if it is December when we struggle to get much normally. 

Because temps are almost always a problem now, we tend to simply focus on getting cold...but if you look back at historical records it might shock people to see how many below normal temp months had little to no snowfall around here.  

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Because temps are almost always a problem now, we tend to simply focus on getting cold...but if you look back at historical records it might shock people to see how many below normal temp months had little to no snowfall around here.  

I always see pictures of the frozen bay back in the 70's. Never any snow on the ground. Just cold and dry. 

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