December Medium/ Long Range

[CAPE]

  On 12/16/2024 at 2:46 PM, WxUSAF said:

Friday snow chances are not dead btw. 6z EPS is a pretty decent look for D4-5 with an earlier transfer off hatteras. Euro AI also a better 6z run. 

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Just looked. Somewhat interesting.

[Terpeast]

  On 12/16/2024 at 2:57 PM, CAPE said:

Just looked. Somewhat interesting.

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Looks like coastal areas might have a better shot at something. Delmarva/coastal NJ, LI, etc. 

Very low expectations west of I-95 other than maybe some snow showers/snow TV

[NorthArlington101]

  On 12/16/2024 at 2:57 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

There are some Miller B SECS-y looks that would make us mad, but definitely a vast improvement from the ens runs I’d been checking yesterday. More of a shot at something legitimate than it seems. 

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[WxUSAF]

  On 12/16/2024 at 3:02 PM, Terpeast said:

Looks like coastal areas might have a better shot at something. Delmarva/coastal NJ, LI, etc. 

Very low expectations west of I-95 other than maybe some snow showers/snow TV

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I’m not greedy. Just want some festive snow on my Xmas lights. We’re going to have a BN December. That alone seems amazing. Would be nice to have more than a T of snow out of it.

[mattie g]

  On 12/16/2024 at 3:27 PM, WxUSAF said:

I’m not greedy. Just want some festive snow on my Xmas lights. We’re going to have a BN December. That alone seems amazing. Would be nice to have more than a T of snow out of it.

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We got that one quick evening snow shower 10 days or so ago, which looked really nice as it fell on the lights. No accumulation, but I'll take anything at this point. I'd kill for even .25" of slush to make the house look truly festive!

The below normal December is pretty amazing. Frustrating...but amazing.

[North Balti Zen]

  On 12/16/2024 at 3:27 PM, WxUSAF said:

I’m not greedy. Just want some festive snow on my Xmas lights. We’re going to have a BN December. That alone seems amazing. Would be nice to have more than a T of snow out of it.

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The bolded is the bottom line. For a lot of us, we have had bupkis so far. On top of many years of...the same.  Watching weeks go by where in theory it might have had a chance to snow and getting nothing is less than ideal.  In any event, maybe more posters who have actually seen measureable snow can keep putting up snapshots of OP runs at range showing deep reds of over north america. That is the truly helpful stuff. 

[Chris78]

  On 12/16/2024 at 2:40 PM, CAPE said:

The beginning of the advertised pattern change on the extended products is evident at the very end of the latest ens runs. The NPJ is forecast to be (too) extended for the last week of the month, but around NYE there is some retraction that relocates the exit region, so the GoA trough retrogrades while a downstream h5 ridge starts to redevelop. The jet configuration has been shifting, so its hard to say how stable this will be. In general a retracted jet is favored in a Nina, but with the weak nature of it(and tropical forcing) who knows. When it retracts too far westward the characteristic Nina NPAC ridge develops.

 

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I can invision a scenario like yesterday happening in January but we get a region wide 3 - 5 " snow out of it with Cold air entrenched.

Snow to mix to dry slot.

[WxUSAF]

  On 12/16/2024 at 3:49 PM, North Balti Zen said:

The bolded is the bottom line. For a lot of us, we have had bupkis so far. On top of many years of...the same.  Watching weeks go by where in theory it might have had a chance to snow and getting nothing is less than ideal.  In any event, maybe more posters who have actually seen measureable snow can keep putting up snapshots of OP runs at range showing deep reds of over north america. That is the truly helpful stuff. 

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Cold and dry-ish Niña periods are pretty normal historically. But yes, since BN periods are getting less frequent, it does hurt to let one go by without measurable snow to show for it. Even if it is December when we struggle to get much normally. 

[WxUSAF]

  On 12/16/2024 at 3:55 PM, Chris78 said:

I can invision a scenario like yesterday happening in January but we get a region wide 3 - 5 " snow out of it with Cold air entrenched.

Snow to mix to dry slot.

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If the storm yesterday was 12 hours faster, most of the area gets 1-3/2-4”.

[TSSN+]

Gfs says keep it moving 

[soadforecasterx]

CMC is close, looks like there is till a tiny bit of hope left for a storm. 

[WxUSAF]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:07 PM, TSSN+ said:

Gfs says keep it moving 

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Icon and GGEM both took a good step. Hard to imagine we get snow from the coastal, but I’m hoping we can get some snow from the primary before it loses its punch. Need some more south trends, but 12z moving that way.

[Shad]

how much stock do we put in the Euro AI?  its quite bullish

[soadforecasterx]

seems like we need that trailing vort to slow down if we want any chance. 

[NorthArlington101]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:22 PM, Shad said:

how much stock do we put in the Euro AI?  its quite bullish

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It’s supposed to be “better” - especially at the surface. 

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/178/news/aifs-new-ecmwf-forecasting-system

[bncho]

Man—the tension I’ve seen throughout this whole website is wild. Getting an area-wide 1-3” of snow would be the equivalent of achieving world peace.

[JenkinsJinkies]

They're announcing last rites for January on the New England board, massive pac puke wave on the way.

[T. August]

GEFS mean did improve at 12z. Precip is in NC vs offshore. EPS good for New England, which means I’m splitting the difference and saying we are in the bullseye 

[soadforecasterx]

[bncho]

  On 12/16/2024 at 5:08 PM, soadforecasterx said:

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I’ll take the more western trough.

[psuhoffman]

  On 12/16/2024 at 3:56 PM, WxUSAF said:

Cold and dry-ish Niña periods are pretty normal historically. But yes, since BN periods are getting less frequent, it does hurt to let one go by without measurable snow to show for it. Even if it is December when we struggle to get much normally. 

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Because temps are almost always a problem now, we tend to simply focus on getting cold...but if you look back at historical records it might shock people to see how many below normal temp months had little to no snowfall around here.  

[dailylurker]

  On 12/16/2024 at 5:13 PM, psuhoffman said:

Because temps are almost always a problem now, we tend to simply focus on getting cold...but if you look back at historical records it might shock people to see how many below normal temp months had little to no snowfall around here.  

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I always see pictures of the frozen bay back in the 70's. Never any snow on the ground. Just cold and dry. 

[Mikeymac5306]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:57 PM, bncho said:

Man—the tension I’ve seen throughout this whole website is wild. Getting an area-wide 1-3” of snow would be the equivalent of achieving world peace.

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[JenkinsJinkies]

Capital Weather Gang now thinks that December will be warmer than normal overall.

[87storms]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:57 PM, bncho said:

Man—the tension I’ve seen throughout this whole website is wild. Getting an area-wide 1-3” of snow would be the equivalent of achieving world peace.

You must be new here.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

EURO AI actually looks pretty interesting for Friday, of course it's too warm though.  But perhaps if we get a little deeper low we can also get a little cooler temps.

[IronTy]

  On 12/16/2024 at 3:49 PM, North Balti Zen said:

The bolded is the bottom line. For a lot of us, we have had bupkis so far. On top of many years of...the same.  Watching weeks go by where in theory it might have had a chance to snow and getting nothing is less than ideal.  In any event, maybe more posters who have actually seen measureable snow can keep putting up snapshots of OP runs at range showing deep reds of over north america. That is the truly helpful stuff. 

One step closer...

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[Paleocene]

Well, looks like a temperature-appropriate christmas is maybe in the cards? That would be nice

[NorthArlington101]

Guessing people won’t be shocked to learn the 12z EPS was a step back - lost a lot of the interested members. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

  On 12/16/2024 at 6:21 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

Guessing people won’t be shocked to learn the 12z EPS was a step back - lost a lot of the interested members. 

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I mean if New England is capitulating then it's going to be bad here too.