CAPE Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 The last few runs of the Euro weeklies are depicting an increasingly colder look for early to mid January. GFSX and CMC weeklies are advertising the same general h5 look for the first half of Jan. All 3 are hinting at +heights building into the NAO space. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 On 12/4/2024 at 6:10 AM, Benjamn3 said: Do we shit the blinds for Xmas week yet? It’s a yearly tradition ya know. yes...yes we do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 The beginning of the advertised pattern change on the extended products is evident at the very end of the latest ens runs. The NPJ is forecast to be (too) extended for the last week of the month, but around NYE there is some retraction that relocates the exit region, so the GoA trough retrogrades while a downstream h5 ridge starts to redevelop. The jet configuration has been shifting, so its hard to say how stable this will be. In general a retracted jet is favored in a Nina, but with the weak nature of it(and tropical forcing) who knows. When it retracts too far westward the characteristic Nina NPAC ridge develops. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 Friday snow chances are not dead btw. 6z EPS is a pretty decent look for D4-5 with an earlier transfer off hatteras. Euro AI also a better 6z run. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Friday snow chances are not dead btw. 6z EPS is a pretty decent look for D4-5 with an earlier transfer off hatteras. Euro AI also a better 6z run. Gfs has been consistent in advertising at least some flurries areawide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Friday snow chances are not dead btw. 6z EPS is a pretty decent look for D4-5 with an earlier transfer off hatteras. Euro AI also a better 6z run. There are some Miller B SECS-y looks that would make us mad, but definitely a vast improvement from the ens runs I’d been checking yesterday. More of a shot at something legitimate than it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Friday snow chances are not dead btw. 6z EPS is a pretty decent look for D4-5 with an earlier transfer off hatteras. Euro AI also a better 6z run. Just looked. Somewhat interesting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 16 Author Share Posted December 16 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Just looked. Somewhat interesting. Looks like coastal areas might have a better shot at something. Delmarva/coastal NJ, LI, etc. Very low expectations west of I-95 other than maybe some snow showers/snow TV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: There are some Miller B SECS-y looks that would make us mad, but definitely a vast improvement from the ens runs I’d been checking yesterday. More of a shot at something legitimate than it seems. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 24 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Looks like coastal areas might have a better shot at something. Delmarva/coastal NJ, LI, etc. Very low expectations west of I-95 other than maybe some snow showers/snow TV I’m not greedy. Just want some festive snow on my Xmas lights. We’re going to have a BN December. That alone seems amazing. Would be nice to have more than a T of snow out of it. 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m not greedy. Just want some festive snow on my Xmas lights. We’re going to have a BN December. That alone seems amazing. Would be nice to have more than a T of snow out of it. We got that one quick evening snow shower 10 days or so ago, which looked really nice as it fell on the lights. No accumulation, but I'll take anything at this point. I'd kill for even .25" of slush to make the house look truly festive! The below normal December is pretty amazing. Frustrating...but amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’m not greedy. Just want some festive snow on my Xmas lights. We’re going to have a BN December. That alone seems amazing. Would be nice to have more than a T of snow out of it. The bolded is the bottom line. For a lot of us, we have had bupkis so far. On top of many years of...the same. Watching weeks go by where in theory it might have had a chance to snow and getting nothing is less than ideal. In any event, maybe more posters who have actually seen measureable snow can keep putting up snapshots of OP runs at range showing deep reds of over north america. That is the truly helpful stuff. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 1 hour ago, CAPE said: The beginning of the advertised pattern change on the extended products is evident at the very end of the latest ens runs. The NPJ is forecast to be (too) extended for the last week of the month, but around NYE there is some retraction that relocates the exit region, so the GoA trough retrogrades while a downstream h5 ridge starts to redevelop. The jet configuration has been shifting, so its hard to say how stable this will be. In general a retracted jet is favored in a Nina, but with the weak nature of it(and tropical forcing) who knows. When it retracts too far westward the characteristic Nina NPAC ridge develops. I can invision a scenario like yesterday happening in January but we get a region wide 3 - 5 " snow out of it with Cold air entrenched. Snow to mix to dry slot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: The bolded is the bottom line. For a lot of us, we have had bupkis so far. On top of many years of...the same. Watching weeks go by where in theory it might have had a chance to snow and getting nothing is less than ideal. In any event, maybe more posters who have actually seen measureable snow can keep putting up snapshots of OP runs at range showing deep reds of over north america. That is the truly helpful stuff. Cold and dry-ish Niña periods are pretty normal historically. But yes, since BN periods are getting less frequent, it does hurt to let one go by without measurable snow to show for it. Even if it is December when we struggle to get much normally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 Just now, Chris78 said: I can invision a scenario like yesterday happening in January but we get a region wide 3 - 5 " snow out of it with Cold air entrenched. Snow to mix to dry slot. If the storm yesterday was 12 hours faster, most of the area gets 1-3/2-4”. 5 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 Gfs says keep it moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 CMC is close, looks like there is till a tiny bit of hope left for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Gfs says keep it moving Icon and GGEM both took a good step. Hard to imagine we get snow from the coastal, but I’m hoping we can get some snow from the primary before it loses its punch. Need some more south trends, but 12z moving that way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 how much stock do we put in the Euro AI? its quite bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 seems like we need that trailing vort to slow down if we want any chance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 29 minutes ago, Shad said: how much stock do we put in the Euro AI? its quite bullish It’s supposed to be “better” - especially at the surface. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/178/news/aifs-new-ecmwf-forecasting-system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 Man—the tension I’ve seen throughout this whole website is wild. Getting an area-wide 1-3” of snow would be the equivalent of achieving world peace. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 They're announcing last rites for January on the New England board, massive pac puke wave on the way. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 GEFS mean did improve at 12z. Precip is in NC vs offshore. EPS good for New England, which means I’m splitting the difference and saying we are in the bullseye 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 Just now, soadforecasterx said: I’ll take the more western trough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Cold and dry-ish Niña periods are pretty normal historically. But yes, since BN periods are getting less frequent, it does hurt to let one go by without measurable snow to show for it. Even if it is December when we struggle to get much normally. Because temps are almost always a problem now, we tend to simply focus on getting cold...but if you look back at historical records it might shock people to see how many below normal temp months had little to no snowfall around here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Because temps are almost always a problem now, we tend to simply focus on getting cold...but if you look back at historical records it might shock people to see how many below normal temp months had little to no snowfall around here. I always see pictures of the frozen bay back in the 70's. Never any snow on the ground. Just cold and dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 23 minutes ago, bncho said: Man—the tension I’ve seen throughout this whole website is wild. Getting an area-wide 1-3” of snow would be the equivalent of achieving world peace. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 Capital Weather Gang now thinks that December will be warmer than normal overall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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