Weather Will Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I’m just stating probabilities based on past results in comparable situations. There can be flukes within the normal variance. We have to hope for such a fluke. Because the probabilities are not in our favor this year. That’s all. PSU, you are very smart, and your analysis is solid, and unfortunately probably going to end up being correct, but your relentless, repetitive, passive aggressive pessimism is a downer. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 44 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: I understand modeling is better than it used to be I been into this weather science since the blizzard of 79!! But. Modeling still don't even get a handle on stuff till it's sometimes within 48 hours . So. Jumping off a cliff cause of long range modeling weeks out is just plain stupid lol Our fate isn’t determined until inside 48 hours but this isn’t a both ways thing. There are way more permutations that result in no snow than snow for us. And because we are hyper vigilant pouring over ensembles and every obscure model run if there is a “threat” we will see it usually pretty far out. We won’t know the outcome of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 Don’t hate the setup on the GGEM leading into Xmas… 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 Don't think the Euro run is gonna look great with a far flatter western ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Don't think the Euro run is gonna look great with a far flatter western ridge Shocking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 3 hours ago, winter_warlock said: People are so bipolar in here when they see long range modeling lol.. I mean I can see why people get that way I mean long range modeling is soooo accurate lmaoooooo. You people are too much.. you'd think you never tracked storms or didn't know the models suck... i mean come on people is this ur first time here??? Trusting Modeling weeks out is like trusting my ex not to cheat lol. U people are sad!!! Every 6 hours the mood changes that change with model changes are unreal in here !! Lol people that day omg winters over in December musta been the kind of kids who quit playing games and fo home when they are losing OMG Speaking badly about models and departing group adulation? Thank the Lord NHC does not present 30 different outcomes every 12 hours. From Daytona to Galveston ground zero. Need some more fact and outcome based discussions and pressure to bring about changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Our fate isn’t determined until inside 48 hours but this isn’t a both ways thing. There are way more permutations that result in no snow than snow for us. And because we are hyper vigilant pouring over ensembles and every obscure model run if there is a “threat” we will see it usually pretty far out. We won’t know the outcome of course. I agree but saying winters over in December is just whiney lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: OMG Speaking badly about models and departing group adulation? Thank the Lord NHC does not present 30 different outcomes every 12 hours. From Daytona to Galveston ground zero. Need some more fact and outcome based discussions and pressure to bring about changes. Respectfully how is that a fair comparison. NHC doesn’t even put out a long range hurricane track. The official cone only goes to day 5 and sometimes it’s pretty wide at day 5. We just don’t have the ability to be that accurate at those ranges. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 6 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: I agree but saying winters over in December is just whiney lol Other than Ji who said winter’s over? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Respectfully how is that a fair comparison. NHC doesn’t even put out a long range hurricane track. The official cone only goes to day 5 and sometimes it’s pretty wide at day 5. We just don’t have the ability to be that accurate at those ranges. Self appointed comments corrector 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Self appointed comments corrector No it’s called dialogue. We have different points of view but the discussion doesn’t have to be hostile. I asked a legitimate good faith question. I’m not trying to trick you or trap you. But in honesty don’t see how a short range day 1-5 hurricane track and trying to predict long range day 10-15 or even longer patterns is a good comp. You could explain your point of view. That’s how a discussion works. You don’t have to take every comment I make as if it’s some attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Other than Ji who said winter’s over? Hmmm good point.. Ji is probably the only one but he says it alot lol seems like more lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 3 hours ago, 87storms said: One of the bigger issues, at least in the 95 corridor, the last 10-15 years has been the lack of December snow. We used to be able to wet our palette's with at least a close in 'burbs storm or two early in the season, but if you look at DCA stats there hasn't been a 2"+ snowfall since 2011...which is pretty bad and fully supports the idea that we're losing snow on the margins. I guess the question is whether it's a decadal pattern issue or a long-term trend. I'm a native Washingtonian and December has never been a snow month here in DC. Maybe different in other people's neck of the woods. Our window usually is Jan-Feb (and at times March). So when people talk about a white Christmas I assume it's somewhere else in the area (like 100 miles or more). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Other than Ji who said winter’s over? Me, as usual. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 EPS seems to like 25/26th more than 21/22 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 42 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Me, as usual. I'm not that far behind. We're simply not good at snow anymore and that's just the reality of the situation. Hoping we can at least have something to track soon. That would be a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 31 minutes ago, Ji said: EPS seems to like 25/26th more than 21/22 It’s almost as if the can keeps getting kicked. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 WB 12Z EPS....at least it is looking cold leading up to Christmas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 14 Author Share Posted December 14 33 minutes ago, Ji said: EPS seems to like 25/26th more than 21/22 I don’t see that. 25/26 is more likely to cut n/w. Or maybe I just haven’t seen the new run yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 Just now, osfan24 said: It’s almost as if the can keeps getting kicked. It does look kind of enticing, though. Pretty stout HP nearby on both of the spotlight models. Precip is generally easier than cold here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 I don’t see that. 25/26 is more likely to cut n/w. Or maybe I just haven’t seen the new run yetMy snowfall chart just seemed to have more hits in that window than 21-22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 14 Author Share Posted December 14 1 minute ago, Ji said: My snowfall chart just seemed to have more hits in that window than 21-22 Pretty underwhelming 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 15 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It’s almost as if the can keeps getting kicked. No. The 25th time period was there for awhile with a second PNA spike. Just never shown much storm wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 Pretty underwhelming Sad gray chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 14 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Pretty underwhelming Even when it has 20” showing it is usually wrong anyway so whatever haha. Really just got to wait for something to pop up under day 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 14 Author Share Posted December 14 5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Even when it has 20” showing it is usually wrong anyway so whatever haha. Really just got to wait for something to pop up under day 5 Kinda like last January. Twice. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 19 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Kinda like last January. Twice. Ya idk how many times I’ve been in loads of snow from those charts and I end up with dirt lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 43 minutes ago, Ji said: My snowfall chart just seemed to have more hits in that window than 21-22 The best snow is east. Charter a boat and drop anchor. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 Today's edition of the weeklies looks even colder for early Jan. Time a wave or 2 and we defeat historical weak Nino snow climo. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 That's the look we want in a Nina- shortwave energy can drop southward further west and have space to develop a surface low to our SW, instead of what we have now/over the next 10 days which is probably too far east. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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