December Medium/ Long Range

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not yet but I don’t like what I see and if I had to bet if I bust high or low on snow I’d bet high. But there is still a way out. The AO isn’t quite as uncooperative right now as it was those two years. The reason for my early emphatic calls those years was if you get to Xmas and see a strongly positive AO combined with a strong central pac ridge and a pac torch encompassing the continent history says it’s game over. That combo never ends well.  Never. It’s too stable, supported by multiple factors, and takes too long to break down to save winter. By new years you can call it when you see that. It’s ova. 
 

There is still a way out this year. The pac ridge and AO are not as hostile. That pattern is ugly and would take weeks to recover but it could recover. The problem is history says our best chance of snow is actually December and early January. So if we get to Xmas and are staring a never ending pac puke torch in the face were probably in big trouble. 

I think we have one more shot at a wintry period sometime in Jan. Both ensembles have an EPAC WWB at the end of this month, and we’ll be crossing over into MJO 7 around the same time, and potentially 8 by mid-Jan. If the ensembles are correct about these, we should get a shot at some snow. Better than now because MC forcing wouldn’t be as unfavorable as it is now. 

But if we don’t produce in that next shot, we’re looking at another ratter because by Feb, the MJO probably is done with 8-1-2 or just reloads at 4.

I was also thinking that this is a one-and-done winter where we get one decent snowfall and then that’s it. If we do get that shot. 

[CAPE]

The extended products continue to advertise significant weakening/retrogression of the Nino-like NPAC trough by early Jan, to be replaced with +heights near the GoA and an EPO ridge, which is more of a Nina look. That should at least allow for continued cold shots, but without help in the NA wave timing will be critical to give us some shots at snow. We have had the cold, but with the progressive pattern it's been cold/dry followed by milder periods with precip, then more cold/dry.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The extended products continue to advertise significant weakening/retrogression of the Nino-like NPAC trough by early Jan, to be replaced with +heights near the GoA and an EPO ridge, which is more of a Nina look. That should at least allow for continued cold shots, but without help in the NA wave timing will be critical to give us some shots at snow. We have had the cold, but with the progressive pattern it's been cold/dry followed by milder periods with precip.

We might get a shot sometime in January but we have a tight window because Nina climo says that trough will retrograde as the month goes on and by late January the SER will take over and it’s pretty much game over.  It’s really bad luck that we got a Nino lag in December when Nina climo would be better and now are transitioning to a Nina pattern right as that forcing becomes hostile!  We got the worst of both worlds  

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

 

I was also thinking that this is a one-and-done winter where we get one decent snowfall and then that’s it. If we do get that shot. 

This was also my wag a while back over in the other sub I post at. Quiet thru early Jan then a one-off sorta 2016, tho probably not that extreme a storm, but one decent hit then a wrap.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

We might get a shot sometime in January but we have a tight window because Nino climo says that trough will retrograde as the month goes on and by late January the SER will take over and it’s pretty much game over.  It’s really bad luck that we got a Nino lag in December when Nina climo would be better and now are transitioning to a Nina pattern right as that forcing becomes hostile!  We got the worst of both worlds  

 

In the end, just have to see how it plays out. If the -EPO is persistent there should still be chances into Feb. The SER can be flattened at times, and maybe we get lucky with a wave or 2 moving along the boundary. A couple moderate events would be a major victory in a weak Nina winter.

[North Balti Zen]

Quote

The problem is history says our best chance of snow is actually December and early January. 

wtaf. no, that is not right. 

[winter_warlock]

People are so bipolar in here when they see long range modeling lol.. I mean I can see why people get that way I mean long range modeling is soooo accurate   lmaoooooo. You people are too much.. you'd think you never tracked storms or  didn't know the models suck...  i mean come on people is this ur first time here???    Trusting Modeling weeks out  is like trusting my ex not to cheat lol.    U people are sad!!! Every 6 hours  the mood changes that change with model changes are unreal in here !! Lol   people that day omg winters over in December  musta  been the kind of kids who  quit playing games and fo home when they are losing lol 

[IronTy]

Well my geraniums are still hanging on, I guess if they can make it another couple weeks then I'll have at least saved some money and effort come spring not having to plant new ones.  

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

wtaf. no, that is not right. 

In a weak cold enso, yes. Jan 15 on is a torch in most weak cold enso years. 

[CAPE]

29 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

wtaf. no, that is not right. 

He is referring to Nina climo. Early Jan has had some nice hits for the MA in recent Nina winters. The whole month of Jan 2022 into early Feb was about as good as it gets in a Nina for a good chunk of the region.

Not sure about December overall, but there was that one storm that no one here mentions.. eastern areas did pretty good.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

In a weak cold enso, yes. Jan 15 on is a torch in most weak cold enso years. 

The problem is this is really our closest thing to a neutral ENSO following a Nino in 40 years outside of 92-93 and 03-04 and I'd almost label those warm neutral.  You have to go back to 80-81 I think to see the closest thing to this year of cold neutral following a Nino so I am not sure if Jan/Feb progress as we'd expect

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

People are so bipolar in here when they see long range modeling lol.. I mean I can see why people get that way I mean long range modeling is soooo accurate   lmaoooooo. You people are too much.. you'd think you never tracked storms or  didn't know the models suck...  i mean come on people is this ur first time here???    Trusting Modeling weeks out  is like trusting my ex not to cheat lol.    U people are sad!!! Every 6 hours  the mood changes that change with model changes are unreal in here !! Lol   people that day omg winters over in December  musta  been the kind of kids who  quit playing games and fo home when they are losing lol 

The discussion seems pretty grounded to me. Yes the models are a part but I’ve seen references to tropical forcing, climo, analogs and the long wave teleconnections. 
 

What part of the analysis do you disagree with?  How should the long range discussion be different?  

[psuhoffman]

I’m just stating probabilities based on past results in comparable situations.  There can be flukes within the normal variance. We have to hope for such a fluke. Because the probabilities are not in our favor this year. That’s all. 

[Heisy]

People are so bipolar in here when they see long range modeling lol.. I mean I can see why people get that way I mean long range modeling is soooo accurate   lmaoooooo. You people are too much.. you'd think you never tracked storms or  didn't know the models suck...  i mean come on people is this ur first time here???    Trusting Modeling weeks out  is like trusting my ex not to cheat lol.    U people are sad!!! Every 6 hours  the mood changes that change with model changes are unreal in here !! Lol   people that day omg winters over in December  musta  been the kind of kids who  quit playing games and fo home when they are losing lol 

Been in this hobby for over 20 years. I’m 38, I was staying up the MRF, AVN, NGM model when I was high school lol. Models have gotten a lot better. Yeah if we’re talking about specifics yeah sure at this range it’s useless, but with today’s advancements we generally have a good idea if a winter storm is possible by day 7-8. We don’t see winter storms pop up out of no where like they did in the 2000s Last nights trend with the western ridge position etc favor a late blooming miller B. Euro AI has been fairly consistent showing that in its last few runs. Inverted trough/light snow certainly possibile, but that’s something that we won’t know until we get closer.

Most, not all, but a lot of us are chasing the big dog. Big dogs usually show themselves by day 7.


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[Heisy]

12z icon looks very similar to 6z euro Ai

Ridge position just unfortunately too far east. The shortwave does want to turn the corner, it’s just doing so too far east for us to get impacted outside inverted trough





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[87storms]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

In a weak cold enso, yes. Jan 15 on is a torch in most weak cold enso years. 

One of the bigger issues, at least in the 95 corridor, the last 10-15 years has been the lack of December snow.  We used to be able to wet our palette's with at least a close in 'burbs storm or two early in the season, but if you look at DCA stats there hasn't been a 2"+ snowfall since 2011...which is pretty bad and fully supports the idea that we're losing snow on the margins.  I guess the question is whether it's a decadal pattern issue or a long-term trend.

[winter_warlock]

25 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Been in this hobby for over 20 years. I’m 38, I was staying up the MRF, AVN, NGM model when I was high school lol. Models have gotten a lot better. Yeah if we’re talking about specifics yeah sure at this range it’s useless, but with today’s advancements we generally have a good idea if a winter storm is possible by day 7-8. We don’t see winter storms pop up out of no where like they did in the 2000s Last nights trend with the western ridge position etc favor a late blooming miller B. Euro AI has been fairly consistent showing that in its last few runs. Inverted trough/light snow certainly possibile, but that’s something that we won’t know until we get closer.

Most, not all, but a lot of us are chasing the big dog. Big dogs usually show themselves by day 7.


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I understand modeling is better than it used to be I been into this weather science since the blizzard of 79!! But.   Modeling still don't even get a handle on stuff till it's sometimes  within 48 hours . So.  Jumping off a cliff cause of long range modeling weeks out is just plain stupid lol

[SnowenOutThere]

12z GFS with a different evolution for next weekend's timeframe out west. May actually favor us if the NS can dig father south. 

[Heisy]

Solid improvements on the GFS, shortwave digging faster…


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[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Solid improvements on the GFS, shortwave digging faster…


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Is that vort in new England going to move into the 50/50?

[Ji]

The run to run changes in the gfs is wild bro

[yoda]

I don't mind this 12z GFS run.  There was more to like.  Will anything come of it, probably not, but this was a few steps in the right direction to get something IMHO 

[psuhoffman]

It’s a better progression for us. Our best chance is if this evolves into more of a boundary wave than an amplified cut off. The trough is digging too far east and not deep enough for that to work here. We could get a smaller snow from a boundary wave though.  

[Heisy]

Ridge rolls over too fast, we get some light stuff, but this evolution at least has a better shot at something vs the 00z/6z evolutions


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[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

I don't mind this 12z GFS run.  There was more to like.  Will anything come of it, probably not, but this was a few steps in the right direction to get something IMHO 

That may have just been one of the most convoluted ways I've seen us get snow on this run, but hey we got snow!

[Heisy]

CMC also looks better,




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[SnowenOutThere]

Canadian may also be cooking up a good run right now

[WxUSAF]

Yeah gfs and GGEM both closer to something workable 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah gfs and GGEM both closer to something workable 

A simple 1-3/2-4 would be sufficient 

[brooklynwx99]

much stronger second vort on the GFS/CMC. much easier to amplify a system into cold air rather than hope for a cutter in a shit airmass to weaken. that never happens lmao

also an easier way to get a storm compared to the 12/18z GFS yesterday where the entire TPV buckled