winter_warlock Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Below normal temps in next 2 weeks 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 8 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: I know. Trop tidbits is free lol So is Pivotal Weather and it is faster than TT 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 WB 18Z NBM, now goes through Christmas Eve. Quick and dirty way to watch for any snow trends. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 I know. Trop tidbits is free lolSo there’s two waves, one on the 18-19th and then the follow up wave (the one the GFS blew up today and yesterday). We need spacing issues to resolve and models to really key on that second wave. Over the next 2 days I’d really like to see some other models jump on wave 2 idea. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 5 hours ago, winter_warlock said: Awesome but weird IMO.. Looks at lot like Nov 1950, maybe 75 miles east though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Swing and a miss on 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Here comes gfs with another run sponsored by medical mushrooms. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 18z GFS would be annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Swing and a miss on 18z GFS Not exactly. Just a odd solution but it has potential with that vort. Still snows in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChillinIt Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 NE MD Pummeled!!!! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Not exactly. Just a odd solution but it has potential with that vort. Still snows in the area NE Maryland, pummeled! LOL! This solution was nice. I would enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Euro AI was more of a late blooming miller B. 18z gfs likely a step towards a more realistic solution like that. The 12z H5 run as absurd. 1/10000 type look. It’s a Miller b setup, we know how these go…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: Euro AI was more of a late blooming miller B. 18z gfs likely a step towards a more realistic solution like that. The 12z H5 run as absurd. 1/10000 type look. It’s a Miller b setup, we know how these go… . We don’t know how anything goes at 196hrs. For all we know storm could move 500 miles north or south in the next 1-2 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Another wacky solution from the GFS at HH. Plenty of cold coming in from the NW with the amped western ridge and digging shortwave energy, but the Gulf is closed for business. Baroclinic boundary is pushed offshore where the low develops, and the moisture feed comes from the Atlantic- part of our region just gets in on it this run via an inverted trough(that always works lol). This sort of evolution would favor places further NE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 2 hours ago, winter_warlock said: Below normal temps in next 2 weeks If this verifies, both the GEFS extended and Weeklies were incorrect 3 weeks ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Another wacky solution from the GFS at HH. Plenty of cold coming in from the NW with the amped western ridge and digging shortwave energy, but the Gulf is closed for business. Baroclinic boundary is pushed offshore where the low develops, and the moisture feed comes from the Atlantic- part of our region just gets in on it this run via an inverted trough(that always works lol). This sort of evolution would favor places further NE. When the "Gulf is closed for business" that is not good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 We don’t know how anything goes at 196hrs. For all we know storm could move 500 miles north or south in the next 1-2 days Right, but as cape just alluded this overall setup favors NE. We’ll see how it goes, just making an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 The spacing looked better to me than 12z. The dive out of Can was just a bit further east and did not dig as much. Subtle variations to the ridge out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 The advertised h5 pattern is amplified and progressive. We can get the southward dig with NS energy in this setup. With no help in the NA however (+NAO), the tendency will be for later/offshore development as cold comes southeastward with any significant shortwave energy. Probably need a little more luck than usual with wave timing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Some snowflakes in the air and cold for Christmas are all good to me! If it can be more... cool! I will watch and hope, but I will not count on anything! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 Happy hour is fun but that has “last 48 hour heartbreak” written all over it. Would be nice if we could get a solution like the 12z euro from yesterday. Simple easy 3-6”. eta…gfs kinda leaves some energy along the front late Thursday and flips us to white rain. If that front wave can amp up more and also get more trailing energy, that could turn into something. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 18z RGEM with a pretty nice 2-4 thump out here on Sunday. I81 special. But we would take it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13 Share Posted December 13 26 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 18z RGEM with a pretty nice 2-4 thump out here on Sunday. I81 special. But we would take it. If you or anyone else want a thread for this, I’d say go for it. Only 48 hours out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 The 18z GFS says the DROUGHT continues thru December 29 with no real relief in sight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 1 hour ago, CAPE said: The advertised h5 pattern is amplified and progressive. We can get the southward dig with NS energy in this setup. With no help in the NA however (+NAO), the tendency will be for later/offshore development as cold comes southeastward with any significant shortwave energy. Probably need a little more luck than usual with wave timing. HH GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 2 hours ago, rjvanals said: 18z GFS would be annoying Looks a lot like a typical cold enso HECS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 2 hours ago, rjvanals said: 18z GFS would be annoying On brand for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: On brand for this area. Just so everyone knows I'm not just being a deb... there have been 35 NESIS events during a -ENSO including cold neutrals since 2000. And full discloser I did include 2014 in this, even though you all know how much of an outlier I think that season was...if I excluded it these numbers would be a LOT worse! Of the 35 NESIS events the average snowfall at BWI was 2.8" 71% were 3" or less 29% were 4" 17% were 6" 9% were 10" The max was 15" By far the highest probability of how an NESIS level storm will affect our area during a cold enso is with less than 4" of snow and that its VERY likely the heavy snow will miss us to the north or east. That is just the probabilities based on the records. I am NOT saying it cannot snow or that we can't get a good snowstorm, just that the odds are against it and so I am not getting my hopes up by long range HECS type setups because history says those storms are very likely to miss us. Just for comparison there have been 25 NESIS events in warm enso years since 2000 The avg at BWI is 7.4" only 40% were less than 4" 60% were 4" plus 44% were 6" plus 20% were 10" plus The max was 29" My advice is in a cold enso when we are tracking a major snowstorm at range...expect it to miss us to the north or east and to get a very minor event because that is what the probabilities say are by far the greatest odds...then be happy if it turns out to be the very rare fluke where we get a major event. Even in a warm enso our odds from range at a major threat being a BIG snow are below 50% but they are over double the chances in a cold enso. 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 Cool story, bro. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 14 Share Posted December 14 Informative post, psu. I do think you underestimate how many people just want to see accumulating snow at this point, HECS or not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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