December Medium/ Long Range

[SnowLover22]

PDO trending upwards the first half of December. @psuhoffman what is your target value out of curosity.

 

If I am understanding the PDO correctly, the general "trough pattern" over the North Western Pacific Ocean that has been ongoing and forecast on the models should act to continue to help cause the PDO Index to rise. 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

20 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

PDO trending upwards the first half of December. @psuhoffman what is your target value out of curosity.

 

If I am understanding the PDO correctly, the general "trough pattern" over the North Western Pacific Ocean that has been ongoing and forecast on the models should act to continue to help cause the PDO Index to rise. 

 

Let's get this thing outright positive for a bit.

[clskinsfan]

Yeah. I am kind of digging late Dec into Mid January. Looks cold at least. We will see what happens from there as far as precip goes. But this winter will not be a shut out mess. At least from what my worthless eyes are seeing. 

[SnowLover22]

1 hour ago, SnowLover22 said:

PDO trending upwards the first half of December. @psuhoffman what is your target value out of curosity.

 

If I am understanding the PDO correctly, the general "trough pattern" over the North Western Pacific Ocean that has been ongoing and forecast on the models should act to continue to help cause the PDO Index to rise. 

 

Credit to @brooklynwx99

A visual representing the change in that chart.

 

SSTA Change

 

[Eskimo Joe]

^good to see the temp changes along the Inside Passage

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, SnowLover22 said:

PDO trending upwards the first half of December. @psuhoffman what is your target value out of curosity.

 

If I am understanding the PDO correctly, the general "trough pattern" over the North Western Pacific Ocean that has been ongoing and forecast on the models should act to continue to help cause the PDO Index to rise. 

 

If it can get above -1 for Winter we bring some better cold neutral and weak Nina analogs into play.  The snowier months in those parameters were above -1. Jan-Mar 2014 averaged about -.3. March 2018 was -.8. 2006 was slightly positive. 1996 was +1.  January 2022 is one of the only examples of a snowy month with a severely -pdo so it’s not impossible but most of our snowy months come with a pdo above -1. 
 

however we still have a long way to go, yea it’s rising. But it’s coming off a record low it’s still very negative by any other standard and it would be unprecedented to go from -3.5 in the fall to near neutral by winter. That’s the main reason I didn’t include 2014 in my analogs. 

[winter_warlock]

33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If it can get above -1 for Winter we bring some better cold neutral and weak Nina analogs into play.  The snowier months in those parameters were above -1. Jan-Mar 2014 averaged about -.3. March 2018 was -.8. 2006 was slightly positive. 1996 was +1.  January 2022 is one of the only examples of a snowy month with a severely -pdo so it’s not impossible but most of our snowy months come with a pdo above -1. 
 

however we still have a long way to go, yea it’s rising. But it’s coming off a record low it’s still very negative by any other standard and it would be unprecedented to go from -3.5 in the fall to near neutral by winter. That’s the main reason I didn’t include 2014 in my analogs. 

Jan - March 2014. Was a very snowy period.. for me in central md. Anyway

[winter_warlock]

34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If it can get above -1 for Winter we bring some better cold neutral and weak Nina analogs into play.  The snowier months in those parameters were above -1. Jan-Mar 2014 averaged about -.3. March 2018 was -.8. 2006 was slightly positive. 1996 was +1.  January 2022 is one of the only examples of a snowy month with a severely -pdo so it’s not impossible but most of our snowy months come with a pdo above -1. 
 

however we still have a long way to go, yea it’s rising. But it’s coming off a record low it’s still very negative by any other standard and it would be unprecedented to go from -3.5 in the fall to near neutral by winter. That’s the main reason I didn’t include 2014 in my analogs. 

As always PSU. Very good post brother!!!

[SnowLover22]

45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If it can get above -1 for Winter we bring some better cold neutral and weak Nina analogs into play.  The snowier months in those parameters were above -1. Jan-Mar 2014 averaged about -.3. March 2018 was -.8. 2006 was slightly positive. 1996 was +1.  January 2022 is one of the only examples of a snowy month with a severely -pdo so it’s not impossible but most of our snowy months come with a pdo above -1. 
 

however we still have a long way to go, yea it’s rising. But it’s coming off a record low it’s still very negative by any other standard and it would be unprecedented to go from -3.5 in the fall to near neutral by winter. That’s the main reason I didn’t include 2014 in my analogs. 

You know what is strange, the PDO was near neutral at times last winter(according to chart) yet it didn’t seem to help much. Probably other factors at play (most likely would find an answer by researching the analogs applicable to last year).

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

You know what is strange, the PDO was near neutral at times last winter(according to chart) yet it didn’t seem to help much. Probably other factors at play (most likely would find an answer by researching the analogs applicable to last year).

Closest we got was -1.3 for a month.  Most of the snowy Ninos were positive pdo. There were some slightly -pdo years in the 60s that were snowy. But in that era a -nao offset a hostile pacific. What’s been happening recently is a hostile pacific causes such an extreme SER that it links with the nao ridge into a full latitude eastern ridge. I don’t think that same equation works anymore.  We probably simply need a +pdo Nino. 

[Terpeast]

31 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

You know what is strange, the PDO was near neutral at times last winter(according to chart) yet it didn’t seem to help much. Probably other factors at play (most likely would find an answer by researching the analogs applicable to last year).

1972-73 stood out to me for last year (as the worst case scenario)

[psuhoffman]

So much for “it’s the pacific” 

[psuhoffman]

We just need that cold that’s…wait…where is…ah FCK 

[Scraff]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We just need that cold that’s…wait…where is…ah FCK 

I’ll bet you are a blast at parties. 

[Blizzard of 93]

All 3 ensembles show cold in the east for the 5 day period at the end of their runs from earlier today…

[cbmclean]

The temp graphics posted by PSU and Blizzard of 93 seemed incongruous so I went frame-by-frame on Tidbits.  It appears that the 18Z GEFS mean is verbatim calling for cool nights but warm days in Dayy 11-16 timeframe.  From about Christmas on, the 0Z/6Z timestamps are normal or cool but the 18Z timestamps are warm.  Not sure if that is a realistic detail to be picked out by an ensemble but it's interesting.

[Maestrobjwa]

19 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I’ll bet you’re blast at parties. 

I feel like he gets more depressing by the year...lol I mean on one hand I get it--there's an existential dread over a future where there's no cold anywhere (hence the arguing with the "excuses" even when no one mentions them) On the other hand...dang man. At some point we're gonna have to be at peace with whatever happens and just track the season in front of us.

[Ji]

Gfs gives us snow again Dec 21. Northern stream

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs gives us snow again Dec 21. Northern stream

 

[cbmclean]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I feel like he gets more depressing by the year...lol I mean on one hand I get it--there's an existential dread over a future where there's no cold anywhere (hence the arguing with the "excuses" even when no one mentions them) On the other hand...dang man. At some point we're gonna have to be at peace with whatever happens and just track the season in front of us.

Have you ever wondered what it would be like if "the elephant" was cooling instead?  Every period the 30 year averages go down...the model plots dominated by blue anomalies...cold snaps overperforming...torches constantly disappearing in mid range rug pulls...patterns that used to lead to cold rain suddenly starting to yield 1-3 events...MJO doing an endless circle in 7-8-1-2...every year dreading the Easter cold spell...

No I haven't thought about it either...

[Ji]

 

So lame but I’ll take it

[Blizzard of 93]

0z GFS for the 21st

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

 

Hey that'd be a nice backdrop for Ravens-Steelers 

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

All 3 ensembles show cold in the east for the 5 day period at the end of their runs from earlier today…

Good luck getting that to last long with that background thermal pattern across NaM. It’s 15 days out but that’s ugly.  But that wasn’t my point. The pacific is good there and the whole continent is still torched. Our cold air source is Fckd. 

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I feel like he gets more depressing by the year...lol I mean on one hand I get it--there's an existential dread over a future where there's no cold anywhere (hence the arguing with the "excuses" even when no one mentions them) On the other hand...dang man. At some point we're gonna have to be at peace with whatever happens and just track the season in front of us.

That was a day 15 plot not 15 years. We’re not talking about the future I’m talking about now. 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That was a day 15 plot not 15 years. We’re not talking about the future I’m talking about now. 

Perhaps I read too much into it. When you said "so much for 'it's the pacific'" I thought you were speaking out of dread of the larger issue. My bad

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Perhaps I read too much into it. When you said "so much for 'it's the pacific'" I thought you were speaking out of dread of the larger issue. My bad

No, but the elephant you’re talking about is there behind all of this. Ya it’s part of the reason 90% of the mid latitude land mass of the whole NHem is torched there. That’s not something you’d see in a more balanced period where “means” weren’t out of calibration. That’s something you see when what is “normal” is changing and the means used to make the blues and reds is constantly behind the curve. 
 

But my point was specific to the fact the pacific is 100% opposite of what we have had most of the last 8 years yet NAM is still torched. Yea what little cold there is is in the east but we need a colder profile than that to have a high % of snow. It’s 15 days away, not something to panic about yet, but it’s an ugly look is all. 

[psuhoffman]

I’m mildly interested in the window around the 20-22. There is a brief window we might have enough cold and a chance one one the NS waves could get forced south in the squeeze between amplifying troughs.  The 12z euro and 0z gfs are ways that setup can realistically work. But it’s not something guidance will pin down at range. 

[cbmclean]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

No, but the elephant you’re talking about is there behind all of this. Ya it’s part of the reason 90% of the mid latitude land mass of the whole NHem is torched there. That’s not something you’d see in a more balanced period where “means” weren’t out of calibration. That’s something you see when what is “normal” is changing and the means used to make the blues and reds is constantly behind the curve. 
 

But my point was specific to the fact the pacific is 100% opposite of what we have had most of the last 8 years yet NAM is still torched. Yea what little cold there is is in the east but we need a colder profile than that to have a high % of snow. It’s 15 days away, not something to panic about yet, but it’s an ugly look is all. 

I certainly get why it is disturbing to see the eastern CONUS warm in that scenario, but isn't it expected for a strong -EPO to torch our source regions, with the huge ridge there and all?  Again I'm not saying that it is not an ugly look, but I would not necessarily have keyed on the warmth in NW Canada.

[CAPE]

The 0z GFS forms a wave along a strong cold front with a wall of high pressure behind it for the 21st. That could work for a light to moderate frozen event. Beyond that the next potential storm for Xmas eve has no space to develop until well offshore.

The 0z Euro digs stronger shortwave energy much further south and develops a bigger storm in the SE on the 20th that tracks right over us with rain. Cold air comes in behind.

0z Canadian forms a low offshore of NC and just scrapes the SE coast with some mixed precip.

Pretty decent storm signal with details TBD. Nice to have trackable potential pre Xmas.