rjvanals Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Euro also suggests a chance 12-21/12-22 with a bit better timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 8 minutes ago, Ji said: dr was close Close enough that we could smell the cigar, just couldn’t smoke it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 3 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: Serious question. A while back I felt the Euro was super strong in long range forecasting. When it showed stuff I felt pretty confident. Now both GFS and Euro seem less capable in the long range. Is this perception or real? Is it because we want much more specifics? It may be that the patterns I remember were easier to predict and the chaos the last several years have caused less confidence. Am I wrong? Probably. Short range, models have really gotten much better.. I think. Get to 5+ days and it is so inconsistent you can't rely on what we see at all.. Again, maybe it is due to so much recent instability Many people have shared this observation. Usually our focus is in forecasting snow, and in that context I suspect that the pattern is a significant driver to the feeling of reduced accuracy. For 8 years give or take we have been in a sort of semi-permanent La Nina which tends to mean northern-stream dominant. And as we know those are inherently more difficult for NWP to handle. If we ever get a canonical Nino response again it's possible that guidance may go back to more familiar levels of stability. There's also the fact that for those 8 years, models have been less stable with predicting snow because, well, the patterns have not been conducive to snow. i can remember several instances where the models stably predicted TORCH from 16 days out, and lo it came to pass (Jan 2020 is an example that comes to mind) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 23 minutes ago, Ji said: dr was close EPS and GEFS have a signal. Cold air availability is prime concern. Still crazy to me how Nino-like the pattern is the next couple weeks. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: EPS and GEFS have a signal. Cold air availability is prime concern. Still crazy to me how Nino-like the pattern is the next couple weeks. preview of next winter with colder air available lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 4 minutes ago, Ji said: preview of next winter with colder air available lol It's a Nina, it will double dip. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 WB 12Z EPS....thru Christmas Day. keep hope alive...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 I need December 23rd to be seasonable and dry. It can do whatever it wants starting the 24th. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I need December 23rd to be seasonable and dry. It can do whatever it wants starting the 24th. what a dumb post but okay lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 18 minutes ago, Ji said: what a dumb post but okay lol It's because of his concrete pouring, I think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: It's because of his concrete pouring, I think. In his defense, you can't pick a more reliably warm time in Winter than right around Christmas. Smart move 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Big difference between EURO and GFS with MJO in terms of amplitude into Phase 6 for Christmas week. If the GFS is correct, would think it will be on the warmer side. If EURO is correct, maybe we can still thread the needle with a storm being cold enough... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said: It's a Nina, it will double dip. Was thinking about thos earlier...how likely are weak ninas to double dip? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 25 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Was thinking about thos earlier...how likely are weak ninas to double dip? 16-17 was followed by a double dip in 17-18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 46 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Big difference between EURO and GFS with MJO in terms of amplitude into Phase 6 for Christmas week. If the GFS is correct, would think it will be on the warmer side. If EURO is correct, maybe we can still thread the needle with a storm being cold enough... GEFS has been too strong in recent weeks and having to correct weaker with the MJO consistently 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 2 hours ago, Ji said: dr was close Close to a HECS for Nova Scotia, yes. Doesn't appear very close for you or me. Euro op or euro ai? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Sup 24 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Long shot for sure but still eyeing 12/15-16 for our western zones. As has been pointed out there is a nice strong HP that is progged to run away, but several ens, especially the GEPS members (which I personally think are solid enough) keep it a little mixy/snowy for the I-81 corridor and west 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Close to a HECS for Nova Scotia, yes. Doesn't appear very close for you or me. Euro op or euro ai? 12z Euro AIFS was nice at Day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: Big difference between EURO and GFS with MJO in terms of amplitude into Phase 6 for Christmas week. If the GFS is correct, would think it will be on the warmer side. If EURO is correct, maybe we can still thread the needle with a storm being cold enough... Depends in a La Nina Background state MJO phaase 6 is cold in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Sup Now that ,... would get it done ! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 4 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Now that ,... would get it done ! Boxing Day. That never fails 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Now that ,... would get it done !If we can’t snow with a trough-y East and a banana high up top, we’re in trouble. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: If we can’t snow with a trough-y East and a banana high up top, we’re in trouble. Should work, but that's but one possible outcome from a single op run at hour 360, so we won't necessarily get the chance to find out lol. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 4 hours ago, yoda said: 12z Euro AIFS was nice at Day 10 Do you have a link for this ne AI Euro you can share? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 4 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: Do you have a link for this ne AI Euro you can share? thanks https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_aifs&pwplus=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 This looks decent. Had to be some good members in there. Anyone got the individual member solutions? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: This looks decent. Had to be some good members in there. Anyone got the individual member solutions? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 42 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yea all about timing to see how much push and staying power cold air will have but right now if I am betting even with a good track cold is a problem. upper 30's lower 40's and rain would be my call right now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12 Share Posted December 12 WB 0Z EURO AI.... can it score a coup!!! 9 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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