TSSN+ Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 32 minutes ago, T. August said: I think it’s because we never really have anything to track within 72 hours anymore. So everyone analyzes every run with utmost scrutiny out of sheer boredom. It seems like the models are “less accurate” but the truth is we are noticing things that were always present but quite frankly didn’t care about. Nah even storms that show up day 3+ can’t even be tracked with confidence anymore. Used to get a storm on the euro at 96-120 and it would lock it in. Now not even close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 36 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO. Widespread beneficial rain incoming. First time in awhile it has not gone poof. Be grateful... we need it! this is the Stuarts Draft area in Augusta County tonight: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Why do we do this every year tho? It's fantasy range...so why ride every z? Lol We all know.. But when they look good we comment.. When they look bad we comment. This is the same story every year.. People cancel winter, drool over weenie runs, complain about Lucy pulling the football. Then we have the self righteous telling us how to behave and getting all upset by banter.. It is the way it goes. I find good in it and it is a bit entertaining at times.. Yes, people go too far and many get way too emotionally attached, but it is a ride. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Models from two weeks ago did a good job predicting an unsettled period for this week; but the cold air was just a tease...hopefully the pattern reload after the holidays will be colder as depicted by the current extended guidance. As we get into January, it looks colder and wet. WB extended EPS from yesterday. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 I feel so unsureAs I take my hand and click on pivitalAs the run arrives, something in your eyesCalls to mind a brutal scene And all its sad solutions It’s never snow againThese lower 48 have got no cold air Though it's easy to pretendI know you're not a fool I should've known better than to hope for snowAnd waste the time that I'd been givenSo it’s never gonna snow againThe way it snowed before, oh 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: I feel so unsureAs I take my hand and click on pivitalAs the run arrives, something in your eyesCalls to mind a brutal scene And all its sad solutions It’s never snow againThese lower 48 have got no cold air Though it's easy to pretendI know you're not a fool I should've known better than to hope for snowAnd waste the time that I'd been givenSo it’s never gonna snow againThe way it snowed before, oh It's going to snow on Christmas day. It's will be remembered as CD1 420 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 1 minute ago, dailylurker said: It's going to snow on Christmas day. It's will be remembered as CD1 420 Ya it’ll snow on Christmas Day. In Nova Scotia. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 its a bad day when CAPE and the red taggers don't post a glimmer of hope in the morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 7 minutes ago, Paleocene said: its a bad day when CAPE and the red taggers don't post a glimmer of hope in the morning Just means it is a day of the week that ends in a “y” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 7 minutes ago, Paleocene said: its a bad day when CAPE and the red taggers don't post a glimmer of hope in the morning ive seen worse maps leading up to christmas https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2024120900/eps_T2ma_namer_55.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 ive seen worse maps leading up to christmashttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2024120900/eps_T2ma_namer_55.pngI’m personally meh. Not to sound all negative, but we got teased in the 10+ day LR all year the past 2-3 years. 00z took a baby step backward. When I see progress under 10 days I’ll get excited. The snow means on the ensembles are garbage as well. 1” mean thru 360 hours here in Philly from the 00z eps pretty much sums up what to expect over the next 15 days. December 2024 is toast imo. January could offer some hope though. 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 25 minutes ago, Paleocene said: its a bad day when CAPE and the red taggers don't post a glimmer of hope in the morning A glimmer of hope for what? Wed/Thurs? Well I've learned to ignore supposed backend snow scenarios as they don't usually work here. But...here's a glimmer of hope for the bigger picture that was shared in the general thread 7 hours ago, mitchnick said: You may be right, but I can't recall this kind of cooling over such a large area of the warm pool, from the far western Indian Ocean to Enso 4. And would you expect this kind of cooling with just convection? Idk, just seems like maybe there's more to it. Time will tell I guess. Cool the pool! Cool the pool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 38 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: A glimmer of hope for what? Wed/Thurs? Well I've learned to ignore supposed backend snow scenarios as they don't usually work here. But...here's a glimmer of hope for the bigger picture that was shared in the general thread Cool the pool! Cool the pool! Maestro, you're not obsessively monitoring the status of the West Pac warm pool, hoping against hope for any sign of its weakening from it's current "King Kong on a rampage through New York" strength, are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 There’s a tiny spec of cold in the NW tip of AK 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 If you pull back and stop focusing on our locations specific snow chances the biggest issue I see is this… We need cold anomalies to snow. Our coldest day of the year has an avg high near 40. But if you simply look at a 5 or 10 day mean temp anomaly for the whole northern hemisphere the warm expanse outnumbers cold by 2 and sometimes 3-1 across the mid latitudes. We got lucky recently that one of the small (globally speaking) pockets of cold did end up over us for a week, but how often are we going to win if we need cold and 2/3 of the whole hemisphere is warm at any given time? 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: tempoutlook.map Exactly. Another couple weeks of 45 and sprinkles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If you pull back and stop focusing on our locations specific snow chances the biggest issue I see is this… We need cold anomalies to snow. Our coldest day of the year has an avg high near 40. But if you simply look at a 5 or 10 day mean temp anomaly for the whole northern hemisphere the warm expanse outnumbers cold by 2 and sometimes 3-1 across the mid latitudes. We got lucky recently that one of the small (globally speaking) pockets of cold did end up over us for a week, but how often are we going to win if we need cold and 2/3 of the whole hemisphere is warm at any given time? Is this some sort of unexpected development? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Is this some sort of unexpected development? Someone should do a study on this development. Seems like the earth might be warming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1866182065227517973?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Someone should do a study on this development. Seems like the earth might be warming. To clarify I fully agree with the assessment. I just doubt that anyone who hasn't already been convinced is ever going to be. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 6 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Is this some sort of unexpected development? For most no. But it’s worth saying that there comes a point, and we aren’t there yet, where it won’t even matter what the pattern is. It just won’t be cold enough unless we get increasingly anomalous setups. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 1 minute ago, Prestige Worldwide said: https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1866182065227517973?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A Did BAMWx decide they were going to see if it might be fun to be relentless cold-hypers instead of relentless warm-hypers? I would have stuck with the warm hype; there's more future in it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: For most no. But it’s worth saying that there comes a point, and we aren’t there yet, where it won’t even matter what the pattern is. It just won’t be cold enough unless we get increasingly anomalous setups. My homeland (eastern NC) has already passed that point I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 8 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Is this some sort of unexpected development? It’s also worth pointing out that some have transitioned to rooting for EPO driven cold patterns because lately our more classical ways to snow have failed due to not being cold enough. But this last week was an example of the issue with that. EPO driven patterns are often dry when it’s cold. 2014 and 2015 were anomalies not normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 dr no was trying to do some mischief 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 59 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Maestro, you're not obsessively monitoring the status of the West Pac warm pool, hoping against hope for any sign of its weakening from it's current "King Kong on a rampage through New York" strength, are you? Lol Hey could ya blame me? But nah not obsessively--but I have been hoping that one of these years it would finally start to cool off...and of course we're hoping that -PDO will finally relent! (I'm unclear on how the two are connected if someone could chime in on that. I just know that the warm pool has been a part of said pain in the butt). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 dont let PSU get you down too much. We have had decent winters following a moderate to strong Nino. Not great but fine. 2004-05 wasnt bad. 2010-11 wasnt bad. 87-88, 95-96 wasnt that bad....87-88 wasnt horrible.....2016-17 was a disaster 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 On 12/7/2024 at 7:42 PM, winter_warlock said: Ok ill ask the dumb question......what he hell is a curmudgeon?? Lol I think it's a cross between a coot and a crank. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 did JB hijak Bamwx account? https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1866187927140663665 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now