December Medium/ Long Range

[CAPE]

There has been a signal on the previous few ens runs for something along the east coast pre Xmas but the look was not quite cold enough/favored offshore development. The changes out west this run make that period a bit more interesting. Something to track over the next few model cycles anyway.

[87storms]

I’m here after seeing the gfs.

[winter_warlock]

  On 12/8/2024 at 6:18 PM, Kevin Reilly said:

Looks like a bit of chaos flux on the models last few runs.

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Or as my grandfather would say

.. a clusterf*ck lol 

[winter_warlock]

  On 12/8/2024 at 4:49 PM, StormyClearweather said:

Sign me up. (For entertainment purposes only.)

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Lock it in!!

[winter_warlock]

  On 12/8/2024 at 6:19 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS and GEPS also shifted the Pacific trough south and west! not just the GEFS being underdispersive

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 Pl. In my untrained eye... that position  there would put the east coast in a deep trough.   And  a big arctic invasion!!!  Inless I'm reading it wrong...

[winter_warlock]

  On 12/8/2024 at 6:20 PM, CAPE said:

PD2 

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Would be nice to see PD III This winter 

[Ralph Wiggum]

  On 12/8/2024 at 8:01 PM, winter_warlock said:

Would be nice to see PD III This winter 

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Or Xmas 1 even

[87storms]

  On 12/8/2024 at 6:11 PM, CAPE said:

Like the 12z GFS, the 12z Euro also showing wintry potential in the 19-24 window.

We might not have a choice this year, but to accept snow.

[winter_warlock]

  On 12/8/2024 at 8:23 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Or Xmas 1 even

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Yessss

[winter_warlock]

  On 12/8/2024 at 8:47 PM, 87storms said:

We might not have a choice this year, but to accept snow.

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I can get on board with that!!

[87storms]

  On 12/8/2024 at 8:57 PM, winter_warlock said:

I can get on board with that!!

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I could stand to add a hike in the snow to my rotation.  

18z is rolling now...most important run since 12z.

[Eskimo Joe]

  On 12/8/2024 at 8:47 PM, 87storms said:

We might not have a choice this year, but to accept snow.

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Oh man that would cause some serious ledge jumping. 

[midatlanticweather]

And now for something completely different. LOL! 

[CAPE]

Wave timing /interactions are not going to be the same from run to run at this range, and because the second piece of energy coming overtop the ridge doesnt dig and phase the same way as 12z, it doesnt wrap the cold air in. That 12z evolution was pretty radical lol. General idea of a coastal low for that timeframe is still there on HH GFS.

[winter_warlock]

  On 12/8/2024 at 11:07 PM, midatlanticweather said:

And now for something completely different. LOL! 

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 So what else is new lol

[87storms]

18z gfs said jk

[Maestrobjwa]

  On 12/8/2024 at 11:35 PM, 87storms said:

18z gfs said jk

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Why do we do this every year tho? It's fantasy range...so why ride every z? Lol

[87storms]

  On 12/8/2024 at 11:46 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Why do we do this every year tho? It's fantasy range...so why ride every z? Lol

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I honestly don't lol.  I know very well that it's all about the ensembles at that range.

[TSSN+]

  On 12/8/2024 at 11:46 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Why do we do this every year tho? It's fantasy range...so why ride every z? Lol

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Nothing past hour 96 is even worth looking at anymore. I swear the models got way worse the last few years. Like ya I get there will be changes run to run but they aren’t even close to the same solutions even 96-120 out half the time. 

[winter_warlock]

  On 12/9/2024 at 12:29 AM, 87storms said:

I honestly don't lol.  I know very well that it's all about the ensembles at that range.

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We will have to see what ensembles say

[winter_warlock]

  On 12/9/2024 at 1:07 AM, TSSN+ said:

Nothing past hour 96 is even worth looking at anymore. I swear the models got way worse the last few years. Like ya I get there will be changes run to run but they aren’t even close to the same solutions even 96-120 out half the time. 

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 Well. Models are only a tool... not law. 

[snowmagnet]

I’m flying to France on Dec 25th.  Just need the roads to be clear by 3 pm please.  

[T. August]

  On 12/9/2024 at 1:07 AM, TSSN+ said:

Nothing past hour 96 is even worth looking at anymore. I swear the models got way worse the last few years. Like ya I get there will be changes run to run but they aren’t even close to the same solutions even 96-120 out half the time. 

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I think it’s because we never really have anything to track within 72 hours anymore. So everyone analyzes every run with utmost scrutiny out of sheer boredom. It seems like the models are “less accurate” but the truth is we are noticing things that were always present but quite frankly didn’t care about.

[cbmclean]

  On 12/9/2024 at 1:07 AM, TSSN+ said:

Nothing past hour 96 is even worth looking at anymore. I swear the models got way worse the last few years. Like ya I get there will be changes run to run but they aren’t even close to the same solutions even 96-120 out half the time. 

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Are you honestly annoyed/surprised that a operational storm at 342 hours, disappeared the next run?

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO.  Widespread beneficial rain incoming.  First time in awhile it has not gone poof.  Be grateful... we need it!

[TSSN+]

  On 12/9/2024 at 1:38 AM, cbmclean said:

Are you honestly annoyed/surprised that a operational storm at 342 hours, disappeared the next run?

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Did I say 342? I said in the hour 96-120 even the look changes big time run to run. 

[TSSN+]

  On 12/9/2024 at 1:37 AM, T. August said:

I think it’s because we never really have anything to track within 72 hours anymore. So everyone analyzes every run with utmost scrutiny out of sheer boredom. It seems like the models are “less accurate” but the truth is we are noticing things that were always present but quite frankly didn’t care about.

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Nah even storms that show up day 3+ can’t even be tracked with confidence anymore. Used to get a storm on the euro at 96-120 and it would lock it in.  Now not even close 

[pazzo83]

  On 12/9/2024 at 1:51 AM, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO.  Widespread beneficial rain incoming.  First time in awhile it has not gone poof.  Be grateful... we need it!

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this is the Stuarts Draft area in Augusta County tonight:

 

[midatlanticweather]

  On 12/8/2024 at 11:46 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Why do we do this every year tho? It's fantasy range...so why ride every z? Lol

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We all know.. But when they look good we comment.. When they look bad we comment. This is the same story every year.. People cancel winter, drool over weenie runs, complain about Lucy pulling the football. Then we have the self righteous telling us how to behave and getting all upset by banter.. It is the way it goes. I find good in it and it is a bit entertaining at times.. Yes, people go too far and many get way too emotionally attached, but it is a ride. 

 

[Weather Will]

Models from two weeks ago did a good job predicting an unsettled period for this week; but the cold air was just a tease...hopefully the pattern reload after the holidays will be colder as depicted by the current extended guidance. As we get into January, it looks colder and wet.  WB extended EPS from yesterday.