brooklynwx99 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: The op did that this run so not surprising. Lets see how this goes in the next few model cycles. EPS and GEPS also shifted the Pacific trough south and west! not just the GEFS being underdispersive 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said: That's how we score the big ones! PD2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS and GEPS also shifted the Pacific trough south and west! not just the GEFS being underdispersive Previous couple of GEFS runs had a general shift in the trough westward, but not so much on the EPS. Good to see it. eta: leads to a more amped EPO ridge. That is the biggest difference towards the end of the 12z ens runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Previous couple of GEFS runs had a general shift in the trough westward, but not so much on the EPS. Good to see it. eta: leads to a more amped EPO ridge. That is the biggest difference towards the end of the 12z ens runs. As Tomer’s been tweeting, “torch” potential really isn’t there. Going to be some back and forth with temps, but not as shut/lower the blinds as it looked before 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 There has been a signal on the previous few ens runs for something along the east coast pre Xmas but the look was not quite cold enough/favored offshore development. The changes out west this run make that period a bit more interesting. Something to track over the next few model cycles anyway. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 I’m here after seeing the gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said: Looks like a bit of chaos flux on the models last few runs. Or as my grandfather would say .. a clusterf*ck lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 2 hours ago, StormyClearweather said: Sign me up. (For entertainment purposes only.) Lock it in!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS and GEPS also shifted the Pacific trough south and west! not just the GEFS being underdispersive Pl. In my untrained eye... that position there would put the east coast in a deep trough. And a big arctic invasion!!! Inless I'm reading it wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 1 hour ago, CAPE said: PD2 Would be nice to see PD III This winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 21 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Would be nice to see PD III This winter Or Xmas 1 even 2 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Like the 12z GFS, the 12z Euro also showing wintry potential in the 19-24 window.We might not have a choice this year, but to accept snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 31 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Or Xmas 1 even Yessss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 9 minutes ago, 87storms said: We might not have a choice this year, but to accept snow. I can get on board with that!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 45 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: I can get on board with that!! I could stand to add a hike in the snow to my rotation. 18z is rolling now...most important run since 12z. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 2 hours ago, 87storms said: We might not have a choice this year, but to accept snow. Oh man that would cause some serious ledge jumping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 And now for something completely different. LOL! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Wave timing /interactions are not going to be the same from run to run at this range, and because the second piece of energy coming overtop the ridge doesnt dig and phase the same way as 12z, it doesnt wrap the cold air in. That 12z evolution was pretty radical lol. General idea of a coastal low for that timeframe is still there on HH GFS. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 18 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: And now for something completely different. LOL! So what else is new lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 18z gfs said jk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 9 minutes ago, 87storms said: 18z gfs said jk Why do we do this every year tho? It's fantasy range...so why ride every z? Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 27 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Why do we do this every year tho? It's fantasy range...so why ride every z? Lol I honestly don't lol. I know very well that it's all about the ensembles at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Why do we do this every year tho? It's fantasy range...so why ride every z? Lol Nothing past hour 96 is even worth looking at anymore. I swear the models got way worse the last few years. Like ya I get there will be changes run to run but they aren’t even close to the same solutions even 96-120 out half the time. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 42 minutes ago, 87storms said: I honestly don't lol. I know very well that it's all about the ensembles at that range. We will have to see what ensembles say 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Nothing past hour 96 is even worth looking at anymore. I swear the models got way worse the last few years. Like ya I get there will be changes run to run but they aren’t even close to the same solutions even 96-120 out half the time. Well. Models are only a tool... not law. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 I’m flying to France on Dec 25th. Just need the roads to be clear by 3 pm please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 27 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Nothing past hour 96 is even worth looking at anymore. I swear the models got way worse the last few years. Like ya I get there will be changes run to run but they aren’t even close to the same solutions even 96-120 out half the time. I think it’s because we never really have anything to track within 72 hours anymore. So everyone analyzes every run with utmost scrutiny out of sheer boredom. It seems like the models are “less accurate” but the truth is we are noticing things that were always present but quite frankly didn’t care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 29 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Nothing past hour 96 is even worth looking at anymore. I swear the models got way worse the last few years. Like ya I get there will be changes run to run but they aren’t even close to the same solutions even 96-120 out half the time. Are you honestly annoyed/surprised that a operational storm at 342 hours, disappeared the next run? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 WB 18Z EURO. Widespread beneficial rain incoming. First time in awhile it has not gone poof. Be grateful... we need it! 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 31 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Are you honestly annoyed/surprised that a operational storm at 342 hours, disappeared the next run? Did I say 342? I said in the hour 96-120 even the look changes big time run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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