Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 On 12/8/2024 at 10:14 AM, CAPE said: I mentioned this in a post yesterday afternoon- the NPAC trough digging into the GoA needs to weaken/retrograde towards the Aleutians in order to get some cold air in place with storm chances for our region. The extended products have been advertising this occurring in the last week of the month. The last couple GEFS runs depict this process occurring just before Christmas, as does the 0z GEPS. EPS not quite yet. Expand Even with the advertised 500mb hemispheric look, we are going to take time to rebuild our cold air source. Granted we aren't torching per se east of the Mississippi, but most of our cold source regions are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 On 12/8/2024 at 12:28 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Even with the advertised 500mb hemispheric look, we are going to take time to rebuild our cold air source. Granted we aren't torching per se east of the Mississippi, but most of our cold source regions are. Expand These ens mean temperature anomaly maps can sometimes be deceiving, same as h5 maps. The air up in Canada is still pretty cold. There certainly could be a cold shot or 2 over the coming weeks that gets us below normal temps, but it gets somewhat washed out on a mean. Given the advertised pattern, any cold would likely come behind a storm. Big picture is we will have to wait and see how the pattern progression plays out. At this point snow chances for the lowlands are probably on the low side until maybe the last few days of December. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 From what I can see, GFS is not advertising a blowtorch, even if it is a bit above normal. Nothing super exciting and super cold or super warm. A few warmer days followed by near or slightly below. So, as said, it probably averages out above normal, but not as mild as I think it once looked. Maybe my interpretation is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 On 12/8/2024 at 4:28 AM, Terpeast said: I know its 84h, but the NAM has the freezing boundary further east than gfs or euro Expand I would think at closer leads this rain to snow changeover if there is to be a quicker change will be sniffed out by the short-term dynamic models should there be a surprise and colder air rushes in faster which indeed could happen; it is what we have to look for come Tuesday to Wednesday maybe sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 On 12/8/2024 at 7:07 AM, winter_warlock said: Expand This one is a lot more realistic for us... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 On 12/8/2024 at 2:03 PM, midatlanticweather said: From what I can see, GFS is not advertising a blowtorch, even if it is a bit above normal. Nothing super exciting and super cold or super warm. A few warmer days followed by near or slightly below. So, as said, it probably averages out above normal, but not as mild as I think it once looked. Maybe my interpretation is wrong. Expand 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 On 12/8/2024 at 7:07 AM, winter_warlock said: Expand On 12/8/2024 at 2:07 PM, IronTy said: This one is a lot more realistic for us... Expand But the real question is...when do we reach THIS point where we just don't give a shit (then it's Reaper time!): 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 On 12/8/2024 at 2:26 PM, Scarlet Pimpernel said: But the real question is...when do we reach THIS point where we just don't give a shit (then it's Reaper time!): Expand After the abomination of the past three winters I'm well past the DGAF stage. Even seeing a few flurries is higher than my bar at this point. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 WB 12Z 12K NAM for Wed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 On 12/8/2024 at 2:19 PM, WxUSAF said: Expand That 500mb plot on the right is nice. Full blown cold air source CPF type thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 8, 2024 Author Share Posted December 8, 2024 On 12/8/2024 at 3:09 PM, Weather Will said: WB 12Z 12K NAM for Wed. Expand Lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 Sign me up. (For entertainment purposes only.) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 This could be fun lol 6 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 On 12/8/2024 at 5:00 PM, CAPE said: This could be fun lol Expand Im more partial to its end up run setup 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 On 12/8/2024 at 5:16 PM, SnowenOutThere said: Im more partial to its end up run setup Expand I’ve been dreaming about a major overrunning event like that for 7-8 years. Since that year we were tracking one in late December and then the cold air ended up squashing it to oblivion. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 On 12/8/2024 at 5:16 PM, SnowenOutThere said: Im more partial to its end up run setup Expand A wall of strong HP up north with overrunning potential. GFS seems to like advertising this in the LR lately. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 On 12/8/2024 at 5:18 PM, WxUSAF said: I’ve been dreaming about a major overrunning event like that for 7-8 years. Since that year we were tracking one in late December and then the cold air ended up squashing it to oblivion. Expand When is the last big event (or even moderate) one like shown at the end of its run? I personally can't remember a single one but my non fuzzy memories of winter start post 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 On 12/8/2024 at 5:22 PM, SnowenOutThere said: When is the last big event (or even moderate) one like shown at the end of its run? I personally can't remember a single one but my non fuzzy memories of winter start post 2016. Expand I don’t have @psuhoffmans photographic memory for light to moderate events lol. But I think it’s been awhile… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 Jaws worthy look at the end of the GFS just in time for Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 really nice trend towards a taller AK ridge. went from a +EPO to -EPO in one model cycle 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 I don’t think the multi-day overrunning phantom event in the LR has worked out once in the past decade. We’re due? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 On 12/8/2024 at 5:53 PM, brooklynwx99 said: really nice trend towards a taller AK ridge. went from a +EPO to -EPO in one model cycle Expand lol it casually sped up the pattern progression by 100 hours or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 On 12/8/2024 at 5:53 PM, brooklynwx99 said: really nice trend towards a taller AK ridge. went from a +EPO to -EPO in one model cycle Expand The op did that this run so not surprising. Lets see how this goes in the next few model cycles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 Like the 12z GFS, the 12z Euro also showing wintry potential in the 19-24 window. 6 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 On 12/8/2024 at 5:16 PM, SnowenOutThere said: Im more partial to its end up run setup Expand Looks like a bit of chaos flux on the models last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 On 12/8/2024 at 5:21 PM, CAPE said: A wall of strong HP up north with overrunning potential. GFS seems to like advertising this in the LR lately. Expand That's how we score the big ones! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 On 12/8/2024 at 6:02 PM, CAPE said: The op did that this run so not surprising. Lets see how this goes in the next few model cycles. Expand EPS and GEPS also shifted the Pacific trough south and west! not just the GEFS being underdispersive 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 On 12/8/2024 at 6:19 PM, Kevin Reilly said: That's how we score the big ones! Expand PD2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 On 12/8/2024 at 6:19 PM, brooklynwx99 said: EPS and GEPS also shifted the Pacific trough south and west! not just the GEFS being underdispersive Expand Previous couple of GEFS runs had a general shift in the trough westward, but not so much on the EPS. Good to see it. eta: leads to a more amped EPO ridge. That is the biggest difference towards the end of the 12z ens runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2024 Share Posted December 8, 2024 On 12/8/2024 at 6:24 PM, CAPE said: Previous couple of GEFS runs had a general shift in the trough westward, but not so much on the EPS. Good to see it. eta: leads to a more amped EPO ridge. That is the biggest difference towards the end of the 12z ens runs. Expand As Tomer’s been tweeting, “torch” potential really isn’t there. Going to be some back and forth with temps, but not as shut/lower the blinds as it looked before 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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