winter_warlock Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 No says no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 22 minutes ago, Ji said: No says no There likely won't be much if any moisture left by the time the colder air comes in. Places further NW maybe see some snow showers at the end. The GFS and sometimes the 12km NAM seem to overdo this in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 I mentioned this in a post yesterday afternoon- the NPAC trough digging into the GoA needs to weaken/retrograde towards the Aleutians in order to get some cold air in place with storm chances for our region. The extended products have been advertising this occurring in the last week of the month. The last couple GEFS runs depict this process occurring just before Christmas, as does the 0z GEPS. EPS not quite yet. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 2 hours ago, CAPE said: I mentioned this in a post yesterday afternoon- the NPAC trough digging into the GoA needs to weaken/retrograde towards the Aleutians in order to get some cold air in place with storm chances for our region. The extended products have been advertising this occurring in the last week of the month. The last couple GEFS runs depict this process occurring just before Christmas, as does the 0z GEPS. EPS not quite yet. Even with the advertised 500mb hemispheric look, we are going to take time to rebuild our cold air source. Granted we aren't torching per se east of the Mississippi, but most of our cold source regions are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Even with the advertised 500mb hemispheric look, we are going to take time to rebuild our cold air source. Granted we aren't torching per se east of the Mississippi, but most of our cold source regions are. These ens mean temperature anomaly maps can sometimes be deceiving, same as h5 maps. The air up in Canada is still pretty cold. There certainly could be a cold shot or 2 over the coming weeks that gets us below normal temps, but it gets somewhat washed out on a mean. Given the advertised pattern, any cold would likely come behind a storm. Big picture is we will have to wait and see how the pattern progression plays out. At this point snow chances for the lowlands are probably on the low side until maybe the last few days of December. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 From what I can see, GFS is not advertising a blowtorch, even if it is a bit above normal. Nothing super exciting and super cold or super warm. A few warmer days followed by near or slightly below. So, as said, it probably averages out above normal, but not as mild as I think it once looked. Maybe my interpretation is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 9 hours ago, Terpeast said: I know its 84h, but the NAM has the freezing boundary further east than gfs or euro I would think at closer leads this rain to snow changeover if there is to be a quicker change will be sniffed out by the short-term dynamic models should there be a surprise and colder air rushes in faster which indeed could happen; it is what we have to look for come Tuesday to Wednesday maybe sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 7 hours ago, winter_warlock said: This one is a lot more realistic for us... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 15 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: From what I can see, GFS is not advertising a blowtorch, even if it is a bit above normal. Nothing super exciting and super cold or super warm. A few warmer days followed by near or slightly below. So, as said, it probably averages out above normal, but not as mild as I think it once looked. Maybe my interpretation is wrong. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 7 hours ago, winter_warlock said: 19 minutes ago, IronTy said: This one is a lot more realistic for us... But the real question is...when do we reach THIS point where we just don't give a shit (then it's Reaper time!): 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 24 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: But the real question is...when do we reach THIS point where we just don't give a shit (then it's Reaper time!): After the abomination of the past three winters I'm well past the DGAF stage. Even seeing a few flurries is higher than my bar at this point. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 WB 12Z 12K NAM for Wed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: That 500mb plot on the right is nice. Full blown cold air source CPF type thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 8 Author Share Posted December 8 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z 12K NAM for Wed. Lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Sign me up. (For entertainment purposes only.) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 This could be fun lol 6 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: This could be fun lol Im more partial to its end up run setup 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Im more partial to its end up run setup I’ve been dreaming about a major overrunning event like that for 7-8 years. Since that year we were tracking one in late December and then the cold air ended up squashing it to oblivion. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Im more partial to its end up run setup A wall of strong HP up north with overrunning potential. GFS seems to like advertising this in the LR lately. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I’ve been dreaming about a major overrunning event like that for 7-8 years. Since that year we were tracking one in late December and then the cold air ended up squashing it to oblivion. When is the last big event (or even moderate) one like shown at the end of its run? I personally can't remember a single one but my non fuzzy memories of winter start post 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: When is the last big event (or even moderate) one like shown at the end of its run? I personally can't remember a single one but my non fuzzy memories of winter start post 2016. I don’t have @psuhoffmans photographic memory for light to moderate events lol. But I think it’s been awhile… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Jaws worthy look at the end of the GFS just in time for Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 really nice trend towards a taller AK ridge. went from a +EPO to -EPO in one model cycle 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 I don’t think the multi-day overrunning phantom event in the LR has worked out once in the past decade. We’re due? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: really nice trend towards a taller AK ridge. went from a +EPO to -EPO in one model cycle lol it casually sped up the pattern progression by 100 hours or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: really nice trend towards a taller AK ridge. went from a +EPO to -EPO in one model cycle The op did that this run so not surprising. Lets see how this goes in the next few model cycles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Like the 12z GFS, the 12z Euro also showing wintry potential in the 19-24 window. 6 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said: Im more partial to its end up run setup Looks like a bit of chaos flux on the models last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 57 minutes ago, CAPE said: A wall of strong HP up north with overrunning potential. GFS seems to like advertising this in the LR lately. That's how we score the big ones! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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