Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,611
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

December Medium/ Long Range


Terpeast
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

This week was cold as advertised, though, wasn't it?

It was, yes. The models were never in any agreement about us getting a snowstorm. Then they showed some moderation, which it looks like is going to happen. I think the models did a decent job with the broad strokes.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This week was cold as advertised, though, was it not?

Yes indeed!  And that is why I remain cautiously optimistic for some chances this year.  Remember last year, no sustained cold and a lot of false hope two week outlooks....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

It was, yes. The models were never in any agreement about us getting a snowstorm. Then they showed some moderation, which it looks like is going to happen. I think the models did a decent job with the broad strokes.

If I understand correctly, this little cold spell was a bit of a surprise on in terms of 3/4 week modeling as things looked bad for early December before 11/15 or so.  But once it came into 384 range it was pretty stable, which is kind of unusual for modelled cold these days...

  • yes 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

12z EPS still has a very workable look by day 15.

IMG_7840.png

Not sure how workable that is.  Way too much NPac troughing.  Yeah, there is an eastern trough but at best we're left with "domestic" cold, and that doesn't work anymore so it seems.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

 

Yes indeed!  And that is why I remain cautiously optimistic for some chances this year.  Remember last year, no sustained cold and a lot of false hope two week outlooks....

That is why just some periods of sustained cold like we had this week are my low LOW bar. I mean the difficulty of getting even that the last 8-9 years has been insane. Just let it FEEL like winter please, at the very least!

And yes the "at the end of the run" false hope analysis...I find that when the overall pattern is doing something not favorable, better not to pay said end of the run much attention unless you see the desired change move up in time. Otherwise it's just wishing upon an hour 384 model run, lol

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Not sure how workable that is.  Way too much NPac troughing.  Yeah, there is an eastern trough but at best we're left with "domestic" cold, and that doesn't work anymore so it seems.

That is just the beginning of the improved pattern. See the Euro Weeklies progression over the following weeks that I posted earlier.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Ji said:


Is there any cold air though? Source regions seem cooked

A lobe of the polar vortex seems to be wanting to drift towards our side of the globe and a +PNA / Alaska Ridge is trying to build in again. Would argue this reload by just after New Years. It's not terrible.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Ji said:


Is there any cold air though? Source regions seem cooked

Not looking good, and when it gets colder in early 2025 Tomer states the pattern only supports a clipper in the East.  Tomer states similiar to the early December pattern with below normal temps,  but also below normal precip. 

 

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1865454685676806338

 

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1865454685676806338

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, frd said:

Not looking good, and when it gets colder in early 2025 Tomer states the pattern only supports a clipper in the East.  Tomer states similiar to the early December pattern with below normal temps,  but also below normal precip. 

 

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1865454685676806338

 

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1865454685676806338

IF we get cold again (always a big if) it will almost certainly be -EPO driven, so cold dry should be the expectation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It’s the snowiest of the rain to snow runs by far. This thing still has a chance IMO… Rare for these to work out, but not a lot of other game in town. IMG_2065.thumb.png.a751ce4f05defb1665c352e07172e88c.png

Didn’t something like this happen last year at this time?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, frd said:

Not looking good, and when it gets colder in early 2025 Tomer states the pattern only supports a clipper in the East.  Tomer states similiar to the early December pattern with below normal temps,  but also below normal precip. 

 

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1865454685676806338

 

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1865454685676806338

Euro Weeklies have a decent amount of precip in the Mid Atlantic during early January. 
Here are the 7 day totals for the first 2 weeks of January. 

IMG_7845.png

IMG_7846.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, T. August said:

Finally some hits on the gefs members. Nothing crazy but there are now a few that show 2-4” even down towards DC/Baltimore.

They’ve been ticking up for the past 24 hours. They always overestimate these kind of events though.

looking back at the runs I screenshotted from last year this looks a ton like the Dec. 11, 2023 storm @Ji. Would be uncanny to run it back literally exactly a year later. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...