Weather Will Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 This week looked good two weeks ago and it went kerpluee... I am in wait and see mode for Christmas week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: This week looked good two weeks ago and it went kerpluee... I am in wait and see mode for Christmas week. This week was cold as advertised, though, wasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 8 Author Share Posted December 8 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: This week was cold as advertised, though, wasn't it? It was, yes. The models were never in any agreement about us getting a snowstorm. Then they showed some moderation, which it looks like is going to happen. I think the models did a decent job with the broad strokes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: This week was cold as advertised, though, was it not? Yes indeed! And that is why I remain cautiously optimistic for some chances this year. Remember last year, no sustained cold and a lot of false hope two week outlooks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 49 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Here is the 12Z EPS members at Day 15....jury is still out on whether it will cold /warm/normal... That's surprisingly variable given the look on the mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 The latest Euro Weeklies still look workable from the last week of December through mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 10 minutes ago, Terpeast said: It was, yes. The models were never in any agreement about us getting a snowstorm. Then they showed some moderation, which it looks like is going to happen. I think the models did a decent job with the broad strokes. If I understand correctly, this little cold spell was a bit of a surprise on in terms of 3/4 week modeling as things looked bad for early December before 11/15 or so. But once it came into 384 range it was pretty stable, which is kind of unusual for modelled cold these days... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 23 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 12z EPS still has a very workable look by day 15. Not sure how workable that is. Way too much NPac troughing. Yeah, there is an eastern trough but at best we're left with "domestic" cold, and that doesn't work anymore so it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Yes indeed! And that is why I remain cautiously optimistic for some chances this year. Remember last year, no sustained cold and a lot of false hope two week outlooks.... That is why just some periods of sustained cold like we had this week are my low LOW bar. I mean the difficulty of getting even that the last 8-9 years has been insane. Just let it FEEL like winter please, at the very least! And yes the "at the end of the run" false hope analysis...I find that when the overall pattern is doing something not favorable, better not to pay said end of the run much attention unless you see the desired change move up in time. Otherwise it's just wishing upon an hour 384 model run, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 2 hours ago, Ji said: Ho ho ho…I haven’t made a significant contribution since March 2001 but merry Christmas dude you can't bring up that god-awful "storm" - you know this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 1 hour ago, winter_warlock said: Damn that's a torch and a half!!!! palm tress for Christmas in Fargo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Euro weeklies are nice. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 38 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Not sure how workable that is. Way too much NPac troughing. Yeah, there is an eastern trough but at best we're left with "domestic" cold, and that doesn't work anymore so it seems. That is just the beginning of the improved pattern. See the Euro Weeklies progression over the following weeks that I posted earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 18z GEFS agrees with the EPS with the improved look beginning around day 15. Here is the end of the 16 day run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 18z GEFS agrees with the EPS with the improved look beginning around day 15. Here is the end of the 16 day run.Is there any cold air though? Source regions seem cooked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Is there any cold air though? Source regions seem cooked A lobe of the polar vortex seems to be wanting to drift towards our side of the globe and a +PNA / Alaska Ridge is trying to build in again. Would argue this reload by just after New Years. It's not terrible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 30 minutes ago, Ji said: Is there any cold air though? Source regions seem cooked Not looking good, and when it gets colder in early 2025 Tomer states the pattern only supports a clipper in the East. Tomer states similiar to the early December pattern with below normal temps, but also below normal precip. https://x.com/webberweather/status/1865454685676806338 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1865454685676806338 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 00z gfs actually gives Winchester 2-3” from the Wed-Thurs thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 4 minutes ago, T. August said: 00z gfs actually gives Winchester 2-3” from the Wed-Thurs thing It’s the snowiest of the rain to snow runs by far. This thing still has a chance IMO… Rare for these to work out, but not a lot of other game in town. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 2 hours ago, pazzo83 said: palm tress for Christmas in Fargo. Lmoo yep!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 18 minutes ago, frd said: Not looking good, and when it gets colder in early 2025 Tomer states the pattern only supports a clipper in the East. Tomer states similiar to the early December pattern with below normal temps, but also below normal precip. https://x.com/webberweather/status/1865454685676806338 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1865454685676806338 IF we get cold again (always a big if) it will almost certainly be -EPO driven, so cold dry should be the expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 It’s the snowiest of the rain to snow runs by far. This thing still has a chance IMO… Rare for these to work out, but not a lot of other game in town. Didn’t something like this happen last year at this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 21 minutes ago, frd said: Not looking good, and when it gets colder in early 2025 Tomer states the pattern only supports a clipper in the East. Tomer states similiar to the early December pattern with below normal temps, but also below normal precip. https://x.com/webberweather/status/1865454685676806338 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1865454685676806338 Euro Weeklies have a decent amount of precip in the Mid Atlantic during early January. Here are the 7 day totals for the first 2 weeks of January. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Mashed taters? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Didn’t something like this happen last year at this time? yeah good recall - checked my photos and exactly Dec. 11 we had a rain/snow situation. Good couple hours of snow with road caves even in Arlington… think I managed to sneak an inch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 8 Author Share Posted December 8 I know its 84h, but the NAM has the freezing boundary further east than gfs or euro 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I know its 84h, but the NAM has the freezing boundary further east than gfs or euro We like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Finally some hits on the gefs members. Nothing crazy but there are now a few that show 2-4” even down towards DC/Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 3 minutes ago, T. August said: Finally some hits on the gefs members. Nothing crazy but there are now a few that show 2-4” even down towards DC/Baltimore. They’ve been ticking up for the past 24 hours. They always overestimate these kind of events though. looking back at the runs I screenshotted from last year this looks a ton like the Dec. 11, 2023 storm @Ji. Would be uncanny to run it back literally exactly a year later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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