NorthArlington101 Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 3 minutes ago, yoda said: So... day 8 to 10 on the 00z CMC Would be nice if we could continue tracking through Christmas after our almost guaranteed fail next week. I’m heading on a family (not my ideal date timeline) vacation for the 2nd week of January, so need to score before then. Last time I went on vacation was the Jan 3/4th 2022 snowstorm… still annnoyed about that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 WB 18Z EURO: story the next 6 days is the much needed rain incoming Monday and Wed.Don’t post rain maps please. Nobody cares 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 2 hours ago, Ji said: Don’t post rain maps please. Nobody cares In the local tv weather person voice- The story of the next 6 days.. warm rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 2 hours ago, Ji said: Don’t post rain maps please. Nobody cares I hope people care if we have an adequate water supply next summer. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 Way out there, but the 0z EPS and GEFS have a coastal low signal a few days before Christmas. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 WB 0Z EPS. There are some cold members in the days leading up to Christmas... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Way out there, but the 0z EPS and GEFS have a coastal low signal a few days before Christmas. Not speaking about this specifically, but it’s crazy to me how Nino-like the pattern is in 10-14 days according to the ensembles. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Not speaking about this specifically, but it’s crazy to me how Nino-like the pattern is in 10-14 days according to the ensembles. Yeah not a Nina h5 look 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 7 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: ...I’m heading on a family (not my ideal date timeline) vacation for the 2nd week of January, so need to score before then... We're visiting our daughter in Morehead City, NC from Dec. 21 to 28 so enjoy your white Christmas 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Not speaking about this specifically, but it’s crazy to me how Nino-like the pattern is in 10-14 days according to the ensembles. A couple of things.... 1. Isn't that the hallmark of neutral conditions... 2. Or is it that the overall basin of the Pacific is that warm due to climate change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 An improved pattern should be setting up a few days before Christmas if the EPS & GEFS are on the right track. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 The latest GEFS extended & Euro Weeklies continue this improved pattern look for the week between Christmas & New Year’s. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1865390190975434987?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said: A couple of things.... 1. Isn't that the hallmark of neutral conditions... 2. Or is it that the overall basin of the Pacific is that warm due to climate change... Not sure it’s either. I think it’s just subseasonal forcing like the MJO combining with factors like the warm water in the west Pacific producing this sort of look. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 I need it warm through Christmas to get come conrete poured then we can drop the hammer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 I am going to run out of firewood at this rate if we don't torch soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 29 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Not sure it’s either. I think it’s just subseasonal forcing like the MJO combining with factors like the warm water in the west Pacific producing this sort of look. Yeah, research by Webb showed that correlation a couple weeks ago. Study showed it appeared to augment a + TNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 3 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah, research by Webb showed that correlation a couple weeks ago. Study showed it appeared to augment a + TNH. The looks D10-15 on the ensembles are not really +TNH, they look very much like a mod-strong Nino climo. But the extended progs all evolve that to a +TNH look into the end of the month and December. That would fit more with the background forcing 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The looks D10-15 on the ensembles are not really +TNH, they look very much like a mod-strong Nino climo. But the extended progs all evolve that to a +TNH look into the end of the month and December. That would fit more with the background forcing True. The Nino look is a bit of a Puzzle. The Study did find that the Nina augmented Pac Ridge is shunted Eastward toward the GOA with the Pattern so, that would allow for possible Aleutian LP Development. As we know, typically you get that in a Nino. As far as a STJ , the Nina is weak so we should have that to work with some but, not a formidable one like in a Nino. This Winter just may be one of the odd out, off kilter One's that causes alot of busted Forecasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: An improved pattern should be setting up a few days before Christmas if the EPS & GEFS are on the right track. Annual Christmas period warm up may not happen this year. Would break tradition going back many years. Most encouraging is the pattern forecased later month, but even more is not seeing the rapid rise in the AO and snow cover is not going to be eroded in the source regions such as in years past. 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 4 hours ago, CAPE said: In the local tv weather person voice- The story of the next 6 days.. warm rain Yeah thanks for the scoop... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 32 minutes ago, frd said: Annual Christmas period warm up may not happen this year. Would break tradition going back many years. Most encouraging is the pattern forecased later month, but even more is not seeing the rapid rise in the AO and snow cover is not going to be eroded in the source regions such as in years past. Wild that were almost at the winter solstice and Hudson Bay is wide open. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 7 Author Share Posted December 7 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wild that were almost at the winter solstice and Hudson Bay is wide open. Its been warm up there for so long, it’s gonna take a while for it to freeze over. And with the upcoming 500 pattern, i’m not sure it will by christmas. That being said, there will be plenty of snow cover from the looks of it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 53 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: True. The Nino look is a bit of a Puzzle. The Study did find that the Nina augmented Pac Ridge is shunted Eastward toward the GOA with the Pattern so, that would allow for possible Aleutian LP Development. As we know, typically you get that in a Nino. As far as a STJ , the Nina is weak so we should have that to work with some but, not a formidable one like in a Nino. This Winter just may be one of the odd out, off kilter One's that causes alot of busted Forecasts. With the oceans boiling anymore, it seems like we want weak ENSO states and nothing raging or we're cooked. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Wild that were almost at the winter solstice and Hudson Bay is wide open. All Normal welcome to the new normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: The looks D10-15 on the ensembles are not really +TNH, they look very much like a mod-strong Nino climo. But the extended progs all evolve that to a +TNH look into the end of the month and December. That would fit more with the background forcing Mixed enso signals are unsurprising. At least to me. Prob persist thru first half of met winter if I had to guess. The +tnh general idea is what I was hoping to see when I engaged in the fall. Doesn't mean easy snow lol but it does mean that cold air intrusions can support snow if everything else cooperates. Early season is pretty tuff tho. Carving target practice is already small strike zone at any point in winter. Cold chasing precip or trailing waves is more of a JFM thing in the closer burbs. If I see anything that looks like it could set up something more flush I'll jump in. Doesnt have to be fancy. Just need mids to be feeding from the north as precip approaches. In Dec, if the cold isn't feeding when it's precipitating, it gets really hard for lower/easter elevations to do much. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 This is the type of +tnh we need in Dec. Axis is broad. Has more of a bowl shape instead of a vase. I don't like vertical patterns much but CAPE has been on a heater with those later in the season lol. I say this often but the 8:30-2:30 trajectory with energy tracking thru the TN valley is a prime setup for us at any point in winter. Especially early. All this said, I hope the cfs is right for Jan.... 2014 vibes 20 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 Speaking of Ninohttps://x.com/bennollweather/status/1865402383448113384?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said: All Normal welcome to the new normal. Hudson Bay normally begins to freeze in November with complete freeze over by late December/Early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: This is the type of +tnh we need in Dec. Axis is broad. Has more of a bowl shape instead of a vase. I don't like vertical patterns much but CAPE has been on a heater with those later in the season lol. I say this often but the 8:30-2:30 trajectory with energy tracking thru the TN valley is a prime setup for us at any point in winter. Especially early. All this said, I hope the cfs is right for Jan.... 2014 vibes Total greatness in cold source region 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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