EastCoast NPZ Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 14 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Which comes next? White Christmas or 75F+ Christmas? I think we all know the answer to that question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 6 Author Share Posted December 6 7 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: More days in the 60s than in the 30s. Pitiful. And the one winter that did have the coldest xmas day turned out to be a +8 torch for Jan/Feb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 GFS is so close to something better but the trough goes negative tilt a little too late. Regardless we still get some snow showers and it was an improvement from 6z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: GFS is so close to something better but the trough goes negative tilt a little too late. Regardless we still get some snow showers and it was an improvement from 6z Still cold chasing precip....its a long shot IMO. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 6 Author Share Posted December 6 15 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Still cold chasing precip....its a long shot IMO. All three main models are in good agreement on the broad strokes of this system. The little details can change, though. I don’t think any further changes will result in us getting any substantial snow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 28 minutes ago, Terpeast said: All three main models are in good agreement on the broad strokes of this system. The little details can change, though. I don’t think any further changes will result in us getting any substantial snow. A little bit of rain-to-snow would be a win. It's been a fairly active few weeks for tracking even if the only person who got any notable measurable snow from it is in the midst of canceling winner. Better than boring. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 12z GFS doesn't seem too far off here. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z GFS doesn't seem too far off here. It looked a bit like a follow up wave than a cold chasing air event on the 12z gfs. Euro had that idea too but way too far north with the secondary low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 22 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z GFS doesn't seem too far off here. As much as we have trended away from storms in the past, we have trended into some events as well. Worth keeping tabs on a few more days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 I think all 3 globals got closer to “something” with the 12z runs. They essentially split the follow up wave into 2 parts so the second barely has a little precip around as the cold air arrives. It’s very much on the razor edge and I wouldn’t believe it until short range if it played out this way. If some how that second part can separate more and therefore have the cold air more in place, we’d have a more confident chance. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 Model whiff number one picking right back up where it left off. Sundays snows miss with low being 250 miles off and temps 10-15 degrees milder. Thank goodness NHC is not like this but I imagine far more money and effort is put into them getting it right because of the dire consequences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Model whiff number one picking right back up where it left off. Sundays snows miss with low being 250 miles off and temps 10-15 degrees milder. Thank goodness NHC is not like this but I imagine far more money and effort is put into them getting it right because of the dire consequences your signature is just weird brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 4 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: Model whiff number one picking right back up where it left off. Sundays snows miss with low being 250 miles off and temps 10-15 degrees milder. Thank goodness NHC is not like this but I imagine far more money and effort is put into them getting it right because of the dire consequences Your constant disappointment would disappear if you stopped equating day 7-10 GFS output with official guidance from a government agency. The last time it showed any significant snowstorm for our area this weekend was 06z 11/30 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 New edition of the Euro Weeklies for the last week of Dec- 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 Weeklies H5 for the beginning of Jan. Qpf looks avg to slightly above. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: New edition of the Euro Weeklies for the last week of Dec- that Aleutian trough likely retrogrades and pops a nice +PNA. pretty Nino-like 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 And just for the hell of it.. ooh January 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: that Aleutian trough likely retrogrades and pops a nice +PNA. pretty Nino-like Yep. Minus a legit southern stream(although maybe not completely absent), very much so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yep. Minus a legit southern stream(although maybe not completely absent), very much so. sounds like we are not in the deep cold so while warmer --storm chances would increase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 6 minutes ago, Ji said: sounds like we are not in the deep cold so while warmer --storm chances would increase I like seeing that strip of higher heights to the south with cold in our source region poised to come southward. Not a Nino look but we need cold and Ninos don't bring it lately. As depicted that's a gradient pattern look, with potential waves riding the thermal boundary just to our south. That is uncomplicated and has worked out quite well in recent winters. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said: Model whiff number one picking right back up where it left off. Sundays snows miss with low being 250 miles off and temps 10-15 degrees milder. Thank goodness NHC is not like this but I imagine far more money and effort is put into them getting it right because of the dire consequences We get that you don't like computer forecasting models, but could you please stop spouting pure nonsense about them? 3 3 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 11 minutes ago, high risk said: We get that you don't like computer forecasting models, but could you please stop spouting pure nonsense about them? The magic of the Mongolian High. Not sure how he monitors it other than looking at the model guidance lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 Happy hour looks a baby step closer again. Trailing wave is stronger and trough is more negatively tilted. Problem is the boundary layer. Temps still in U30s/N40 when there’s still some precip. Freezing level around 950mb. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Happy hour looks a baby step closer again. Trailing wave is stronger and trough is more negatively tilted. Problem is the boundary layer. Temps still in U30s/N40 when there’s still some precip. Freezing level around 950mb. Part of me thinks this is gonna end up being a nice storm for SNE while we get white rain on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 10 minutes ago, T. August said: Part of me thinks this is gonna end up being a nice storm for SNE while we get white rain on the back side. Definitely a more likely outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 1 hour ago, high risk said: We get that you don't like computer forecasting models, but could you please stop spouting pure nonsense about them? I know, right? It's really beyond insulting with his comments and assertions. It insults the scientists and programmers who work hard and diligently on NWP and it displays an almost willful lack of understanding on how to use and interpret numerical models. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 As many of you know, on Friday afternoon the CPC puts out their 3 to 4 week outlook. Some hope for a return to winter cold although the EPS holds onto the warmth for at least another week. ... and if you (like me) spend as much time following New England weather than ours these days, you may be disappointed. This pattern is a fairly substantial change from the Week-2 guidance and is suggestive of mean enhanced southerly flow into Alaska and a potential for northerly flow into the central and eastern CONUS. This pattern increases the potential for cold air outbreaks; however, with a strengthened polar vortex feature, a positive AO signal, and a warm pattern antecedent to the Weeks 3 and 4 period, there may not be significant reservoirs of cold air in place to invade the Lower 48. Across the East, equal chances are maintained for most regions due to the considerable uncertainty, with the ECMWF maintaining a warmer pattern in the absence of stronger MJO forcing, while the GEFS favors a transition to a colder pattern by Week-4. Mean enhanced southerly flow over New England favors above-average temperatures. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 38 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: I know, right? It's really beyond insulting with his comments and assertions. It insults the scientists and programmers who work hard and diligently on NWP and it displays an almost willful lack of understanding on how to use and interpret numerical models. Remove the word almost and you nailed it. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 WB 18Z EURO: story the next 6 days is the much needed rain incoming Monday and Wed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 So... day 8 to 10 on the 00z CMC 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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