winter_warlock Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Just now, RedSky said: Yes even more rain At least ull get rain. We need it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Yes even more rain Now now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Gfs in a great spot for 190 hours out!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Ya shift that low another 100 miles se and we in game. The high to the north got better this run too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Just now, winter_warlock said: Gfs in a great spot for 190 hours out!! Yes need the northern branch with the cold high up north to move faster and the way things over the past few years have been going with the northern branch it would be surprising to see it move faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 It's better but not there. More confluence at h5 with a better surface High position to the north; low track a bit further east. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Gfs is farther south compared to 12 z Sooooo close to being a biggie for alot of us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Keep on ticking south 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Keep on ticking south What a friendly trend. We have 8 more dayzzzzzz 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: It's better but not there. More confluence at h5 with a better surface High position to the north; low track a bit further east. What should we be watching for over the next few days? Better high position and confluence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Weather Alerts-Haymarket, VA Special Weather Statement Until Thu 3:00 am EST 1 of 2 Action Recommended Avoid the subject event as per the instructions Issued By Baltimore/Washington - MD, US, National Weather Service Affected Area Northwest Prince William County Description ...BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE, THEN BECOMING WINDY AND MUCH COLDER... A strong cold front moves across the area Thursday morning, then much colder and windy conditions quickly develop into Thursday night. For areas along and west of the Blue Ridge Mountains, a period of snow showers, possibly mixed with some rain, is likely Thursday morning between 3 AM to 6 AM. For areas east of the Blue Ridge, a mix of rain and snow showers is likely between 5 AM to 8 AM. Additional light snow showers are possible through late morning. In areas along and west of the Blue Ridge and in north-central Maryland, near freezing temperatures could allow some of this snow to stick on roadways, possibly creating slick conditions. Commuters Thursday morning should allow extra time to reach their destination, and use extra caution when driving through any snow shower. Windy conditions quickly develop around or just after sunrise Thursday morning, and continue through Thursday evening. Wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph are expected across the area, with up to 60 mph possible. These strong winds could result in downed trees and power lines. Those outdoors Thursday morning will notice a rapid decrease in temperature when those strong winds begin. The strong winds and cold temperatures will produce wind chills in the teens to low 20s the entire day, even in sunnier conditions during the afternoon. It is important to wear appropriate clothing to avoid frostbite and hypothermia. Take needed actions to protect yourself, children, pets, plants, and pipes from the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 14 minutes ago, yoda said: What should we be watching for over the next few days? Better high position and confluence? That's part of it. A lot of it has to do with the shortwave timing/degree of interaction/phasing upstream. I liked the Euro evolution at 12z. Very close to a good outcome. It will all change many times over the coming days ofc. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 19 minutes ago, CAPE said: What a friendly trend. We have 8 more dayzzzzzz it will be a coastal scraper soon. Congrats Norfolk 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Just your run of the mill 1076 high over Greenland. 4 2 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 34 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Gfs is farther south compared to 12 z Sooooo close to being a biggie for alot of us Bro I’m literally 50 miles east of the rain snow line in VA my neck of the woods (literally) That’s painful and hopeful to see. It’s 8 days out so it’ll probably be sunny that day. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 33 minutes ago, Ji said: it will be a coastal scraper soon. Congrats Norfolk Nina's do love the Carolinas and beaches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 57 minutes ago, CAPE said: What a friendly trend. We have 8 more dayzzzzzz Looking forward to tonights runs!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 JMA. Also on board with coastal idea... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 6 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Nina's do love the Carolinas and beaches I usually head to Rehoboth leading up to Christmas. Rooting for a scraper. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 4 Author Share Posted December 4 16 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: JMA. Also on board with coastal idea... This is the first time I’ve seen most models in agreement. They never were about dec 5-6 nor about dec 8-10 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 1 hour ago, Ji said: it will be a coastal scraper soon. Congrats Norfolk You're good. I'm leaving the morning of the 12th. You're welcome. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Looks even better just beyond this. Yes, Christmas week that you posted looks workable. Here are the following 2 weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Here is the Euro Weeklies 30 day period from December 20th through January 19th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: This is the first time I’ve seen most models in agreement. They never were about dec 5-6 nor about dec 8-10 Agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 This is the first time I’ve seen most models in agreement. They never were about dec 5-6 nor about dec 8-10They were in agreement for something wintry for Dec 10-13 a while back and they backed off 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 2 hours ago, TSSN+ said: Keep on ticking south I mean yea it is a significant move southeast and long leads is the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Here is the Euro Weeklies 30 day period from December 20th through January 19th.Matched the Jan cfs to a tee higginsI 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 2 minutes ago, Ji said: They were in agreement for something wintry for Dec 10-13 a while back and they backed off They all came back. And the same time... weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: They all came back. And the same time... weird That is typically when we get smacked for some reason, I feel good about this situation here and it feels different than the past few years. It's the big ones we see far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 The thread is here 4 8 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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