TSSN+ Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Euro is close to something good. Need a little more phase to pull more qpf into the cold air. Regardless drops like 1-3” for I95 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 ive seen many times where models have an idea for something in the long range(like a winter storm)...lose the idea..and then bring it back again as we get closer 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Euro is close to something good. Need a little more phase to pull more qpf into the cold air. Regardless drops like 1-3” for I95 Definitely an improvement!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 1 minute ago, Ji said: ive seen many times where models have an idea for something in the long range(like a winter storm)...lose the idea..and then bring it back again as we get closer Yep I remember Henry Margusity back when alot of us were in the accuweather forum back before this one. And Henry used to say when the models left an idea and came back to it,he said it's the ch cha cha of the models lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 4 minutes ago, Ji said: ive seen many times where models have an idea for something in the long range(like a winter storm)...lose the idea..and then bring it back again as we get closer Euro fantasy range also with the “heckuva way to run a blowtorch” arctic blast. 12z yesterday did that too. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro fantasy range also with the “heckuva way to run a blowtorch” arctic blast. 12z yesterday did that too. Don't pull me back in with hope... Too late, I'm back... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro fantasy range also with the “heckuva way to run a blowtorch” arctic blast. 12z yesterday did that too. i noticed that. that would setup us nicely for Christmas week lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 So far Wow what a difference 24 hours makes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Actually euro has a classic Miller A type look. Been a good while since we got one of those.. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 44 minutes ago, Ji said: ive seen many times where models have an idea for something in the long range(like a winter storm)...lose the idea..and then bring it back again as we get closer In all fairness I’m not quite sure this is even close to the same “winter storm” we were looking at previously. This is an entirely different wave compared to the old runs that showed something around the 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 FWIW weather bells Joe d Leo. Posted this.... just curious what ya all make of this for us in the east usa.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 How it feels watching model trends. 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 39 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Don't pull me back in with hope... Too late, I'm back... We all get pulled back in lol it's the nature of the weather beast!! Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 1 minute ago, Benjamn3 said: How it feels watching model trends. Lmaoooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 The source region is excellent!!! This could work if cold air to the northwest is progressive and the Atlantic ridge co-operates. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 2 hours ago, TSSN+ said: Squeak that little more se please lol 100-150 miles southeast is doable at this range this keeps my hopes alive along with the 6z Euro run from this morning. Also, with a Negative NAO peaking on or around December 10th and moving towards positive on December 15th it keeps me more interested. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Euro fantasy range also with the “heckuva way to run a blowtorch” arctic blast. 12z yesterday did that too. I've always thought that the Euro was a decent model. Let's roll with that one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 28 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: We all get pulled back in lol it's the nature of the weather beast!! Lol This is why I think the weenies will be insufferable this year if we bust in a way similar to 22-23 or even 16-17. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 15 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: This is why I think the weenies will be insufferable this year if we bust in a way similar to 22-23 or even 16-17. But why tho? If it doesn't work out just step away. Best thing I coulda done in 22-23. If it were to become clear that the pattern wasn't working, why go model run to model run? Don't torture yourself. Now of course, right now we're still trying to get the pulse of what this winter will be, so watching larger scale features and tendencies still has value for weenieism, lol But y'all, I'm telling ya...if the crappy sets in, block this and all model sites from your phone. Best way to deal with it. The less exposed you are to it, the better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Euro fantasy range also with the “heckuva way to run a blowtorch” arctic blast. 12z yesterday did that too. Seems like Dec is trying to show its hand but early season is always volatile. If the warm can truly gets kicked, confidence increases. So how does it snow? Probably something like the early Dec 2013 storm. A good fresh cold blast and a quick follower. Idk about the next 10 days. It could line up like that but we prob need a deeper carve in advance. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 A more detailed look at the Miller A from the euro.. im waiting on the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 On 12/3/2024 at 2:59 PM, WxUSAF said: If we get 50 days of winter that have BN temps, I’ll take the over on 1” of snow. NO? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Seems like Dec is trying to show its hand but early season is always volatile. If the warm can truly gets kicked, confidence increases. So how does it snow? Probably something like the early Dec 2013 storm. A good fresh cold blast and a quick follower. Idk about the next 10 days. It could line up like that but we prob need a deeper carve in advance. And for us that lived in DC, we got something but also rained…but basically once we flipped to January we rolled through March. Still my favorite winter season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said: This is why I think the weenies will be insufferable this year if we bust in a way similar to 22-23 or even 16-17. But it wouldn’t be a bust. Those are two of the top analogs so wouldn’t that be expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 From the plots of it I’ve see on Twitter, euro weeklies today emphatically say winter is coming back around Xmas. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: From the plots of it I’ve see on Twitter, euro weeklies today emphatically say winter is coming back around Xmas. Looks even better just beyond this. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 GFS looks to be even better than 12z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 8 minutes ago, Solution Man said: GFS looks to be even better than 12z Yeah it’s close. I do like seeing it super juiced-up. Whatever happens at least it’s more interesting that way lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 8 minutes ago, Solution Man said: GFS looks to be even better than 12z Yes even more rain 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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