December Medium/ Long Range

[StormyClearweather]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Sounds to me more like baseless hype than anything clearcut at least based on latest strat forecasts. Although this doesn’t mean it can’t occur, I don’t see any current clearcut indication for a SSW event later in Dec based on both the latest EPS and GEFS at 10 mb.

EPS: mean close to normal for zonal wind 2nd half of Dec/1st half of Jan

 

 

GEFS: zonal wind AN 2nd half of Dec and NN 1st week of Jan

It's a good thing we know that JB would never stoop to the level of hyping something without substance to boost the subs. 

Seriously though, I get why people post his takes on here, but do people really still follow and listen to him? 

[MillvilleWx]

I remember when I used to have a lot of respect for JB and I learned a ton when he was on Accuweather. Now he’s just a hype artist with a clear agenda. Sad 

[CAPE]

29 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

The big dump. The blizzard was a bust here. That week was wild. I ended up with almost 3 feet on the ground. I received 28.5" tieing the Nickerbocker storm. Then I received about 4" from the blizzard a few days later. 

Yeah it was better further east/NE. There was so much wind and drifting it was hard to measure here- plus there was already snow otg. My guess(plus looking at snowfall total maps) was at least 15" here.

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, CAPE said:

Yeah it was better further east/NE. There was so much wind and drifting it was hard to measure here- plus there was already snow otg. My guess(plus looking at snowfall total maps) was at least 15" here.

Makes sense. I approximately measured 19” in Carney, but man was it tough. 
 

Ended up with 51.5” between the two storms with a 4’ base in my backyard after all said and done. What a run 

[frd]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Sounds to me more like baseless hype than anything clearcut at least based on latest strat forecasts. Although this doesn’t mean it can’t occur, I don’t see any current clearcut indication for a SSW event later in Dec based on both the latest EPS and GEFS at 10 mb.

EPS: mean close to normal for zonal wind 2nd half of Dec/1st half of Jan

 

GEFS: zonal wind AN 2nd half of Dec and NN 1st week of Jan

 

 

 

 

As for the AO, it has been closer to normal, at times going negative.  I am more concerned with the Pac for our chances of cold and snow in the Mid.Atlantic.  

 

 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, StormyClearweather said:

It's a good thing we know that JB would never stoop to the level of hyping something without substance to boost the subs. 

Seriously though, I get why people post his takes on here, but do people really still follow and listen to him? 

 I’m quite confident that having JB as their prime long range forecaster still helps boost the number of Weather Bell subs. If only he’d keep his self-admitted E US winter cold bias from tarnishing his outlooks/comments. I do give him credit for a +2ish Nov-Mar forecast for the big NE cities this year, his warmest final winter forecast of at least the last 10 years and very likely longer. I don’t consider +2 a torch but rather just moderately AN. But for him it’s a torch even though +2 would be cooler than last winter. What he seems to be doing currently though is to downplay his own overall AN forecast with chances for cold in Jan (colder than his Jan forecast). That’s typical of his style due to some combo of weenieness and wanting to keep the subs from dropping.

[SnowGoose69]

56 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Sounds to me more like baseless hype than anything clearcut at least based on latest strat forecasts. Although this doesn’t mean it can’t occur, I don’t see any current clearcut indication for a SSW event later in Dec based on both the latest EPS and GEFS at 10 mb.

EPS: mean close to normal for zonal wind 2nd half of Dec/1st half of Jan

 

GEFS: zonal wind AN 2nd half of Dec and NN 1st week of Jan

As I believe one of the Mets said here yesterday we don't want it anyway.  It can sometimes mess with what may be a favorable setup by sending the PV to the wrong side of the globe.  I believe in 20-21 or 21-22 that happened and it did in Jan/Feb 2012 too, we were about to see a favorable shift with a -EPO forming over AK and then the massive SSW sent the PV to Europe.   Also near the solar max with this QBO phase SSWs are rare.  One did happen though in Feb/March 1989 despite similarly bad background states so they can sometimes occur near the solar max but I think they more frequently happen later in winter vs earlier.

[SnowGoose69]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

The EPS and CMC ens look ok just beyond mid month- still some semblance of an EPO ridge with cold air in our nearby source region. The 6z GEFS digs more of a trough into the WPO/EPO region, which would bring mild air into much of Canada and the US. It has been waffling from run to run though.

The last several cycles you see that D14-16 the GEPS/GEFS try to start moving the trof back into the Aleutians and building the ridge but the amount of members doing it is mixed so the signal is blunted on the mean.  For the first time the EPS showed it last night at D15-16 you see subtle building of the ridge over BC and Yukon.  As often happens the whole thing is probably delayed.  Now we see a chance for a storm at 190 hours whereas 3-4 days ago 260 hours looked like a totally broken down pattern, we might see the warmup range around 12/14-12/22 and the final week of the month looks more like now

[GaWx]

35 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

As I believe one of the Mets said here yesterday we don't want it anyway.  It can sometimes mess with what may be a favorable setup by sending the PV to the wrong side of the globe.  I believe in 20-21 or 21-22 that happened and it did in Jan/Feb 2012 too, we were about to see a favorable shift with a -EPO forming over AK and then the massive SSW sent the PV to Europe.   Also near the solar max with this QBO phase SSWs are rare.  One did happen though in Feb/March 1989 despite similarly bad background states so they can sometimes occur near the solar max but I think they more frequently happen later in winter vs earlier.

My own research of the last 65 winters found that the best chance for a major SSW is during El Niño/east QBO like last winter. Last winter had two. I’m hoping (not predicting) for El Niño/east QBO again next winter. The last four CANSIPS runs have been showing a Modoki Nino developing this summer fwiw.

 History says that if La Niña/west QBO like the current winter were to have a major SSW, it would likely occur late. And that’s a legit possibility from the data I studied.

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, StormyClearweather said:

It's a good thing we know that JB would never stoop to the level of hyping something without substance to boost the subs. 

Seriously though, I get why people post his takes on here, but do people really still follow and listen to him? 

I do. And honestly I have learned alot from his vids so far as when he explains patterns and the reason for  the way things operate i. The atmosphere..... minus the hype. He is  very smart. Been doing it for  45 years so he knows. I think he just  kinda wish casts a little for his area.. if that makes sense 

[Bob Chill]

Good grief. We're already talking strat warming? Lol. Considering our history of actual strat warming events over the last 10-15 years.... it's probably the last thing we want. 

I thought it was an unwritten rule that SSW talk is reserved for the final flailing gasp of air before we drown in a hopeless dumpster fire of winterless wonderlands 

Jokes aside. Watch the AO. A Dec avg below -1.0 is probably the clearest long range indicator we have of having a winter that...um...well... is actually a winter. 

Below -1.2 is nearly a lock that some acceptable snow and cold snow will make an appearance during JFM

[psuhoffman]

17 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

Good catch! I thought I might have forgot a year. 2/13 years with normal or above snow from 1980-1993. Brutal

Then....1993-1994, 1995-1996, 1999-2000, 2002-2003, 2005-2006, 2009-10, 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2015-16

All of these winters were very close to normal or above normal for the metro areas and some places saw considerably more. That's a crazy run of good fortune for this area. Resorting back to the mean. 60s and 70s were great, 80s and early 90s stunk, 50s stunk overall too. Nature of the beast. We'll have another storm run at some point. 

These cycles are the main drivers of our snowfall...but unfortunately within these cycles there is a clear diminishing trend.  The current bad cycle is worse than the previous one by about 20% and that good period in the 2000's was not as good as the previous time the Pacific and Atlantic both cooperated simultaneously in the 1960s.  The most troubling aspect of that period from 2000-2016 was that the center of the positive snowfall anomalies shifted north several hundred miles from where it was in previous similar periods...we were barely above average snowfall for that period while places like Philly to Boston were running at 150% or more of avg.  And not too far south of us actually were below avg for the period...

In short while there are still these up and down cycles we are getting dangerously close to the "you're just too far south for it to matter" line 

[WxUSAF]

Only thing I see trackable in the next 10 days is the follow up wave late next week. If we can get that cutter around the 10th to drag in some cold air and time the follow up wave correctly, could get something wintry.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Only thing I see trackable in the next 10 days is the follow up wave late next week. If we can get that cutter around the 10th to drag in some cold air and time the follow up wave correctly, could get something wintry.

Another game that hasn't worked much the last several years...Lol Seems like we don't do that kind of timing that well.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Good grief. We're already talking strat warming? Lol. Considering our history of actual strat warming events over the last 10-15 years.... it's probably the last thing we want. 

I thought it was an unwritten rule that SSW talk is reserved for the final flailing gasp of air before we drown in a hopeless dumpster fire of winterless wonderlands 

 JB’s the only forecaster I’ve read even just talking about a potential SSW. What got us started today is purely in response to a supposed SSW JB’s been talking about for late month. Our reaction has been to downplay it as mainly baseless hype, which I feel is a good thing to do for the wx bb community to try to suppress the hype early on. JB with his E US cold bias in winter is not surprisingly using it to hype a potential cold Jan, colder than his own non-cold Jan forecast. I think it’s sometimes good to call him out because he’s the master of hyping cold potential whether realistic or not as many readers here likely aren’t as knowledgeable about his cold bias (which recently even he’s openly admitted to).

[WEATHER53]

SSW is unproven as to effect for us 

Last years mid Jan Guarantee of a “rocking  Feb” was highly predicated  on a beneficial SSW -it never happened and in fact the opposite

ENSO isn’t even that reliable now.  -AO and -NAO still helps.

Mongolia is  out of blue and that gives me optimism 

[Terpeast]

Rather than a full blown SSW, we may have a reflection from a wave breaking event this month. Just not sure what the implications are. I’d have to dig more into it and see if it’s worthwhile posting more details.

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Rather than a full blown SSW, we may have a reflection from a wave breaking event this month. Just not sure what the implications are. I’d have to dig more into it. 

Can you explain a bit what a "wave breaking event' is in this context?

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Another game that hasn't worked much the last several years...Lol Seems like we don't do that kind of timing that well.

I got 3.8" last December from exactly that type of setup.  It's actually accounted for much of my snow the last 5 years...but most of them have not worked out for lower elevations.  I commented on this last December also...the track of that secondary frontal wave was actually perfect for 95, the heavier precip missed me to the east, and the mid levels were cold enough, but as has been the case several times lately the lower levels simply weren't cold enough to support snow.  This has happened a few times over the last several years.  There was another very obvious example in Feb 2021, perfect secondary frontal wave where the lower levels simply were too warm despite a perfect track.  I got 6" up here but that too the best precip missed me to the east but it was just rain because the boundary was just too warm...even up here it was 32-33 during the snow.  

We still get these setups often, it just hasn't been cold enough in the lower levels for them to be snow outside our higher elevations in this forum even when the situation works out from a synoptic setup in other ways.  

[winter_warlock]

 Something to keep an u on for  the Dec 12thto 14th timeliness

 Multiple members so definitely   a possible  storm on coast.. still 9 to 10 days out but something to watch!!.. temps can be worked out later

 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

SSW is unproven as to effect for us 

Last years mid Jan Guarantee of a “rocking  Feb” was highly predicated  on a beneficial SSW -it never happened and in fact the opposite

ENSO isn’t even that reliable now.  -AO and -NAO still helps.

Mongolia is  out of blue and that gives me optimism 

Agree with this... the -AO/NAO do still help, so long as we don't have some -3PNA countermanding it.  The fact is we have had a horribly god awful pacific several times that did offset and waste a great NAO.  Add in that two of our most recent snowy winters were EPO/PNA driven without much AO/NAO help and some have started to imply the NAO/AO are no longer that important.  But I don't believe there is much evidence of that, it's just the NAO/AO can no longer overcome a horribly hostile pacific anymore.  

[winter_warlock]

Euro weeklies showing. Cold in east  for next 30 days to january 1st

 

FWIW...

 

[Eskimo Joe]

^ Looks like a widespread 3 to 5 degrees below average. Nice.

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

^ Looks like a widespread 3 to 5 degrees below average. Nice.

 Yup ill take it!!!

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Yup I’ll take it!!!

Yes but like most of the analogs it’s a dry cold. The snow mean is really low and look at the control which has similar temps lol 

basically has us sitting at the midpoint of winter below avg temps and under 1” of snow to show for it. 

[TSSN+]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but like most of the analogs it’s a dry cold. The snow mean is really low and look at the control which has similar temps lol 

basically has us sitting at the midpoint of winter below avg temps and under 1” of snow to show for it. 

Give me the cold. Who cares what the snow map shows. Usually never right. Shows us getting like 30” sometimes and we get nothing so let it show nothing maybe we will get the opposite lol

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Give me the cold. Who cares what the snow map shows. Usually never right. Shows us getting like 30” sometimes and we get nothing so let it show nothing maybe we will get the opposite lol

Tend to agree in general-bring the cold. With a NS dominant flow regime though, the chances of cold and dry at our latitude are increased.

[WxUSAF]

If we get 50 days of winter that have BN temps, I’ll take the over on 1” of snow. 

[CAPE]

12z EPS for mid month has a -PNA, but it is transient verbatim.

A few days later the PNA is positive with a neutral EPO.

Cold remains in our source region and is on the move southeastward-

[katabatic]

Shaping up to be a pretty good storm out in the Boonies

In the mountains, blizzard conditions are becoming likely for most
areas along and west of the Allegheny Front. Very cold air and
a deep moisture connection to the Great Lakes will set the stage
for a potent snow squall event along the Allegheny Front.
Forecast snow amounts between Wednesday night and Thursday
morning are between 4 and 6 inches with potentially higher
amounts up to around 9 inches along the western-facing slopes
above 2500 feet. In most of the Alleghenies, winds likely gust
well above 35-40 mph. With an air mass this cold, the
snow/liquid ratios are going to be very high, leading to a fine,
powdery snow. This paired with the aforementioned wind gusts
could lead to whiteout conditions at times. Treacherous travel
conditions are likely in the mountains Thursday morning. Even
after snow ends, the blowing snow will make travel difficult at
best through Thursday night.