December Medium/ Long Range

[winter_warlock]

00z gfs looks different then 18z. But it'd now 174 hours away.  Will take  3 more days till it g ets a handle.. it's dec 2nd and storm won't be here till the 10th  lol 8 days out

[winter_warlock]

  Something  brewing on dec 12th. On gfs and cmc.  10 days out but still worth watching as the cold comes back 

[Ji]

Would much strong benefit  us or hurt us for getting snow and cold?

It depends on the phase. It could be really helpful in favorable phases and catastrophic in the bad phases

[snowmagnet]

Thoughts on Wednesday night into Thursday morning? High wind, snow showers, rain/snow mix brewing for the metro potentially according to LWX…

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z 3K NAM.... take what we can get.  Enjoy the Thursday flizzard....

[Terpeast]

Notice all models are now “trying” to keep the western ridge going in the medium range…

[CAPE]

24 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Notice all models are now “trying” to keep the western ridge going in the medium range…

The EPS and CMC ens look ok just beyond mid month- still some semblance of an EPO ridge with cold air in our nearby source region. The 6z GEFS digs more of a trough into the WPO/EPO region, which would bring mild air into much of Canada and the US. It has been waffling from run to run though.

[frd]

34 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The EPS and CMC ens look ok just beyond mid month- still some semblance of an EPO ridge with cold air in our nearby source region. The 6z GEFS digs more of a trough into the WPO/EPO region, which would bring mild air into much of Canada and the US. It has been waffling from run to run though.

If that happens you can kiss Jan good bye. Once the Western Canadian souce region is scoured of cold air it will take weeks for the entire process to reverse.  

Of course speculation, but persistance the last 5 to 7 years. 

Have to wee if Webb is correct about Jan. I could less about the-NAO and the -AO its all about the +PNA/ +TNH. 

 

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Notice all models are now “trying” to keep the western ridge going in the medium range…

Nice.  Hope it keeps going all winter!!

[TSSN+]

Ride the dry bus

[winter_warlock]

Well today makes  14 years  I been a member of AmericanWx...   so do I get a pin  or a certificate.. or maybe a check?  so i guess  that means for the last 14 years  ive been just as disappointed  in the models as you all have been lmaoooo!

On a side note..

 My car was running horribly this morning... then once I changed the channel on the radio that was playing that horrible Mariah Carey... my car ran alot better lol

[WxUSAF]

18 minutes ago, frd said:

If that happens you can kiss Jan good bye. Once the Western Canadian souce region is scoured of cold air it will take weeks for the entire process to reverse.  

Of course speculation, but persistance the last 5 to 7 years. 

Have to wee if Webb is correct about Jan. I could less about the-NAO and the -AO its all about the +PNA/ +TNH. 

 

I think a raging PAC jet crashing into western Canada is not likely. The trop PV over Hudson Bay will provide a ready cold air source. I don’t see Canada getting scoured out. 

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think a raging PAC jet crashing into western Canada is not likely. The trop PV over Hudson Bay will provide a ready cold air source. I don’t see Canada getting scoured out. 

 JB pushing the stratospheric warming  event later this month.. says that sets up a cold january.. we will see .. as knowledgeable as JB is he has alot of hype with him

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, frd said:

If that happens you can kiss Jan good bye. Once the Western Canadian souce region is scoured of cold air it will take weeks for the entire process to reverse.  

Of course speculation, but persistance the last 5 to 7 years. 

Have to wee if Webb is correct about Jan. I could less about the-NAO and the -AO its all about the +PNA/ +TNH. 

 

Eh it won't take that long especially if the pattern transitions back to an amped EPO ridge (combined with the TPV near Hudson). Establishes a flow from the Polar regions.

[CAPE]

Fwiw because the GEFS has been indecisive about the upcoming pattern.

@frd

This-

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 JB pushing the stratospheric warming  event later this month.. says that sets up a cold january.. we will see .. as knowledgeable as JB is he has alot of hype with him

JB a lot of hype??? Nnooooooo

 

I don’t think we want a SSW this winter. Or at least not now. From what I’ve read, SSWs in this QBO and ENSO phase are more likely to make Siberia colder than us. They’re a gamble even in favorable conditions and odds are more stacked against favoring our hemisphere this year. Maybe we need a Hail Mary type ssw in early February to keep some winter going into March. 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

JB a lot of hype??? Nnooooooo

 

I don’t think we want a SSW this winter. Or at least not now. From what I’ve read, SSWs in this QBO and ENSO phase are more likely to make Siberia colder than us. They’re a gamble even in favorable conditions and odds are more stacked against favoring our hemisphere this year. Maybe we need a Hail Mary type ssw in early February to keep some winter going into March. 

Ahh ok I didn't know that. Ty bro!!!

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Fwiw because the GEFS has been indecisive about the upcoming pattern.

@frd

This-

GEFSX and euro weeklies both transition back to this sort of look pretty quickly. Trough doesn’t seem to get stuck out west. 

[frd]

23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Fwiw because the GEFS has been indecisive about the upcoming pattern.

@frd

This-

 

By that time we here in the lowlands are in a better climo spot.  

[TowsonWeather]

13 hours ago, mappy said:

Until the 12/19 repeat I beg for every winter lol

God that was a great storm.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

God that was a great storm.

Especially since it occurred in December. We all know how unusual it is to get even a moderate event that early.

[dailylurker]

3 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

God that was a great storm.

Personally I think Feb 2010 was the GOAT storm for AA County.

[mappy]

16 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

God that was a great storm.

The best storm. 

[winter_warlock]

31 minutes ago, frd said:

 

By that time we here in the lowlands are in a better climo spot.  

Agreed!!

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Personally I think Feb 2010 was the GOAT storm for AA County.

Which one? Second one was a legit blizzard.

[winter_warlock]

16 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Personally I think Feb 2010 was the GOAT storm for AA County.

O think the week of feb 4th to Feb 12th 2010 was a goat week. I got nearly 45 inches of snow that week. From the 2 blizzards

[winter_warlock]

22 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said:

God that was a great storm.

Yes it was. I got 20 inches on 19th. And it insured we'd all have a white christmas

[dailylurker]

Just now, CAPE said:

Which one? Second one was a legit blizzard.

The big dump. The blizzard was a bust here. That week was wild. I ended up with almost 3 feet on the ground. I received 28.5" tieing the Nickerbocker storm. Then I received about 4" from the blizzard a few days later. 

[dailylurker]

January 25, 2000 was one of my favorite storms. Only 22" but it fell in like 14 hours. The rates were like being in a very intense lake effect snow band. I recorded over 4" in one hour along with really weird darkness like a thunderstorm. Very wild event. 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, winter_warlock said:

 JB pushing the stratospheric warming  event later this month.. says that sets up a cold january.. we will see .. as knowledgeable as JB is he has alot of hype with him

 Sounds to me more like baseless hype than anything clearcut at least based on latest strat forecasts. Although this doesn’t mean it can’t occur, I don’t see any current clearcut indication for a SSW event later in Dec based on both the latest EPS and GEFS at 10 mb.

EPS: mean close to normal for zonal wind 2nd half of Dec/1st half of Jan

 

GEFS: zonal wind AN 2nd half of Dec and NN 1st week of Jan