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December Medium/ Long Range

Terpeast

By Terpeast,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill
Bob Chill

Sup

WxUSAF
WxUSAF

Yeah that looks nice. GEFS pretty similar, just less intense in the height anomalies. Both show us BN for the duration and precip bumps up starting late next week. 

brooklynwx99
brooklynwx99

the timeframe around the 5th looks conducive for something bigger regionwide... anomalous 50/50, a decaying block over the Davis Strait, and persistent cross-polar flow. combine with an active STJ for

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2024 at 12:10 PM, Terpeast said:

Notice all models are now “trying” to keep the western ridge going in the medium range…

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The EPS and CMC ens look ok just beyond mid month- still some semblance of an EPO ridge with cold air in our nearby source region. The 6z GEFS digs more of a trough into the WPO/EPO region, which would bring mild air into much of Canada and the US. It has been waffling from run to run though.

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2024 at 12:41 PM, CAPE said:

The EPS and CMC ens look ok just beyond mid month- still some semblance of an EPO ridge with cold air in our nearby source region. The 6z GEFS digs more of a trough into the WPO/EPO region, which would bring mild air into much of Canada and the US. It has been waffling from run to run though.

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If that happens you can kiss Jan good bye. Once the Western Canadian souce region is scoured of cold air it will take weeks for the entire process to reverse.  

Of course speculation, but persistance the last 5 to 7 years. 

Have to wee if Webb is correct about Jan. I could less about the-NAO and the -AO its all about the +PNA/ +TNH. 

 

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winter_warlock

winter_warlock

Posted
Posted

Well today makes  14 years  I been a member of AmericanWx...   so do I get a pin  or a certificate.. or maybe a check? :lol::lol::lol: so i guess  that means for the last 14 years  ive been just as disappointed  in the models as you all have been lmaoooo!:lol::lol:

On a side note..

 My car was running horribly this morning... then once I changed the channel on the radio that was playing that horrible Mariah Carey... my car ran alot better lol

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2024 at 1:22 PM, frd said:

If that happens you can kiss Jan good bye. Once the Western Canadian souce region is scoured of cold air it will take weeks for the entire process to reverse.  

Of course speculation, but persistance the last 5 to 7 years. 

Have to wee if Webb is correct about Jan. I could less about the-NAO and the -AO its all about the +PNA/ +TNH. 

 

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I think a raging PAC jet crashing into western Canada is not likely. The trop PV over Hudson Bay will provide a ready cold air source. I don’t see Canada getting scoured out. 

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winter_warlock

winter_warlock

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2024 at 1:41 PM, WxUSAF said:

I think a raging PAC jet crashing into western Canada is not likely. The trop PV over Hudson Bay will provide a ready cold air source. I don’t see Canada getting scoured out. 

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 JB pushing the stratospheric warming  event later this month.. says that sets up a cold january.. we will see .. as knowledgeable as JB is he has alot of hype with him

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2024 at 1:22 PM, frd said:

If that happens you can kiss Jan good bye. Once the Western Canadian souce region is scoured of cold air it will take weeks for the entire process to reverse.  

Of course speculation, but persistance the last 5 to 7 years. 

Have to wee if Webb is correct about Jan. I could less about the-NAO and the -AO its all about the +PNA/ +TNH. 

 

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Eh it won't take that long especially if the pattern transitions back to an amped EPO ridge (combined with the TPV near Hudson). Establishes a flow from the Polar regions.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2024 at 1:48 PM, winter_warlock said:

 JB pushing the stratospheric warming  event later this month.. says that sets up a cold january.. we will see .. as knowledgeable as JB is he has alot of hype with him

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JB a lot of hype??? Nnooooooo:arrowhead:

 

I don’t think we want a SSW this winter. Or at least not now. From what I’ve read, SSWs in this QBO and ENSO phase are more likely to make Siberia colder than us. They’re a gamble even in favorable conditions and odds are more stacked against favoring our hemisphere this year. Maybe we need a Hail Mary type ssw in early February to keep some winter going into March. 

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winter_warlock

winter_warlock

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2024 at 1:56 PM, WxUSAF said:

JB a lot of hype??? Nnooooooo:arrowhead:

 

I don’t think we want a SSW this winter. Or at least not now. From what I’ve read, SSWs in this QBO and ENSO phase are more likely to make Siberia colder than us. They’re a gamble even in favorable conditions and odds are more stacked against favoring our hemisphere this year. Maybe we need a Hail Mary type ssw in early February to keep some winter going into March. 

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Ahh ok I didn't know that. Ty bro!!!

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dailylurker

dailylurker

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2024 at 2:52 PM, CAPE said:

Which one? Second one was a legit blizzard.

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The big dump. The blizzard was a bust here. That week was wild. I ended up with almost 3 feet on the ground. I received 28.5" tieing the Nickerbocker storm. Then I received about 4" from the blizzard a few days later. 

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2024 at 1:48 PM, winter_warlock said:

 JB pushing the stratospheric warming  event later this month.. says that sets up a cold january.. we will see .. as knowledgeable as JB is he has alot of hype with him

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 Sounds to me more like baseless hype than anything clearcut at least based on latest strat forecasts. Although this doesn’t mean it can’t occur, I don’t see any current clearcut indication for a SSW event later in Dec based on both the latest EPS and GEFS at 10 mb.

EPS: mean close to normal for zonal wind 2nd half of Dec/1st half of Jan

IMG_0931.png.a672e219d639f8b392855b2c06f6febc.png

 

GEFS: zonal wind AN 2nd half of Dec and NN 1st week of Jan

IMG_0930.thumb.png.736dde7c0403e84e9e079a6666bacd58.png

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StormyClearweather

StormyClearweather

Posted
Posted
  On 12/3/2024 at 3:11 PM, GaWx said:

 Sounds to me more like baseless hype than anything clearcut at least based on latest strat forecasts. Although this doesn’t mean it can’t occur, I don’t see any current clearcut indication for a SSW event later in Dec based on both the latest EPS and GEFS at 10 mb.

EPS: mean close to normal for zonal wind 2nd half of Dec/1st half of Jan

 

 

GEFS: zonal wind AN 2nd half of Dec and NN 1st week of Jan

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It's a good thing we know that JB would never stoop to the level of hyping something without substance to boost the subs. 

Seriously though, I get why people post his takes on here, but do people really still follow and listen to him? 

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