winter_warlock Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 00z gfs looks different then 18z. But it'd now 174 hours away. Will take 3 more days till it g ets a handle.. it's dec 2nd and storm won't be here till the 10th lol 8 days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Something brewing on dec 12th. On gfs and cmc. 10 days out but still worth watching as the cold comes back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Would much strong benefit us or hurt us for getting snow and cold?It depends on the phase. It could be really helpful in favorable phases and catastrophic in the bad phases 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Thoughts on Wednesday night into Thursday morning? High wind, snow showers, rain/snow mix brewing for the metro potentially according to LWX… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 WB 6Z 3K NAM.... take what we can get. Enjoy the Thursday flizzard.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 3 Author Share Posted December 3 Notice all models are now “trying” to keep the western ridge going in the medium range… 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 24 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Notice all models are now “trying” to keep the western ridge going in the medium range… The EPS and CMC ens look ok just beyond mid month- still some semblance of an EPO ridge with cold air in our nearby source region. The 6z GEFS digs more of a trough into the WPO/EPO region, which would bring mild air into much of Canada and the US. It has been waffling from run to run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 34 minutes ago, CAPE said: The EPS and CMC ens look ok just beyond mid month- still some semblance of an EPO ridge with cold air in our nearby source region. The 6z GEFS digs more of a trough into the WPO/EPO region, which would bring mild air into much of Canada and the US. It has been waffling from run to run though. If that happens you can kiss Jan good bye. Once the Western Canadian souce region is scoured of cold air it will take weeks for the entire process to reverse. Of course speculation, but persistance the last 5 to 7 years. Have to wee if Webb is correct about Jan. I could less about the-NAO and the -AO its all about the +PNA/ +TNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Notice all models are now “trying” to keep the western ridge going in the medium range… Nice. Hope it keeps going all winter!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Ride the dry bus 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Well today makes 14 years I been a member of AmericanWx... so do I get a pin or a certificate.. or maybe a check? so i guess that means for the last 14 years ive been just as disappointed in the models as you all have been lmaoooo! On a side note.. My car was running horribly this morning... then once I changed the channel on the radio that was playing that horrible Mariah Carey... my car ran alot better lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 18 minutes ago, frd said: If that happens you can kiss Jan good bye. Once the Western Canadian souce region is scoured of cold air it will take weeks for the entire process to reverse. Of course speculation, but persistance the last 5 to 7 years. Have to wee if Webb is correct about Jan. I could less about the-NAO and the -AO its all about the +PNA/ +TNH. I think a raging PAC jet crashing into western Canada is not likely. The trop PV over Hudson Bay will provide a ready cold air source. I don’t see Canada getting scoured out. 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I think a raging PAC jet crashing into western Canada is not likely. The trop PV over Hudson Bay will provide a ready cold air source. I don’t see Canada getting scoured out. JB pushing the stratospheric warming event later this month.. says that sets up a cold january.. we will see .. as knowledgeable as JB is he has alot of hype with him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 20 minutes ago, frd said: If that happens you can kiss Jan good bye. Once the Western Canadian souce region is scoured of cold air it will take weeks for the entire process to reverse. Of course speculation, but persistance the last 5 to 7 years. Have to wee if Webb is correct about Jan. I could less about the-NAO and the -AO its all about the +PNA/ +TNH. Eh it won't take that long especially if the pattern transitions back to an amped EPO ridge (combined with the TPV near Hudson). Establishes a flow from the Polar regions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Fwiw because the GEFS has been indecisive about the upcoming pattern. @frd This- 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 5 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: JB pushing the stratospheric warming event later this month.. says that sets up a cold january.. we will see .. as knowledgeable as JB is he has alot of hype with him JB a lot of hype??? Nnooooooo I don’t think we want a SSW this winter. Or at least not now. From what I’ve read, SSWs in this QBO and ENSO phase are more likely to make Siberia colder than us. They’re a gamble even in favorable conditions and odds are more stacked against favoring our hemisphere this year. Maybe we need a Hail Mary type ssw in early February to keep some winter going into March. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Just now, WxUSAF said: JB a lot of hype??? Nnooooooo I don’t think we want a SSW this winter. Or at least not now. From what I’ve read, SSWs in this QBO and ENSO phase are more likely to make Siberia colder than us. They’re a gamble even in favorable conditions and odds are more stacked against favoring our hemisphere this year. Maybe we need a Hail Mary type ssw in early February to keep some winter going into March. Ahh ok I didn't know that. Ty bro!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Fwiw because the GEFS has been indecisive about the upcoming pattern. @frd This- GEFSX and euro weeklies both transition back to this sort of look pretty quickly. Trough doesn’t seem to get stuck out west. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 23 minutes ago, CAPE said: Fwiw because the GEFS has been indecisive about the upcoming pattern. @frd This- By that time we here in the lowlands are in a better climo spot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 13 hours ago, mappy said: Until the 12/19 repeat I beg for every winter lol God that was a great storm. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 2 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: God that was a great storm. Especially since it occurred in December. We all know how unusual it is to get even a moderate event that early. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 3 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: God that was a great storm. Personally I think Feb 2010 was the GOAT storm for AA County. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 16 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: God that was a great storm. The best storm. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 31 minutes ago, frd said: By that time we here in the lowlands are in a better climo spot. Agreed!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 15 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Personally I think Feb 2010 was the GOAT storm for AA County. Which one? Second one was a legit blizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 16 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Personally I think Feb 2010 was the GOAT storm for AA County. O think the week of feb 4th to Feb 12th 2010 was a goat week. I got nearly 45 inches of snow that week. From the 2 blizzards 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 22 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: God that was a great storm. Yes it was. I got 20 inches on 19th. And it insured we'd all have a white christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Just now, CAPE said: Which one? Second one was a legit blizzard. The big dump. The blizzard was a bust here. That week was wild. I ended up with almost 3 feet on the ground. I received 28.5" tieing the Nickerbocker storm. Then I received about 4" from the blizzard a few days later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 January 25, 2000 was one of my favorite storms. Only 22" but it fell in like 14 hours. The rates were like being in a very intense lake effect snow band. I recorded over 4" in one hour along with really weird darkness like a thunderstorm. Very wild event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 1 hour ago, winter_warlock said: JB pushing the stratospheric warming event later this month.. says that sets up a cold january.. we will see .. as knowledgeable as JB is he has alot of hype with him Sounds to me more like baseless hype than anything clearcut at least based on latest strat forecasts. Although this doesn’t mean it can’t occur, I don’t see any current clearcut indication for a SSW event later in Dec based on both the latest EPS and GEFS at 10 mb. EPS: mean close to normal for zonal wind 2nd half of Dec/1st half of Jan GEFS: zonal wind AN 2nd half of Dec and NN 1st week of Jan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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