December Medium/ Long Range

[poolz1]

0z GEFS and Can ens show the Pac jet strengthening again toward the end of their runs with the trough pushing east.  EPS not as much.  Just anecdotal but it seems like the GEFS have been more reliable in the 10-15 than the EPS here lately. 

[Weather Will]

10 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Thought the strat PV is staying strong for the foreseeable future. Got any new data on that? 

And a strat warm is no guarantee of a cold outbreak here. It could spill to the other side or to Europe. We better hope that EPO stays negative if we get a strat warm.

JB posted this map.  In a video stated this forecasting method worked last year.  He acknowledges no forecast  of wind reversal at 10MB at this time.

[CAPE]

6z GEFS for the 8th. Still worth keeping an eye on. 

[87storms]

0z Euro looks like cutter-ville.  Same issue we've been dealing with the last few years.

[TSSN+]

7 minutes ago, 87storms said:

0z Euro looks like cutter-ville.  Same issue we've been dealing with the last few years.

Come to expect it. Gfs is more of the same. Winters ain’t like they used to be. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Come to expect it. Gfs is more of the same. Winters ain’t like they used to be. 

I'll be honest...my primary tracking interest when I first look at guidance any given run is for where I am going to be at a particular point in winter (Vermont next weekend, Revelstoke BC around New Years) not here.  

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Come to expect it. Gfs is more of the same. Winters ain’t like they used to be. 

With this weekend chance seemingly falling through, we might have to wait awhile before our next track able period. Not a total shit the blinds period ahead, but definitely a “lower the blinds” time.

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'll be honest...my primary tracking interest when I first look at guidance any given run is for where I am going to be at a particular point in winter (Vermont next weekend, Revelstoke BC around New Years) not here.  

Same. I'm staying within a few hours drive. Except in January. I'm eying Lake Placid. My family use to go there when I was a kid. I love that area. 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

With this weekend chance seemingly falling through, we might have to wait awhile before our next track able period. Not a total shit the blinds period ahead, but definitely a “lower the blinds” time.

I keep the blinds closed, take a peak here and there but usually what I see is ugly so back shut they go haha. We need a really good winter to get to mood going again. It’s just so bad anymore it’s sad. I remember back when I was a kid there was always snow around Christmas. Now it’s like 80.

[IronTy]

7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Come to expect it. Gfs is more of the same. Winters ain’t like they used to be. 

I'm trying to stay positive but persistence pays off and it's been persistently warm and dry.   I'm starting to accept that we need something major to come along and just completely reshuffle the deck.  Something big like Yellowstone or a meteor impact.   

[Maestrobjwa]

25 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I keep the blinds closed, take a peak here and there but usually what I see is ugly so back shut they go haha. We need a really good winter to get to mood going again. It’s just so bad anymore it’s sad. I remember back when I was a kid there was always snow around Christmas. Now it’s like 80.

Always snow around Christmas where? Here? Lol We only had like two White Christmases at BWI in recorded history. That was never really a climo staple around here.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Always snow around Christmas where? Here? Lol We only had like two White Christmases at BWI in recorded history. That was never really a climo staple around here.

I said snow around Christmas not a white Christmas. But yes when I lived in Frederick county. 

[ravensrule]

57 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

With this weekend chance seemingly falling through, we might have to wait awhile before our next track able period. Not a total shit the blinds period ahead, but definitely a “lower the blinds” time.

I'm not sure if we want to see in to your bedroom anyway. 

[dallen7908]

EPS 50th PCTL snow accumulation (10:1) over the next 10-days.   Potentially good news or perhaps climatology for those tracking destinations  in upstate NY and northern New England.   As in most years, we have to wait a bit longer here.  The average date of the first measurable snow (1991-2020) where most of us live ranges from December 16 (Baltimore) to December 22 (DC). 

 

[pazzo83]

30 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Always snow around Christmas where? Here? Lol We only had like two White Christmases at BWI in recorded history. That was never really a climo staple around here.

snow used to be fairly common in December west of 95 / along the I-81 corridor.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I'll be honest...my primary tracking interest when I first look at guidance any given run is for where I am going to be at a particular point in winter (Vermont next weekend, Revelstoke BC around New Years) not here.  

So does that mean you will be cooking up a huge western trough for New Years in your underground weather lab?

[yoda]

15 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

snow used to be fairly common in December west of 95 / along the I-81 corridor.

[Gollum] What is snow precious? [/Gollum]

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, pazzo83 said:

snow used to be fairly common in December west of 95 / along the I-81 corridor.

I can absolutely understand the anxiety in the annual winter long range threads. Each year our window for any sensible winter gets smaller and smaller it seems.

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I can absolutely understand the anxiety in the annual winter long range threads. Each year our window for any sensible winter gets smaller and smaller it seems.

We are vets at this though (most of us here) and know the drill....something shows up on an op at range early in the season (mid nov-mid dec) and when it doesn't verify ppl start saying we wasted half the winter etc. When in actuality, anything prior to Jan 1 really is a bonus along the i95 corridor. Just because ppl remember it snowing once or twice on Dec 5 as a kid, for example, that really isn't the norm. Never has been. Are total seasonal averages down past decade or so? Sure. But until the can gets kicked while in prime climo, there souldnt be cause for alarm yet on the winter.

[stormy]

2 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

snow used to be fairly common in December west of 95 / along the I-81 corridor.

I will give everyone a blast at yesteryear snowstorms in December very soon.

White Christmas????   Would you believe 3 big-time in 7 years??????     

[Ji]

I thought the weeklies looked pretty good for Christmas/Late Dec through Mid January and perhaps beyond...

[WxUSAF]

Pretty big disparity for the North Pac across the ensembles after D10. GEFS completely loses the -EPO ridging. This is only in today’s runs, yesterday retained it. GEPS and EPS keep it going strong and maintain ridging over the pole as well. 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

I thought the weeklies looked pretty good for Christmas/Late Dec through Mid January and perhaps beyond...

GEFS and EPS while in lockstep with the mid-month moderation, they diverge because EPS wants to maintain -EPO the rest of the month and keep cold air nearby, while the GFS flattens the Alaska ridge a bit giving NW US/SW Canada less cold.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I can absolutely understand the anxiety in the annual winter long range threads. Each year our window for any sensible winter gets smaller and smaller it seems.

I’ll keep saying until proven wrong: the metro/airport areas can no longer get significant snow outside of January.

[Ji]

18z gfs gets moisture in before all the cold departs

[NorthArlington101]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

18z gfs gets moisture in before all the cold departs

Ice storm would be a funny way for this one to end up

[cbmclean]

32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Pretty big disparity for the North Pac across the ensembles after D10. GEFS completely loses the -EPO ridging. This is only in today’s runs, yesterday retained it. GEPS and EPS keep it going strong and maintain ridging over the pole as well. 

 

32 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

GEFS and EPS while in lockstep with the mid-month moderation, they diverge because EPS wants to maintain -EPO the rest of the month and keep cold air nearby, while the GFS flattens the Alaska ridge a bit giving NW US/SW Canada less cold.

I have seen several people opine lately that the GFS/GEFS has been "handling" the Pacific better lately.  I'm not sure how to verify that one way or the other but I hope they're wrong.

Meanwhile I have been paying close attention to Eric Webb's twitter feed.  He has been on the side of expecting continued -EPO/+TPH so I am hoping he is right in that respect.  Goodness knows that he was right more often than not when naysaying the hoped-for snowy Nino last year (and also the February torch in 2023).  

[MillvilleWx]

28 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I’ll keep saying until proven wrong: the metro/airport areas can no longer get significant snow outside of January.

They can absolutely still get it in February. The lack of snow right now is in part to a really terrible string of QBO/MJO/PDO luck. We've been in a trifecta of pure puke when it comes to a relatively good pattern and that had major feedback on other indices as well. We've really only been in it for 8-9 years too, so we might have more to go. This was pretty much the case in the 80s into the early 90s too. We didn't have too many snowy winters that run, outside like '83 where one storm really made all the difference. PDO is a bear because it can last so damn long. Just have to let it play out. 

[NorthArlington101]

33 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I’ll keep saying until proven wrong: the metro/airport areas can no longer get significant snow outside of January.

I'd amend this to before January. Feel like we've got a better shot in March than December. Maybe even a better shot in April than November.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

They can absolutely still get it in February. The lack of snow right now is in part to a really terrible string of QBO/MJO/PDO luck. We've been in a trifecta of pure puke when it comes to a relatively good pattern and that had major feedback on other indices as well. We've really only been in it for 8-9 years too, so we might have more to go. This was pretty much the case in the 80s into the early 90s too. We didn't have too many snowy winters that run, outside like '83 where one storm really made all the difference. PDO is a bear because it can last so damn long. Just have to let it play out. 

Don't forget '87