Terpeast Posted December 1 Author Share Posted December 1 I noticed the GFS ensembles trended weaker with the SW energy and this is becoming a wave almost purely driven by the NS. New run: Old run from 3 days ago: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Man, when was the last time we got a proper noreaster around here. I'm not even talking snow - even one with just rain? seems like when I first moved out here in 2004 we got them regularly. They are pretty rare nowadays. maybe it's just confirmation bias. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 16 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I noticed the GFS ensembles trended weaker with the SW energy and this is becoming a wave almost purely driven by the NS. New run: Old run from 3 days ago: Is this a good or bad thing? Tbh, I don't need a huge storm... a simple 2-4 would do for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 1 Author Share Posted December 1 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Is this a good or bad thing? Tbh, I don't need a huge storm... a simple 2-4 would do for me Hard to say. Some members still show a dec 8 wave, at which time we have the cold air to support snow. But how strong it is, and whether it’s even going to play out or get swallowed up by stronger energy out west, is still TBD. Unfortunately it’s been trending the wrong way for several days now. The stronger system could potentially be a Midwest low, with coastal redevelopment. Best to hope for with that system is we have enough cold air damming to keep up the potential for a front end thump before changeover. Not loving the ice storm scenario, though. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 1 hour ago, high risk said: I appreciate what you're trying to say here, and you were very much on the right track in saying that a small error at the start can lead to a massive error downstream 10 days later. But you can't design a model like the GFS with "bumpers". You can absolutely mitigate extreme solutions with bias-corrected, calibrated products, but the actual model solutions are what the model integration leads to. Thanks for the clarification. By "bumpers" I meant the literal way the physics are implemented in the model, such as removing/correcting for known biases based on analysis of prior versions of a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 45 minutes ago, RedSky said: How much kitchen sink for Philly? Now minus the kitchen sink actually I like this look better for the fact we have a cold high up north introducing the cold air damming situation which is what we need with a NNE wind the surface blocking the warming off the ocean all about placement and timing of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 4 minutes ago, TSG said: Thanks for the clarification. By "bumpers" I meant the literal way the physics are implemented in the model, such as removing/correcting for known biases based on analysis of prior versions of a model. One of my weather textbooks talks about how sensitive long range modeling is to any perturbation in conditions. I can't remember which model it was, but one they discuss how even running the model twice in a row with the exact same starting conditions produced wildly different results just due to a difference in rounding of decimal places at a single calculation between runs. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 1 hour ago, IronTy said: One of my weather textbooks talks about how sensitive long range modeling is to any perturbation in conditions. I can't remember which model it was, but one they discuss how even running the model twice in a row with the exact same starting conditions produced wildly different results just due to a difference in rounding of decimal places at a single calculation between runs. This is also mentioned in the Northeast Snowstorms books by Kocin and Uccellini. Some of our biggest "surprise" winter events were not detected until we got inside D4. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 1 Author Share Posted December 1 12z Euro starting to latch onto a 500mb s/w on 12/7-8. Decent vort pass over us. Nothing on the surface yet, but it's a change from the last run. After that, the 12/11 system cuts to the lakes. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: This is also mentioned in the Northeast Snowstorms books by Kocin and Uccellini. Some of our biggest "surprise" winter events were not detected until we got inside D4. As for some models an example of this was January 7th, 1996, up here in Philadelphia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 10 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: As for some models an example of this was January 7th, 1996, up here in Philadelphia. Actually that is not true LC who was the TV met on I believe Chanel 17 sniffed this out a full week in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 2 minutes ago, bigtenfan said: Actually that is not true LC who was the TV met on I believe Chanel 17 sniffed this out a full week in advance Yes, as I said some models or Mets... because one local met in Philly who went to Mexico on a trip was calling for 2-4" two days before the storm was coming.... Yes, some Mets Dave Roberts WPVI and others had this pegged a week out. I suppose the met then calling for 2-4" wanted to be different then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 22 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: As for some models an example of this was January 7th, 1996, up here in Philadelphia. Yup. All hail The King™ of snow storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 5 hours ago, Ji said: 2007 or 1993 Well I live outside the baltimore beltway but I remember the whole county getting a major ice storm in Feb of 2007 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: This is also mentioned in the Northeast Snowstorms books by Kocin and Uccellini. Some of our biggest "surprise" winter events were not detected until we got inside D4. I have the one by Paul Kocin. It's the best!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 4 hours ago, Terpeast said: I noticed the GFS ensembles trended weaker with the SW energy and this is becoming a wave almost purely driven by the NS. New run: Old run from 3 days ago: Looks like trough is in a better spot for us also on the newer run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 18z gfs is just fugly lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 2 Author Share Posted December 2 Carver’s Gap just posted euro weeklies in the TN forum. Not a lot to complain about… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 36 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: 18z gfs is just fugly lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 With our December snow chances on life support, WB's JB sees a stratwarm later this month that will cause an arctic outbreak in mid January... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: With our December snow chances on life support, WB's JB sees a stratwarm later this month that will cause an arctic outbreak in mid January... It’s December 1st, how are you saying they’re on life support? 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 31 minutes ago, nj2va said: It’s December 1st, how are you saying they’re on life support? Cause it’s December. It’s always on life support. Lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 2 Author Share Posted December 2 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: With our December snow chances on life support, WB's JB sees a stratwarm later this month that will cause an arctic outbreak in mid January... Thought the strat PV is staying strong for the foreseeable future. Got any new data on that? And a strat warm is no guarantee of a cold outbreak here. It could spill to the other side or to Europe. We better hope that EPO stays negative if we get a strat warm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 3 hours ago, winter_warlock said: Well I live outside the baltimore beltway but I remember the whole county getting a major ice storm in Feb of 2007 In most of FFCO that storm was a sleet fest. about 6 inches of it. Took place most of 13 Feb and overnight into the morning of 14 Feb. Will never forget it. My family and I moved to Bangkok that morning. IAD was closed but we still had to check out of our hotel in Tysons and take our chances. Eventually IAD opened and our flight to Tokyo was the first international flight to depart, albeit 2 hours late, which meant we missed our connecting flight from NRT to BKK. It was hell getting a taxi (van) to pick us up at the Intercon big enough to accommodate the three of us and our 8 bags. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 4 hours ago, bigtenfan said: Actually that is not true LC who was the TV met on I believe Chanel 17 sniffed this out a full week in advance Larry. Nice man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 even when the jet retracts, the lingering AK ridging will keep Arctic air in Canada and in the western and central US. it’s definitely AN for a bit, but it’s no torch 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: even when the jet retracts, the lingering AK ridging will keep Arctic air in Canada and in the western and central US. it’s definitely AN for a bit, but it’s no torch I think that lil warm up will be short lived and cold comes back later in december.. unless I'm reading data wrong lol my wife says I'm wrong alot so... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 Now the 0z GFS has it raining up to the US/Canada border for the Dec 8th storm. Quite a little model shift in the last 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Now the 0z GFS has it raining up to the US/Canada border for the Dec 8th storm. Quite a little model shift in the last 2 days. Gfs is goofy 7 to 8 days out lo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 24 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Gfs is goofy 7 to 8 days out lo Even for that range, it's a massive shift. They had an army of 1030's mb High pressures from western Canada to Maine 2 days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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