December Medium/ Long Range

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Amazing how we had 1030s mb Highs on the US/Canada border yesterday, now today there is a sub-1000mb low in Wisconsin

[Ji]

Would of been a blizzard if that sw came east

Maybe a few days later?

[Rhino16]

Is it about to pull that double sw combining thing again just later?

[Ji]

Cold air is gone by the 9th on ggem and gfs

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, Rhino16 said:

Is it about to pull that double sw combining thing again just later?

563dm heights in DC out ahead of it. 

[Ji]

What a stupid hobby

[Ji]

We going back to this cold and dry followed by rain back to cold shite?

[Ji]

This winter is cooked. It’s played its cards already and we lose again

[Heisy]

Here is 6z gfs from last night vs tonight’s 00z run. We lost the really good 50/50





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[Heisy]

This winter is cooked. It’s played its cards already and we lose again

Quick nostalgia… My greatest memory of a snowstorm run up was the march 4-6 2001 debacle. Yeah it was a bust but those model runs and you and Nor’easter posting about it were what weenie dreams were made of.

I remember texting you on AIM the morning of the December 30 2000 bust

Feels like it’s been ages since we had an event get better from day 7-9 inward. I guess because it has been


.

[cbmclean]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

We going back to this cold and dry followed by rain back to cold shite?

Yes.

[Jebman]

Its going to stay cold for a few weeks in the Mid Atlantic, and there are going to be many chances to maximize snow potential. Tell Bob Chill to get all those brobdingnagian Faces ready! He's gonna need them!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It looks like the GFS wants to go back to -PNA in the long range. Not currently supported by its ensembles, so we'll see how that goes.

[winter_warlock]

50 minutes ago, Ji said:

This winter is cooked. It’s played its cards already and we lose again

 Lol. Here go with the winter is  done crap   on December 1st lol and  because of a 9 day forecast lol 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'm not buying all this cold Winter stuff being posted about on Twitter because of this 2 week period. It's also surprising that the CPC went below average in the Mid Atlantic for December today. They seem mutable to the current pattern, too. We are in a strongly +EPO/-PNA regime, and there are Summer signal that rolls the NAO forward positive for the Winter (North Atlantic SSTA's). This 2 week cold is actually the first time such a thing has occurred for the continental US in over a year (below average)! 

[winter_warlock]

 The GFS and GEM both have the storm.  That's all we want 8-9 days out!!  Does anyone really wanna be in the bullseye  now???   The way some of u people act ud think you never followed the models lol sad!!.   As long as the models are showing the storm 190 hours  out us all I care about. Thermal profiles 8 to 9 days out  are as reliable as my first wife was faithful. Jesus relax people. Don't jump off  the cliff till we're at within 72 hours out lol

[winter_warlock]

Model hugging 8 days out is just plain stupid lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

0z Euro also has long range -PNA.  Could end up being a near average December tempwise in the Northeast, maybe even slightly above average if things trend that way for later in December. 

[Benjamn3]

I personally think we will be good and cold till around 10th, the pattern will relax for about a week, then it will come back seasonal to below average just before Xmas. I just feel like we may get a break from Merry Torchmas this year.

[Ji]

GFS was close to something for December 11

[Weather Will]

Weather story this week is the sustained cold period....at least it will feel like winter...(WB 0Z EURO)

[Roger Ramjet]

8 hours ago, Ji said:

This winter is cooked. It’s played its cards already and we lose again

Look, I've been on these boards forever, and this just is not funny anymore. Please go back to your summer hibernation!

[Terpeast]

All ensembles show cold air reloading in W Canada while maintaining -EPO at the end of their runs, so any moderation may be short lived (a week, maybe 2)

Still having trouble resolving the dec 8-11 threat(s). Need another couple of days to converge on the most likely solution

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

All ensembles show cold air reloading in W Canada at the end of their runs, so any moderation may be short lived (a week, maybe 2)

Still having trouble resolving the dec 8-11 threat(s). Need another couple of days to converge on the most likely solution

Wonder if the long range stuff is models reverting back to climo state? We saw that last year where beyond D10 guidance kept trying to advertise a solid pattern that never materialized.

[87storms]

All ensembles show cold air reloading in W Canada while maintaining -EPO at the end of their runs, so any moderation may be short lived (a week, maybe 2)
Still having trouble resolving the dec 8-11 threat(s). Need another couple of days to converge on the most likely solution

A moderation sounds kinda nice right now tbh lol

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wonder if the long range stuff is models reverting back to climo state? We saw that last year where beyond D10 guidance kept trying to advertise a solid pattern that never materialized.

They could be trying to revert to a standard La Nina pattern, except they keep maintaining -EPO. But two weeks ago, they were depicting a torch around this time and that was a huge miss. Maybe it’s just a one-off, but with the continued +AAM and the MJO going into 7 and 8 later this month into January makes me think otherwise. The new Cansips seems to have shifted in that direction, too. 

[Kevin Reilly]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

They could be trying to revert to a standard La Nina pattern, except they keep maintaining -EPO. But two weeks ago, they were depicting a torch around this time and that was a huge miss. Maybe it’s just a one-off, but with the continued +AAM and the MJO going into 7 and 8 later this month into January makes me think otherwise. The new Cansips seems to have shifted in that direction, too. 

I am an amateur on here really but in regard to the MJO I was looking at the word wide water vapor map and a few things stuck out to me and that was increasing tropical development just to the east of Tonga and south of Samoa out in the Southwest Pacific not sure that helps us invigorate a southern jet which is now flat and closed to us in Central Mexico and the Central Gulf of Mexico and out to sea off the Bahamas. 

I also saw a trough slipping SE through the Aleutians and a vigorous low to the southwest of the Aleutians slipping east southeast wondering if that begins a -PNA phase on the West Coast. 

[WxUSAF]

49 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

All ensembles show cold air reloading in W Canada while maintaining -EPO at the end of their runs, so any moderation may be short lived (a week, maybe 2)

Still having trouble resolving the dec 8-11 threat(s). Need another couple of days to converge on the most likely solution

Webb posted this elsewhere, I think it’s Roundy’s low frequency forcing prog. It’s not always perfect, but this is a solid look by Xmas week. Maybe it’s rushing it a bit, but this pattern probably recycles throughout the winter and with a predominant -EPO, our source region will stay cold. 
 

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

They could be trying to revert to a standard La Nina pattern, except they keep maintaining -EPO. But two weeks ago, they were depicting a torch around this time and that was a huge miss. Maybe it’s just a one-off, but with the continued +AAM and the MJO going into 7 and 8 later this month into January makes me think otherwise. The new Cansips seems to have shifted in that direction, too. 

The GEFS has backed off on the idea of digging a trough out west the past few runs.

The extended products imply a trough could be back in the east the last week of December.

[cbmclean]

32 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Wonder if the long range stuff is models reverting back to climo state? We saw that last year where beyond D10 guidance kept trying to advertise a solid pattern that never materialized.

Exact same thing happened in Jan/Feb 2019.  Models kept trying to revert to an eastern trough at D15.  It was discussed that this may have been the models trying to predict a Nino base state that was continually overwhelmed by other forcing.  I also seem to member @psuhoffman mentioning that the LR kept trying to revert to Nina base state in ... dare I mention it...2013-2014.