CAPE Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 18z GFS looks much like 12z and not nearly enough like 6z for the Dec 8th potential storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 I don't hate the GFS. Was never really in for a flush hit with next week's system. But i like how very cold air is lurking just to the N, so who knows what can happen with some timing tweaks. Going into Dec, regardless what happens, this just has a different feel than recent years. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: 18z GFS looks much like 12z and not nearly enough like 6z for the Dec 8th potential storm. 9 days out lol don't read alot into it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 30 Author Share Posted November 30 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: 9 days out lol don't read alot into it Yeah, even the ensembles are shifting. Too chaotic to get a good read on it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Just now, Terpeast said: Yeah, even the ensembles are shifting. Too chaotic to get a good read on it. I agree!!. Me personally I just look for trends a week and a half out. Model hugging 10 days out with the way models change is just plain. Stupid lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 25 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: 9 days out lol don't read alot into it Just stating what the run depicts wrt previous runs, in a nutshell. I don't get emotionally attached to specific outcomes that are determined by imperfect simulations of wave interactions and timing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 50 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I don't hate the GFS. Was never really in for a flush hit with next week's system. But i like how very cold air is lurking just to the N, so who knows what can happen with some timing tweaks. Going into Dec, regardless what happens, this just has a different feel than recent years. Would be nice to get 3"-5" regionwide then a dryslot. Then we get back into cold weather in a day or two. Just don't want it immediately melted off or washed away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 30 Author Share Posted November 30 Don’t look now, but new Cansips now predict a NN DJF for our sub. Previous run was a torch. Source: Eric webb’s tweet Old runs from TT: 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Don’t look now, but new Cansips now predict a NN DJF for our sub. Previous run was a torch. Source: Eric webb’s tweet Old runs from TT:We’ll see if dr no way does the same thing. Near normal now a days is cold lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 3 hours ago, CAPE said: The pattern change is probably temporary is the takeaway. Why do you care if its milder the second half of December? It just doesnt snow much in these parts until after Xmas- that's reality. Let the pattern become favorable again when we actually have a chance. I care very much if its milder in the 2nd half of December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 2 minutes ago, Ji said: I care very much if its milder in the 2nd half of December. The Xmas torch is the most consistent aspect of our climate. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: The Xmas torch is the most consistent aspect of our climate. Sadly true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The Xmas torch is the most consistent aspect of our climate. like in 2022-23? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 3 minutes ago, Ji said: like in 2022-23? It was 55 at BWI on the 23rd and 66 later that week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 8 hours ago, TSSN+ said: 12z pain train This is the solution it never fails. Also look no high up north again. Our normal winter has returned nice! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Good to see 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 The advertised h5 look for the week leading up to Xmas day on the latest Euro Weeklies. Surface temps as depicted are below avg, so perhaps not the dreaded Merry Torchmas. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 1 Author Share Posted December 1 1 minute ago, CAPE said: The advertised h5 look for the week leading up tp Xmas day on the latest Euro Weeklies. Surface temps as depicted are below avg, so perhaps not the dreaded Merry Torchmas. Yeah that’s a chilly look. Flow is fast, though. +nao keeps things moving along, but that in combination with the -epo also “fixes” the PV on our side of the globe (as opposed to the other side) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 4 hours ago, CAPE said: The pattern change is probably temporary is the takeaway. Why do you care if its milder the second half of December? It just doesnt snow much in these parts until after Xmas- that's reality. Let the pattern become favorable again when we actually have a chance. If it was just a two-week "milder" spell, around normal +/- a few degrees, I wouldn't have a problem with it. But since the -PDOom period started (by that I mean ~2018 or so) every single Pacific crappy period has been long-lasting and with major warm anomalies. MAYBE this year is different with the EPO ridging tendency. I guess we'll see soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: The advertised h5 look for the week leading up to Xmas day on the latest Euro Weeklies. Surface temps as depicted are below avg, so perhaps not the dreaded Merry Torchmas. If this is a general idea of what our base state will resemble this winter, that is not reflective of a Nina. I know we are neutral attm and I'm wondering *IF* enso switches to a weak Nina in January if we may escape the prime climo of winter without any drastic effects. Interesting (maybe not if you've been around as long as some of us) how much of a role enso plays....even minor pertubations. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 If we're not in the 50s on Christmas this year I'll consider it a miracle. Christmas 2015 we had Praying Mantis out and daffodils coming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 2 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: This is the solution it never fails. Also look no high up north again. Our normal winter has returned nice! Dude that is 10 days out. Don't read alot into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 I see a few on here getting discouraged about models that are Long range.!! Relax! Jesus i hope people dont start the " winter is over" crap already ! Lmaooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 3 hours ago, Terpeast said: Don’t look now, but new Cansips now predict a NN DJF for our sub. Previous run was a torch. Source: Eric webb’s tweet Old runs from TT: That's quite a bit colder compared to October run!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 26 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: If we're not in the 50s on Christmas this year I'll consider it a miracle. Christmas 2015 we had Praying Mantis out and daffodils coming up. The torch was worth it for the January blizzard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 3 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: The torch was worth it for the January blizzard. Folks downplay that winter because it was one big hit. But dang it look what we've had since! I think EVERYBODY would take that right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 19 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: The torch was worth it for the January blizzard. Blizzard was in January of 2016 i beleive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 GFS looks like it’ll come in looking more like it’s past 6z and 0z run than 12/18z. Better NS shortwave and less stuck southern disturbance 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Would of been a blizzard if that sw came east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 1 Share Posted December 1 Better with GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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