Eskimo Joe Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: And that is going to take a strong NS wave to dig southward further west. GFS does this for the next weekend event, while the Euro misses- it does it with another piece of NS energy a couple days later, but yeah as depicted it's a warm storm with low pressure tracking to our west. You wonder if the Canadian and GFS are better at handling the NS energy and therein homing in on a threat quicker than the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 30 Author Share Posted November 30 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: And that is going to take a strong NS wave to dig southward further west. GFS does this for the next weekend event, while the Euro misses- it does it with another piece of NS energy a couple days later, but yeah as depicted it's a warm storm with low pressure tracking to our west. I see what you’re saying. It doesn’t have to completely phase, the NS just needs to dig enough to pick up energy from the SW. the CMC does it too. Euro completely misses by hundreds of miles, and then completely phases with a second NS wave. Drastically different solutions, very low confidence forecast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Just now, Terpeast said: I see what you’re saying. It doesn’t have to completely phase, the NS just needs to dig enough to pick up energy from the SW. the CMC does it too. Euro completely misses by hundreds of miles, and then completely phases with a second NS wave. Exactly. Need some interaction to get that energy involved. What the GFS does here is ideal- 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Exactly. Need some interaction to get that energy involved. What the GFS does here is ideal- the ECMWF actually made a pretty drastic shift towards a more potent NS. hopefully it isn’t just a blip, because it’s much more similar to the GFS than 00z 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 10 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm curious...anywhere I can see what the SSTs were for one of our major coastal storms? December 19, 2009, we had 23.2" of snow and the SST at ACY was 53f. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: You wonder if the Canadian and GFS are better at handling the NS energy and therein homing in on a threat quicker than the Euro? There are so many shortwaves embedded in the NS flow its chaos this far out. The character of the western ridge at specific times is critical too- the axis, whether its more amped or broader.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 3 hours ago, CAPE said: The Euro otoh progresses the ridge axis further east with somewhat lower amplitude, the NS energy in the flow doesnt dig south enough, and it keeps the southwestern energy buried underneath with no interaction. Well, I see we are truly back to the good old days with Euro burying energy out west and GFS sending the energy out all at once to create our snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the ECMWF actually made a pretty drastic shift towards a more potent NS. hopefully it isn’t just a blip, because it’s much more similar to the GFS than 00z Looks like a step in that direction. See what happens over the next few runs. The GFS will probably come up with completely different evolution lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 30 Author Share Posted November 30 24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the ECMWF actually made a pretty drastic shift towards a more potent NS. hopefully it isn’t just a blip, because it’s much more similar to the GFS than 00z Are you looking at that energy over Alberta/Montana? Its so chaotic its hard to pick out the individual pieces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 16 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Are you looking at that energy over Alberta/Montana? Its so chaotic its hard to pick out the individual pieces yes, the piece over Western Canada that wasn’t really there at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 30 Author Share Posted November 30 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: yes, the piece over Western Canada that wasn’t really there at 00z I figured, yeah. Lets hope it’s not just a blip, but a start of a trend. I think canadian has a compromise between the two camps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 4 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: December 19, 2009, we had 23.2" of snow and the SST at ACY was 53f. Yup. Wind direction matters. You get a screaming east wind and it's sleet city. But turn that into a north-northeast or northeast wind and we're draining cold air from interior New England. Geography matters. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 30 Author Share Posted November 30 06z gfs phases the two pieces even more than 0z old run new run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 I believe 12z ICON would be good for us... the run ends at 180, but 1037mb HP up top in Canada moving east in tandem with the moisture It is a bit slower than the GFS, but it looks to have the same idea. Definitely not in the Euro camp 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 13 minutes ago, yoda said: I believe 12z ICON would be good for us... the run ends at 180, but 1037mb HP up top in Canada moving east in tandem with the moisture It is a bit slower than the GFS, but it looks to have the same idea. Definitely not in the Euro camp Agreed. Slower than gfs, but looks like 6z gfs with how it’s starting to phase the shortwaves. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Fwiw. Sterling mentions next weekends storm in their disco . Always nice when they finally see what we see lol.... "The noted warm up is to be short lived as another shot of cold advection invades the area. On Friday, area-wide high temperatures return to the mid 30s to low 40s, with 20s in the mountains. Another system may loom next weekend, but details vary greatly between model solutions". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 30 Author Share Posted November 30 8 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Fwiw. Sterling mentions next weekends storm in their disco . Always nice when they finally see what we see lol.... "The noted warm up is to be short lived as another shot of cold advection invades the area. On Friday, area-wide high temperatures return to the mid 30s to low 40s, with 20s in the mountains. Another system may loom next weekend, but details vary greatly between model solutions". Yeah, they’re seeing the same thing we are. Just a very low confidence outlook at this point. Let’s hope the gfs/cmc trends this morning converge and the euro caves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, they’re seeing the same thing we are. Just a very low confidence outlook at this point. Let’s hope the gfs/cmc trends this morning converge and the euro caves. Gfs looking totally different at uppers at 132hrs compared to last run. So there’s that… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Not loving what I see on the GFS through 135, less energy diving down from N/S and Baja energy seems weaker more positively tilted. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Gfs looking totally different at uppers at 132hrs compared to last run. So there’s that… Yeah and all in the bad direction so far lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Just now, Heisy said: Not loving what I see on the GFS through 135, less energy diving down from N/S and Baja energy seems weaker more positively tilted. . Yup euro wins when it comes to getting trash. It shows a snow storm at 180 it’s wrong but a cutter boom lock it in lol 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Yeah and all in the bad direction so far lolWe can’t even enjoy anything for 24 hours 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Just now, WxUSAF said: Yeah and all in the bad direction so far lol Yup totally expected. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Yup totally expected. lol Now the EURO will have it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 CMC looks somewhat intriguing at 144 hours see if it can produce anything though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 It does look like it wants to bring out the Baja low but idk if it will have enough juice from the N/S to create a strong enough low.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 12z pain train 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: 12z pain train That's 10 days out. It will change lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Just now, winter_warlock said: That's 10 days out. It will change lol Cutter lock it in haha. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Hey guys I wouldn't get to discouraged about any modeling right now.. Its still 8 to 9 days out. It will change many times before we get inside 72 hours!! I wouldn't wanna be in the bullseye this far out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now