Jebman Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 34 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Then the west will dry out and the Mid Atlantic will turn very cold and become very active with numerous opportunities to maximize snow potential. Sorry, Palisades and Mammoth. It's the Mid Atlantic's turn this winter. Reminds me of 2013-14 hmmmmm......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm curious...anywhere I can see what the SSTs were for one of our major coastal storms? Yeah, I did know but, can't remember right off. Noaa I think has those Archived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 00z GFS looks good at 186... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 00z GFS looks good at 186...Mod snow everywhere at 192Is this the first LR threat we’ve had sustain for two runs in a row? We back? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Solid 5-8” through 1am 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Mod snow everywhere at 192 Is this the first LR threat we’ve had sustain for two runs in a row? We back? We got it under 200 hours lol 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 the 8th might be trending towards a legit storm risk… more STJ involvement due to the Baja energy becoming more progressive, confluence is in place, Arctic airmass leading in, and ideal Pacific pattern 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Favorite part of that run - temps are mid to low 20s. Cold smoke. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Love the GFS! It’s good to at least see the possibilities popping up. Let’s hope it’s the December to remember. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 00z CMC is about a day later than the GFS, and drops a major ice storm into GA/SC/NC Nice hit for S VA into NC snow wise... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z CMC is about a day later than the GFS, and drops a major ice storm into GA/SC/NC Big hit for S VA into NC snow wise... Need it to come north a lil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Some of the soundings are fascinating in GA/SC... yes it's the CMC at Day 8... but 30 degrees with freezing rain and 850c temp of +8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 you really want to see these earlier solutions with Baja energy ejecting… antecedent air mass is Arctic. wait longer and you run the risk of losing the confluence and a staler airmass 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 1 hour ago, yoda said: We got it under 200 hours lol Gotta get it to Wednesday morn or it doesn't count, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Of course euro shows nothing and then rain. Hopefully the days of euro reign is over 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 2 hours ago, TSSN+ said: Of course euro shows nothing and then rain. Hopefully the days of euro reign is over Hopefully the days of euro rain is over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 6z also has the MA snowstorm. The GFS depicts near perfect timing with phasing multiple NS shortwaves, and involves significant energy from Baja. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 The Euro otoh progresses the ridge axis further east with somewhat lower amplitude, the NS energy in the flow doesnt dig south enough, and it keeps the southwestern energy buried underneath with no interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Strong signal on the 6z GEFS for a potential event a week out. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 49 minutes ago, CAPE said: The Euro otoh progresses the ridge axis further east with somewhat lower amplitude, the NS energy in the flow doesnt dig south enough, and it keeps the southwestern energy buried underneath with no interaction. Does the Euro bias of burying energy in the SW still exist after all these years ? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 1 hour ago, CAPE said: The Euro otoh progresses the ridge axis further east with somewhat lower amplitude, the NS energy in the flow doesnt dig south enough, and it keeps the southwestern energy buried underneath with no interaction. Not saying it's wrong but the euro, even after the upgrades, has been notorious for holding energy back in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 37 minutes ago, frd said: Does the Euro bias of burying energy in the SW still exist after all these years ? Ha! Yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 30 Author Share Posted November 30 0z CMC more similar to GFS than the Euro. Just a day later. Same with ens. The canadian has been doing just as well as these two so I wouldn’t sleep on the canadian. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 30 Author Share Posted November 30 However! The canadian ens shows 2 waves, one on 12/9 and 12/11… which tells me that geps is split between gfs and euro camps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 41 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Not saying it's wrong but the euro, even after the upgrades, has been notorious for holding energy back in the SW. No idea which one is 'more correct'. Possibly neither. I was just explaining what leads to such different outcomes in the current GFS/Euro simulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 30 Author Share Posted November 30 1 minute ago, CAPE said: No idea which one is 'more correct'. Possibly neither. I was just explaining what leads to such different outcomes in the current GFS/Euro simulations. The key is getting that sw energy to eject early enough. Dec 8 or 9 will work, but dec 10 might be too late as the pattern relaxes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: No idea which one is 'more correct'. Possibly neither. I was just explaining what leads to such different outcomes in the current GFS/Euro simulations. Makes perfect sense tbh. The energy in the SW, more often than not, seems to hold the key to many of out trackable events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Makes perfect sense tbh. The energy in the SW, more often than not, seems to hold the key to many of out trackable events. Yeah esp when the pattern is NS dominant. Difficult to get a good moisture feed with modest waves embedded in a dominant flow from the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 14 minutes ago, Terpeast said: The key is getting that sw energy to eject early enough. Dec 8 or 9 will work, but dec 10 might be too late as the pattern relaxes And that is going to take a strong NS wave to dig southward further west. GFS does this for the next weekend event, while the Euro misses- it does it with another piece of NS energy a couple days later, but yeah as depicted it's a warm storm with low pressure tracking to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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