December Medium/ Long Range

[CAPE]

  On 11/29/2024 at 11:38 PM, WxUSAF said:

GEFS has some nice hits next weekend 

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And also a few days later. 

Pretty persistent signals for those 2 windows.

[Terpeast]

  On 11/29/2024 at 11:38 PM, WxUSAF said:

GEFS has some nice hits next weekend 

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Interesting run, yes. Mean is washed out, but there is a signal within. The op shows one of these possibilities  

[Eskimo Joe]

^Oh yea big 1030+ high baby. 

[Solution Man]

Busy in here next week. We’ve got players on the table that we haven’t seen in a long time.

[Weather Will]

  On 11/29/2024 at 11:05 PM, Terpeast said:

Are you talking about the Op or ensembles?

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Both.

[frd]

  On 11/29/2024 at 10:51 PM, Weather Will said:

I see why no one talked about the 12Z EURO suite...dry and cold....

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I believe the Euro is over-rated. Have to look at verification scores,  but in the past ten years I believe the GFS, and its ensembles, tend to do better in the Northern stream backdrop.  

[Eskimo Joe]

  On 11/30/2024 at 12:17 AM, frd said:

I believe the Euro is over-rated. Have to look at verification scores,  but in the past ten years I believe the GFS, and its ensembles, tend to do better in the Northern stream backdrop.  

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IIRC, the GFS outperformed the Euro with the 2016 event.

[Weather Will]

Not saying one run of the EURO is correct,  I just said the Euro 12Z suite looked cold and dry.

[Terpeast]

  On 11/30/2024 at 12:30 AM, Weather Will said:

Not saying one run of the EURO is correct,  I just said the Euro 12Z suite looked cold and dry.

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To clarify your point, the dec 7 event gets quashed south but brings a lot of moisture up for the dec 11 event.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Still thinking the pattern is too warm for the Dec 11th storm

[psuhoffman]

  On 11/30/2024 at 12:57 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Still thinking the pattern is too warm for the Dec 11th storm

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There’s a trough in the east on that plot. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

  On 11/30/2024 at 1:14 AM, psuhoffman said:

There’s a trough in the east on that plot. 

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Upper latitude indexes dominate at that time range.. plus it's early Dec, we don't need a trough, we need blue. 

[psuhoffman]

  On 11/29/2024 at 11:01 PM, frd said:

Fits @psuhoffman analog set for this coming winter.  Expect the cold, but most were not snowy years.  

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My one hope is that as we enter a warmer climate maybe the dry isn’t as dry and the cold is still cold enough. It’s a narrow target we’re aiming for though. But 2014 does prove it’s possible. But not the most likely outcome imo. 

  On 11/29/2024 at 11:09 PM, SnowenOutThere said:

GFS just dished up the funniest possible outcome for the 12th window

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I don’t find perfect track rainstorms funny but everyone has their own sense of humor. 

  On 11/29/2024 at 11:31 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

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Ya 2017 and 1951 sucked but so did 2001 and 2009. None of them were good so not sure why you highlighted those 2 specifically. 

[psuhoffman]

  On 11/30/2024 at 1:15 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Upper latitude indexes dominate at that time range.. plus it's early Dec, we don't need a trough, we need blue. 

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Ya well it’s hard to get “blue” even in a trough when the averages are calculated on a 30 year period that ended 5 years ago and it’s continuously getting warmer. The actual average base state right now in a neutral pattern is warmer than the averages those plots are calculated with.  That’s one of the reasons why many times when you look at a long range plot there is no blue anywhere. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

  On 11/30/2024 at 1:27 AM, psuhoffman said:

Ya well it’s hard to get “blue” even in a trough when the averages are calculated on a 30 year period that ended 5 years ago and it’s continuously getting warmer. The actual average base state right now in a neutral pattern is warmer than the averages those plots are calculated with.  That’s one of the reasons why many times when you look at a long range plot there is no blue anywhere. 

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We'll see, I'm 90% sure that in that Hemispheric H5 pattern it's a rainstorm.  Dec 7th is probably our chance in this cold pattern. 

[psuhoffman]

  On 11/30/2024 at 1:30 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We'll see, I'm 90% sure that in that Hemispheric H5 pattern it's a rainstorm.  Dec 7th is probably our chance in this cold pattern. 

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A 10% chance of snow is a better chance than we have most of the time lately 

[CAPE]

  On 11/30/2024 at 1:14 AM, psuhoffman said:

There’s a trough in the east on that plot. 

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Warm trough. The kind that only produces 33 and rain.

Chuck knows.

[WEATHER53]

  On 11/29/2024 at 11:04 PM, frd said:

Not the first time strong highs up North did not funnel in colder air to our region. 

However, maybe that will change with future model runs, as snow cover is increasing up North while the NAO is not going crazy positive. 

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Yes  High needs to be more west.

Pittsburg colder than Boston works best for us. 

 

[Weather Will]

WB SST....ocean anomalies mean a perfect track storm can still be warm unfortunately...

[frd]

  On 11/30/2024 at 2:11 AM, Weather Will said:

WB SST....ocean anomalies mean a perfect track storm can still be warm unfortunately...

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More of a concern if the winds were really sustained from the East for a long period of time. But, yes presently the Atlantic SSTs have been above normal for some time this Fall. + 2 to + 6 degrees F.  

Of note, the great Blizzard of 2003 even turned to sleet here at the end,  because of 1,000 mile fetch of ENE winds coming off the off the Atlantic at 35 to 45 mph.   

 

 

[SnowenOutThere]

  On 11/30/2024 at 1:21 AM, psuhoffman said:

I don’t find perfect track rainstorms funny but everyone has their own sense of humor. 

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Its funny in a sort of Sisyphusian "It will never snow again" ironic way. 

[CAPE]

  On 11/30/2024 at 2:21 AM, frd said:

More of a concern if the winds were really sustained from the East for a long period of time. But, yes presently the Atlantic SSTs have been above normal for some time this Fall. + 2 to + 6 degrees F.  

Of note, the great Blizzard of 2003 even turned to sleet here at the end,  because of 1,000 mile fetch of ENE winds coming off the off the Atlantic at 35 to 45 mph.   

 

 

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The key is have HP to the North/NW. The warmer ssts off the coast can actually enhance a winter coastal storm with a stronger baroclinic boundary. Ofc we would need a cold air mass in place and a synoptic setup that continues the flow from the N/NW as the storm progresses.

[frd]

  On 11/30/2024 at 2:56 AM, CAPE said:

The key is have HP to the North/NW. The warmer ssts off the coast can actually enhance a winter coastal storm with a stronger baroclinic boundary. Ofc we would need a cold air mass in place and a synoptic setup that continues the flow from the N/NW as the storm progresses.

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Would think a clipper is one good option,  in addition to what you mentioned. 

[CAPE]

  On 11/30/2024 at 3:03 AM, frd said:

Would think a clipper is one good option,  in addition to what you mentioned. 

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If only they weren't extinct. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

  On 11/30/2024 at 1:21 AM, psuhoffman said:

My one hope is that as we enter a warmer climate maybe the dry isn’t as dry and the cold is still cold enough. =

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I did see some articles during the 2013-2015 period that said that all the snow in the northeast during those seasons was the result of the climate warming out of the "air is too dry to make flakes" range of temperatures that sometimes happened during the cold snaps of years past.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

  On 11/30/2024 at 3:23 AM, JenkinsJinkies said:

I did see some articles during the 2013-2015 period that said that all the snow in the northeast during those seasons was the result of the climate warming out of the "air is too dry to make flakes" range of temperatures that sometimes happened during the cold snaps of years past.

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We had a big time +NAO in '13-15. The NAO is really underestimated for its precip correlation. A really good Pacific, like we had in '13-15 and a super +NAO will no doubt lead to a pattern that is giving us snow every 3-4 days. 

Here's the Winter NAO precip correlation (default is positive)
 

This is why the Dec 7 storm has a chance, it's not a suppressed pattern. 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

  On 11/30/2024 at 2:56 AM, CAPE said:

The key is have HP to the North/NW. The warmer ssts off the coast can actually enhance a winter coastal storm with a stronger baroclinic boundary. Ofc we would need a cold air mass in place and a synoptic setup that continues the flow from the N/NW as the storm progresses.

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I'm curious...anywhere I can see what the SSTs were for one of our major coastal storms?

[Maestrobjwa]

  On 11/30/2024 at 3:07 AM, CAPE said:

If only they weren't extinct. 

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Me if we get a clipper again:

[Jebman]

  On 11/30/2024 at 3:40 AM, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

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Then the west will dry out and the Mid Atlantic will turn very cold and become very active with numerous opportunities to maximize snow potential. Sorry, Palisades and Mammoth. It's the Mid Atlantic's turn this winter.

Reminds me of 2013-14 hmmmmm.........