SnowenOutThere Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: also has a squall/snow shower come through later in the evening, leaving us with honestly a moderately interesting snow map. Thread??? Good test subject on if we can make a sacrificial thread and then revive it with a second one this year 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 I'll take this kinda storm!! Lol 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 34 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Which years are your analogs? Top 5 were 2008-9, 2016-17, 2000-01, 1950-51, 1954-55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 Looking at radar with snow showers squalls and lake effect all over the place is a long absent sight to see!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Top 5 were 2008-9, 2016-17, 2000-01, 1950-51, 1954-55 50-51 and 54-55 are on the mark but these older ones do give me some pause in our new day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: Our source air looks primed. Having a decent source region is something we have lacked for a long time. Also, SE Canada is going to have a large increase in snow cover over the next couple weeks. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 12z GFS is nice for the 10th to the 12th time period 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 Some nostalgia for u all ..... New York City after a snowstorm in 1888. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 46 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z GFS is nice for the 10th to the 12th time period And it's only 11 days out, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 ...though seeing digital snow early in the season is an improvement over the last couple of years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 29 Author Share Posted November 29 All ens show a trough digging into the OH valley, which is a decent signal for a storm that might bring us snow in the dec 10-12 timeframe (12z gfs op shows this playing out) 0z EPS shows that too, look at the height lines even if the 500mb anomaly colors show neutral. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 These guys say pattern continues in mid December fwiw. Some cold analogs in that group. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: These guys say pattern continues in mid December fwiw. Some cold analogs in that group. Keep the Alaska/Inside Passage Ridge and we're going to score. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 This cold pattern likely to last thru mid month then warm up thru Christmas IMO. No reload evident after mid month on EPS or GEFS at this time. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 Wednesday into Thursday maybe? Afternoon discussion from LWX LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The extended forecast will be defined by a large upper trough centered over eastern Canada with axis extending into the southern US. A series of potent shortwaves are expected to pivot around the trough. The finer details of these features have been variable run- to-run, but as of now one shortwave is expected Monday into Tuesday and then a stronger shortwave Wednesday into Thursday. The deep trough over the eastern CONUS will put the region squarely in a frigid cold air mass, with high temperatures topping out in the low 40s for most of the area through Wednesday, 20s to 30s in the mountains. Wind chills could knock an additional 10-20 degrees off that. With forcing and cold temperatures present, the main uncertainty lies then with available moisture. The deep cold air mass is also expected to be starved of moisture, with less than 1.00in PWATs throughout the extended. The most likely scenario for next week is a burst of upslope mountain snow with each shortwave. However, probabilities of snow east of the mountains have trended higher for the Wednesday/Thursday wave. Recent runs have strengthened this second disturbance, and moisture has trended higher as well, with ensembles showing a range of 0.30-0.50 PWATs. Snow probs for measurable snow east of the mountains, including the I-95 corridor/DC metro, are now around 40-50% for 12z Wed to 12z Thu. If this materializes, not much accumulation is expected given the lack of moisture, but even so the main concern will be timing. Given the extended period of bitter cold, surface temperatures could be near or just below freezing. Currently the better timing for precip is Wednesday afternoon when temperatures are warmer, but a slower system could mean wintry precip coinciding with colder temps and Wednesday`s morning commute. Even light accumulation in these conditions could present significant traveling hazards. As such, we will continue to monitor closely for this potential. For beyond Wednesday, a strong upper low is progged to swing into southeast Canada/the Northeast near the end of the week. While expected to dunk the NE CONUS into another bitter cold air mass, the air mass is also likely to be very dry. Some upslope snow could continue Thursday into Friday, but the better forcing also appears to stay to our north. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: These guys say pattern continues in mid December fwiw. Some cold analogs in that group. Some of my analogs are in there too. Problem is while they are cold most of them were not snowy years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Some of my analogs are in there too. Problem is while they are cold most of them were not snowy years. Sounds like something we're just gonna have to keep in mind and not subconsciously project what we're about to see the next two weeks onto the rest of the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 I see why no one talked about the 12Z EURO suite...dry and cold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 Nice 1046mb High pressure in SE Canada on Dec 7th on the 18z GFS, for that storm threat. I'm actually surprised that surface temps aren't colder with such a strong High pressure to the north.. probably because the NAO is positive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I see why no one talked about the 12Z EURO suite...dry and cold.... Fits @psuhoffman analog set for this coming winter. Expect the cold, but most were not snowy years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Nice 1046mb High pressure in SE Canada on Dec 7th on the 18z GFS, for that storm threat. I'm actually surprised that surface temps aren't colder with such a strong High pressure to the north.. probably because the NAO is positive. Not the first time strong highs up North did not funnel in colder air to our region. However, maybe that will change with future model runs, as snow cover is increasing up North while the NAO is not going crazy positive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 29 Author Share Posted November 29 14 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I see why no one talked about the 12Z EURO suite...dry and cold.... Are you talking about the Op or ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 GFS just dished up the funniest possible outcome for the 12th window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 14 minutes ago, frd said: Not the first time strong highs up North did not funnel in colder air to our region. However, maybe that will change with future model runs, as snow cover is increasing up North while the NAO is not going crazy positive. It could work though, as the Pacific is still favorable at that time and a -NAO dries everything out.. That h5 pattern actually favors sleet/fz rain storm In future model runs, if the NAO trends more positive, it could happen with a wetter storm, and a more -NAO could be a little drier. I like those low's undercutting a ridge in Alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 32 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Nice 1046mb High pressure in SE Canada on Dec 7th on the 18z GFS, for that storm threat. I'm actually surprised that surface temps aren't colder with such a strong High pressure to the north.. probably because the NAO is positive. lol what? That high is north of Minnesota. There is a 1034 HP in SE Canada and its snowing on us with temps in the mid 20s. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 Nice 1046mb High pressure in SE Canada on Dec 7th on the 18z GFS, for that storm threat. I'm actually surprised that surface temps aren't colder with such a strong High pressure to the north.. probably because the NAO is positive. I think those high pressures along with radiational cooling can become more impactful and lead to colder air building up north as the season goes on if the pattern stays on the chilly side. I used to wonder how pressures relate to surface temps and it’s not straightforward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Top 5 were 2008-9, 2016-17, 2000-01, 1950-51, 1954-55 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: lol what? That high is north of Minnesota. There is a 1034 HP in SE Canada and its snowing on us with temps in the mid 20s. With those high pressures it would normally be snowing down to the mountains in northern Georgia. Will be interesting to see if >1030s mb Highs down to the CONUS hold, as we haven't seen that pattern for a long time.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 GEFS has some nice hits next weekend 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: GEFS has some nice hits next weekend It's nearing go time. Won't be long now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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