December Medium/ Long Range

[SnowenOutThere]

GFS shows a nice hit right in the second window people have been mentioning.

[CAPE]

  On 11/28/2024 at 11:04 PM, SnowenOutThere said:

GFS shows a nice hit right in the second window people have been mentioning.

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Overrunning with sprawling cold HP pressing south.

[CAPE]

18z GEFS depicts the same idea.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO, sneaky, colder version of a light snow event on Wed.?

[Weather Will]

We really are in rare air around here....been a long time since all the members at Day 6 are cold....WB 18Z EPS.

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

  On 11/28/2024 at 11:53 PM, CAPE said:

Overrunning with sprawling cold HP pressing south.

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Yes that's excellent. Big high with cold air draining down from interior New England. Cold air damming all the way down to South Carolina. It's like a KU look.

[WEATHER53]

Clippers diving and be like ole times 

[Eskimo Joe]

  On 11/29/2024 at 3:21 AM, WEATHER53 said:

Clippers diving and be like ole times 

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Yup. It's like old times. You come home from work under an ever increasing cirrus shield and a setting sun. You step out of the car and it's a cold, dry evening. Absolutely still.

That night you take the trash out and it just feels like snow. The kind that brings the onset of deep winter.

 

 

[Jebman]

  On 11/29/2024 at 2:21 AM, Eskimo Joe said:

Yes that's excellent. Big high with cold air draining down from interior New England. Cold air damming all the way down to South Carolina. It's like a KU look.

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You guys are overdue, wayyyyyyy overdue, for a genuine Kocin-Uccellini blizzard in the DC Region. That's why it's a KU look.

Just remember, you heard it first from The Jebman.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Long range GEFS has backed off a bit on the shift to warm it was showing a few days ago. Other models didn't agree, and the majority held, although the 2nd week of December is nowhere near as cold of a pattern as the next 7 days. I thought since natural gas was reacting, it could hold some weight, but that 18z GEFS run from 2 days ago is a warm anomaly right now.  Poster - Blizzard of '93 pointed this out at the time.  I still don't know that when storms get more organized, precip falling wouldn't be rain though, as we are near average temps in the long range on most current modeling. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

  On 11/28/2024 at 6:11 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Happy Thanksgiving! 

You know what I'm thankful for? The 'block user' feature on this forum.

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Maybe you just shouldn't post on a science forum.  I'm thankful for such an angelic presence on this Earth that people can be so stupid. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Just delayed a little bit

Current modeling is trending toward a -PNA for mid-December. 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS shows cold and warm members as we head to mid month.  While the control is off the charts negative with the PNA, there is more variability among individual members.

[Weather Will]

Looking at the WB latest EPS weeklies, if I had to guess, it will get milder later this month, but pattern may reload in mid January....not a torch period but seasonable on average.  Seven day snow mean for the mid December to mid January period is highest after the holidays...

[CAPE]

December 5th could be a sneaky chance for something minor. Dec 7-8 and 10-12 continue to look interesting.

[aldie 22]

  On 11/29/2024 at 12:11 PM, CAPE said:

December 5th could be a sneaky chance for something minor. Dec 7-8 and 10-12 continue to look interesting.

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Who cares this is a science board we should only be talking about when the pattern that hasn't started yet is going to break down 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS, couple of these 9 hits would even make Ji happy....

[WxUSAF]

2-4” of snow over 2 weeks isn’t much of a signal for anything in January or February. But it’s respectable for the first 2 weeks of December. 

[Terpeast]

  On 11/29/2024 at 2:20 PM, WxUSAF said:

2-4” of snow over 2 weeks isn’t much of a signal for anything in January or February. But it’s respectable for the first 2 weeks of December. 

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Yep. Our dec climo is like 2” total for the entire month.

[Weather Will]

  On 11/29/2024 at 2:20 PM, WxUSAF said:

2-4” of snow over 2 weeks isn’t much of a signal for anything in January or February. But it’s respectable for the first 2 weeks of December. 

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Lot of misses on GEFS and with the globals too warm on their latest runs not high confidence but we are in the stadium.  Not shut the blinds like most Decembers.

[Eskimo Joe]

  On 11/29/2024 at 2:20 PM, WxUSAF said:

2-4” of snow over 2 weeks isn’t much of a signal for anything in January or February. But it’s respectable for the first 2 weeks of December. 

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Yes. That would meet or exceed climo.

[NorthArlington101]

Since I tend to just focus on the next possible chance even if the odds are bad... I've still got a slight amount of interest in snow showers/mood flakes on Sunday. This isn't the kind of event where I'd expect the ENS to succeed, but the 06z EPS ens have a handful of festive members.

[NorthArlington101]

  On 11/29/2024 at 2:56 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

Since I tend to just focus on the next possible chance even if the odds are bad... I've still got a slight amount of interest in snow showers/mood flakes on Sunday. This isn't the kind of event where I'd expect the ENS to succeed, but the 06z EPS ens have a handful of festive members.

Only checked after I posted - but the 12k NAM, FV3, and RGEM are all "in" for some snow showers. RGEM illustrates a strip that might get dusted. Most of the interested models push something W-E right across the area.

[psuhoffman]

  On 11/29/2024 at 2:20 PM, WxUSAF said:

2-4” of snow over 2 weeks isn’t much of a signal for anything in January or February. But it’s respectable for the first 2 weeks of December. 

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One of the limiting factors to this winter’s potential imo is there was a uniform characteristic across all my analogs, they started and ended cold. But the “snowiest” part of winter was the warmest in all of them!  It’s really difficult for us to get a snowy winter without timing up a cold period somewhere between Jan 10-Feb 20 and that period was universally warm across all the analogs I identified. That leaves us nibbling on the edges so to speak. 
 

It could be worse. We’ve had several wall to wall torches recently.  And there was some snow across our area in December in all the analogs so I do expect we get some snow soon…but it’s probably something small. This isn’t anything specific to the pattern (other than the fact it is NS dominant) just statistical probabilities. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Our source air looks primed.

 

[NorthArlington101]

  On 11/29/2024 at 2:59 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

Only checked after I posted - but the 12k NAM, FV3, and RGEM are all "in" for some snow showers. RGEM illustrates a strip that might get dusted. Most of the interested models push something W-E right across the area.
 

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can move this to the short-range thread after this cycle, but GFS has the snow showers push through around 2am-5am, so maximizing any stickage. Temps are good enough - could dust everywhere but downtown proper.

[MDScienceTeacher]

  On 11/29/2024 at 3:05 PM, psuhoffman said:

One of the limiting factors to this winter’s potential imo is there was a uniform characteristic across all my analogs, they started and ended cold. But the “snowiest” part of winter was the warmest in all of them!  It’s really difficult for us to get a snowy winter without timing up a cold period somewhere between Jan 10-Feb 20 and that period was universally warm across all the analogs I identified. That leaves us nibbling on the edges so to speak. 
 

It could be worse. We’ve had several wall to wall torches recently.  And there was some snow across our area in December in all the analogs so I do expect we get some snow soon…but it’s probably something small. This isn’t anything specific to the pattern (other than the fact it is NS dominant) just statistical probabilities. 

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Which years are your analogs?

[NorthArlington101]

  On 11/29/2024 at 3:52 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

can move this to the short-range thread after this cycle, but GFS has the snow showers push through around 2am-5am, so maximizing any stickage. Temps are good enough - could dust everywhere but downtown proper.

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also has a squall/snow shower come through later in the evening, leaving us with honestly a moderately interesting snow map. Thread??? 

[TSSN+]

  On 11/29/2024 at 3:56 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

also has a squall/snow shower come through later in the evening, leaving us with honestly a moderately interesting snow map. Thread??? 

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Got to give the clipper a little foreplay and get it wet. 

[SnowenOutThere]

  On 11/29/2024 at 3:56 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

also has a squall/snow shower come through later in the evening, leaving us with honestly a moderately interesting snow map. Thread??? 

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Good test subject on if we can make a sacrificial thread and then revive it with a second one this year