midatlanticweather Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 Weenilicious run.. Tempted to post totals.. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 On 11/28/2024 at 4:45 AM, NorthArlington101 said: GFS with a wicked storm on the 7th-8th. Nasty snow thump to mixy ice to mostly a dryslot. Expand Just saw the clown map for that. We definitely abscond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 On 11/28/2024 at 4:45 AM, NorthArlington101 said: GFS with a wicked storm on the 7th-8th. Nasty snow thump to mixy ice to mostly a dryslot. Expand Well a 1042mb sprawling banana to our north in Canada definitely helps 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 On 11/28/2024 at 3:19 AM, Eskimo Joe said: Boy if we get a rug pull . . . Expand You guys act like this doesn’t always happen lol. I don’t even get my hopes up anymore. Just wait for a storm to come inside 4 days before I start to percolate. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 On 11/28/2024 at 4:45 AM, NorthArlington101 said: GFS with a wicked storm on the 7th-8th. Nasty snow thump to mixy ice to mostly a dryslot. Expand Here on this run gone on the next that has been the new trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 On 11/28/2024 at 8:21 AM, yoda said: Well a 1042mb sprawling banana to our north in Canada definitely helps Expand It is what we have been missing in past years but is this real? It is almost like models say this is what should be happening and the next run the same model comes back and says this is what you are getting and reality though in our new set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 On 11/28/2024 at 11:46 AM, TSSN+ said: You guys act like this doesn’t always happen lol. I don’t even get my hopes up anymore. Just wait for a storm to come inside 4 days before I start to percolate. Expand lol at a rug pull on an advertised h5 pattern 2 weeks out. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 Wrt the mini panic over the advertised pattern in the LR, looks like the NPJ core retracts a bit esp on the GFS/GEFS. That shifts the ridge westward some and places lower pressure in the WPO space(trends +). Even if this is real its not like the east coast is going to suddenly go warm. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 The good pattern look for week 2 continues on the three global ensembles. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 Week 2 temps on the ensembles support plenty of cold in the east. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 Looking at the latest operational and ens guidance Dec 6-7th and 10-12 are the 2 'threat windows' that stand out. The second looks especially interesting with potential for significant NS shortwave energy to dig southward and involve moisture from the Gulf. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 Even if the trough retracts westward, it looks more central CONUS-based rather than a deep -PNA as is typical in a Niña. Wouldn’t be a shit-the-blinds look. But let’s see what develops over the next 2 weeks first? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 On 11/28/2024 at 1:11 PM, Blizzard of 93 said: Week 2 temps on the ensembles support plenty of cold in the east. Expand Been a long time since we have seen anything other than transient cold shots. If they still had the channel 4 Bob Ryan golden snow shovel award I’d bet on December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 On 11/28/2024 at 1:35 PM, WxUSAF said: Even if the trough retracts westward, it looks more central CONUS-based rather than a deep -PNA as is typical in a Niña. Wouldn’t be a shit-the-blinds look. But let’s see what develops over the next 2 weeks first? Expand I noted the jet retraction in my earlier post. Seems he expects it to be temporary. As advertised the shift in the longwave pattern is relatively minor, and could potentially allow for a more significant storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 On 11/28/2024 at 1:35 PM, WxUSAF said: Even if the trough retracts westward, it looks more central CONUS-based rather than a deep -PNA as is typical in a Niña. Wouldn’t be a shit-the-blinds look. But let’s see what develops over the next 2 weeks first? Expand Yea west coast ridge is my base level look for any hope of snow or cold in these parts anymore. I really, really hope this is a semi permanent festure this winter. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 Cmc with a nice evolution around day 9. It's pretty obvious the first week of December isnt going to produce but as the pattern relaxes a bit maybe the second week of December can. Ops and ensembles have all hinted at that over the last few days. Hopefully as we get into next week something will show up more concretely. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 A few close calls between the 6th and the 12th on the 12z GFS. Trackable possibilities. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 On 11/28/2024 at 1:12 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 18z GEFS really shifted away from last nights modeling of -EPO/+PNA in the medium-long range. Now it shows a Gulf of Alaska/Aleutian High pressure. Although the pattern may be getting wetter after Day 10, it may just be rain. Expand Happy Thanksgiving! You know what I'm thankful for? The 'block user' feature on this forum. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 Damn Ralph. lol harsh dude. Have one of those big ass stouts and chill. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 On 11/28/2024 at 5:33 PM, CAPE said: A few close calls between the 6th and the 12th on the 12z GFS. Trackable possibilities. Expand GEFS on board EPS too… 14 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 On 11/28/2024 at 6:34 PM, WxUSAF said: GEFS on board EPS too… Expand The 12z Euro- a lot going on here. A bit out of sync with the wave interactions but as is it develops a low in the gulf that tracks up the east coast just offshore of the outer banks. A near hit. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 Dusting-1.5” on euro next week from a clipper 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 Not bad verbatim. Some minor adjustments and some of the juice that is just offshore ends up a bit further west. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 WB 12Z EPS...week of the 8th, let's do this!!! Gobble, gobble!!! 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 Hard to complain about the advertised h5 pattern on the 12z EPS heading into mid Dec. Solid look out west, TPV stretched southward towards Hudson, and indications of +heights building westward into the NAO domain. 13 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 On 11/28/2024 at 8:28 PM, CAPE said: Hard to complain about the advertised h5 pattern on the 12z EPS heading into mid Dec. Solid look out west, TPV stretched southward towards Hudson, and indications of +heights building westward into the NAO domain. Expand Don’t worry, people will find ways to complain. 3 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 28, 2024 Author Share Posted November 28, 2024 On 11/28/2024 at 8:28 PM, CAPE said: Hard to complain about the advertised h5 pattern on the 12z EPS heading into mid Dec. Solid look out west, TPV stretched southward towards Hudson, and indications of +heights building westward into the NAO domain. Expand GEFS is similar, almost identical 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 12z GEFS and EPS are nice. Nothing to sneeze at. Glad that chance of an Alaskan trough seems to be a fluke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 28, 2024 Share Posted November 28, 2024 On 11/28/2024 at 9:10 PM, nj2va said: Don’t worry, people will find ways to complain. Expand We could have the perfect set up. And all of us getting a 3 foot blizzard.. with 20 foot drifts.... and people would complain and say " it doesn't feel very cold " lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 28, 2024 Author Share Posted November 28, 2024 On 11/28/2024 at 9:56 PM, Eskimo Joe said: 12z GEFS and EPS are nice. Nothing to sneeze at. Glad that chance of an Alaskan trough seems to be a fluke. Expand We’d want that trough to either be centered over bering sea or undercut the aleutians. Either would work in getting a west coast ridge 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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