CAPE Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 6 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Here's an excerpt from Archives of the '49 One's : The Blizzard of 1949 is considered one of the worst on record for the northern Plains. The first storm began January 2 and continued through January 5, with heavy snow, strong winds and cold temperatures. Subsequent storms through mid-February produced enormous snow drifts that paralyzed much of the region. The stuff snow weenie dreams are made of. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Thoughts? If blocking manifests the 2nd half of December it could help mitigate the effects of Trough westward retrogression being shown late Month. The SST'S just south of Newfoundland and around Nova Scotia is supportive of LP in that area. That could help pull the Urals HP on Southwestward and pop a legit -NAO. Just my rusty, relic has been opinion. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 8 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Here's an excerpt from Archives of the '49 One's : The Blizzard of 1949 is considered one of the worst on record for the northern Plains. The first storm began January 2 and continued through January 5, with heavy snow, strong winds and cold temperatures. Subsequent storms through mid-February produced enormous snow drifts that paralyzed much of the region. We just don’t get them like that anymore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 9 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Obviously we could go through the whole cold pattern snowless, but I’d bet against getting totally skunked. But we could certainly top out at a dusting or two. Saw a plot yesterday of EPS analogs for its D10-15 forecast (this was yesterday’s 0z run). Couple were essentially snowless at BWI with just a T or two. Several had a light event or two nearby in time (1-3” type deal). Best was 12/5/2002…the OG December 5th storm. Here's the event archive for those of you with faded memories like me: https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/05-Dec-02.html 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Just now, Solution Man said: We just don’t get them like that anymore Yeah, unfortunately not. Man how I miss the good ole days ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 3 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Here's an excerpt from Archives of the '49 One's : The Blizzard of 1949 is considered one of the worst on record for the northern Plains. The first storm began January 2 and continued through January 5, with heavy snow, strong winds and cold temperatures. Subsequent storms through mid-February produced enormous snow drifts that paralyzed much of the region. My father grew up just outside of Dubuque, Iowa and often talked about that storm. His family was running out of coal and his dad took their two Belgian draft horse to get coal with a large wood sled. Said his dad almost didn't make it home because the horses were exhausted and stopped about a half mile from the house. He took them across the fields because most of the snow blew off in the wind. He managed to get the horses back to the barn or the horses would have froze to death in the cold and wind. They lived on High Ridge Road in Joe Davies Co. Illinois. The "High Ridge" name for the road was because it was the highest road around, with nothing to block the wind. Said it howled for days and was the only storm he ever encountered that was on par with the mid-west blizzard of 78, which we lived through in Ohio. That is the one I'll never forget because of the wind. We had drifts 20+ feet high too. Many roads were closed for weeks until the snowblowers from Dayton Airport and Wright Patterson AFB came out to dig through the drifts. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 1 minute ago, RDM said: My father grew up just outside of Dubuque, Iowa and often talked about that storm. His family was running out of coal and his dad took their two Belgian draft horse to get coal with a large wood sled. Said his dad almost didn't make it home because the horses were exhausted and stopped about a half mile from the house. He took them across the fields because most of the snow blew off in the wind. He managed to get the horses back to the barn or the horses would have froze to death in the cold and wind. They lived on High Ridge Road in Joe Davies Co. Illinois. The "High Ridge" name for the road was because it was the highest road around, with nothing to block the wind. Said it howled for days and was the only storm he ever encountered that was on par with the mid-west blizzard of 78, which we lived through in Ohio. That is the one I'll never forget because of the wind. We had drifts 20+ feet high too. Many roads were closed for weeks until the snowblowers from Dayton Airport and Wright Patterson AFB came out to dig through the drifts. Good memories. My Uncle lived in NW Ohio during '78 Blizzard and said drifts were up to their 2 Story Windows. There's several great Articles with Pics , Videos and Interviews regarding it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 14 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Good memories. My Uncle lived in NW Ohio during '78 Blizzard and said drifts were up to their 2 Story Windows. There's several great Articles with Pics , Videos and Interviews regarding it. Indeed. There's a book about the '78 blizzard too. Someone here brought it to my attention several years ago so I bought a copy. Brought back lots of memories. My hometown about 12 miles N of Dayton (where Ohio gets really flat) was essentially isolated for several days until the plows and blowers could get through the drifts on a couple of routes into/out of town. It was getting ugly when the one grocery store in town sold out of everything edible. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 2 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: Thoughts? Looking like it's gonna be a December to remember!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah, unfortunately not. Man how I miss the good ole days ! Amen brother!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 I will say one thing about alot of you in here... ive been a member of AmericanWx for 14 years and I gotta say ive actually learned alot from alot of you in here. Meteorology has been a hobby of mine for many years ( going back to when I was a kid during the blizzard of 79.. remember that one?) And many of u in here have been in here like I have since the beginning back in 2010... and I've learned alot in here..you are a lil smarter then me with this field of study ! So. Thanks!! . It's a credit to u all... but dont let it go to ur heads!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 6 hours ago, winter_warlock said: Im not picky i just want a blizzard to hammer us like this one did in the dakotas !!!! 4 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: That was from the Plains Blizzard of 1949 I think. What a Storm it must have been. There were 20 ft Drifts in part's of my area during the 93 Blizzard and the Great Appalachian Storm of 1950 but, generally in area's above 2500 feet. Yep, 74th anniversary yesterday and today! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 1 hour ago, winter_warlock said: I will say one thing about alot of you in here... ive been a member of AmericanWx for 14 years and I gotta say ive actually learned alot from alot of you in here. Meteorology has been a hobby of mine for many years ( going back to when I was a kid during the blizzard of 79.. remember that one?) And many of u in here have been in here like I have since the beginning back in 2010... and I've learned alot in here..you are a lil smarter then me with this field of study ! So. Thanks!! . It's a credit to u all... but dont let it go to ur heads!! I remember that one. My dad was living at Watergate at Landmark in Alexandria and I got stuck there during that storm. It was so fun jebwalking in it! I was only 14 and damn good at jebwalking back in those days! DC got totally JanuBuried by that one lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 4 hours ago, CAPE said: The stuff snow weenie snowgasms are made of. Fixed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 00z GFS has a storm on the 7th... big snowstorm for i81 corridor, W MD into C MD into PA. Pouring cold rain for some of us, but it's very close to a huge hit for all if its just a tad further south. It's also slow moving and spread out over a few days 00z CMC has a nice 1-3" for almost all on the 4th 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 00z CMC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 00z GFS (it's a 72 hour map because it's spread out over a few days) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 One thing to note is that the NAO will be going positive in about 7 days. All the cold is Pacific-driven. +NAO's in its pure form have as much of a +300% precip difference than -NAO's.. so models may not dry up getting closer if we keep this -epo/+nao pattern. +PNA's are dry though. -epo/+pna/+nao patterns produce 2-6" events, but Balt/DC only average 2-3" in Dec so keep that in mind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 0z GEFS has a big uptick in precip after Day 10, which is great if the Pacific +PNA/-EPO pattern holds. We've seen so much +epo/-pna lately though, that that H5 pattern holding is the real key. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 3 hours ago, yoda said: 00z GFS (it's a 72 hour map because it's spread out over a few days) LOL, well no worries that'll ever happen. I live in CPA so that will never verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Various model simulations over recent days have depicted an east coast winter storm in the Dec 7-10 window. The 6z GFS does it again with some good upstream interaction between pieces of vorticity, resulting in a stronger/sharper shortwave that digs further south. 13 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Enough models showing something late next week (Thursday-Friday) to have that as the first real window to watch. But pretty scattershot set of solutions obviously. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 WB 6Z GEFS....does not support the 300 hour GFS fantasy range map. I have been fooled too many times by GFS at Day 5....looking at the GFS at day 12 is just setting one up for disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GEFS....does not support the 300 hour GFS fantasy range map. I have been fooled too many times by GFS at Day 5....looking at the GFS at day 12 is just setting one up for disappointment. The most you can determine might be a favorable window. Not too mention, but a Nina with an active Northern jet is extremely difficult to model in the long range. Expect the unexpected. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 9 hours ago, wxdude64 said: Yep, 74th anniversary yesterday and today! Damn.. 74 years!!! Well before I was born lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 37 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GEFS....does not support the 300 hour GFS fantasy range map. I have been fooled too many times by GFS at Day 5....looking at the GFS at day 12 is just setting one up for disappointment. Don't be fooled again.. OP runs are higher resolution. Subject to large variations from run to run in the long range. Ensembles are perturbed and run at low res and often are not able pick up on specific details of wave interactions in the LR. They are imperfect tools used as guidance for objective analysis and forecasting. The idea of being "fooled" is emotional and based on misconceptions. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GEFS....does not support the 300 hour GFS fantasy range map. I have been fooled too many times by GFS at Day 5....looking at the GFS at day 12 is just setting one up for disappointment. I wouldnt put alot of stock in anything being shown for day 12 anyway lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 53 minutes ago, CAPE said: Don't be fooled again.. OP runs are higher resolution. Subject to large variations from run to run in the long range. Ensembles are perturbed and run at low res and often are not able pick up on specific details of wave interactions in the LR. They are imperfect tools used as guidance for objective analysis and forecasting. The idea of being "fooled" is emotional and based on misconceptions. I mean, of course the ensemble doesn’t match a fantasy range storm on the Op? GEFS does show a lot more precipitation coming out of the gulf and southern plains by late next week though. Clearest signal seems to be around the 10th, but that’ll probably change. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 2 hours ago, frd said: The most you can determine might be a favorable window. Not too mention, but a Nina with an active Northern jet is extremely difficult to model in the long range. Expect the unexpected. Pretty sure we are enso neutral attm? If it even matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 I'm still watching Sat night/Sunday morning as the GFS has a wave tracking to our south and suggests precip makes it over the mtns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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